Does the timing/order of the conventions make a difference?

[fujiyama]

I forgot when the dem. convention will be, but I think it's either in June or July.

As we know the GOP's is in September, timed nicely to exploit 9/11.

Well, does the timing make a difference? Kerry will definetely get a boost from his convention and VP pick. Unfortunately Bush will also probably get a boost from his convention. Since his is closer to the election, will that matter? After all there's quite a big gap between the dem and gop conventions. Post convention bounces only last so long. Doesn't the effect start fading after a while?

I'm curious if this has been the case in past elections -- whether there is a correlation between the timing/order of the conventions and a win.

[yorgatron]

1. Bush et al will be humiliated

by the outcry of new yorkers furious at their failure to prevent 9/11,followed by a sharp slide in the polls until the election,where they will only take 3 states in the electoral college.

[JI7]

2. the debates will come after both conventions

the bush people purposely timed their convention to be around 9/11 anniversary so they can try to gain from terrorism/war etc issues. this is also why their convention is being held in nyc.

but the debates that come after will probably matter more. michael dukakis's response to the death penalty question was one thing that hurt him. people didn't think he was "emotional" enough in his response. but mostly the debates reinforce or change perceptions people may have of someone. and that was the case with dukakis. he had been attacked the entire time for being soft on crime and other crap and his response to the death penalty confirmed that to them.
pappy bush had been called "out of touch" and when he looked at his watch that confirmed it for people also.

[RoyGBiv]

3. Canceling Influence

From my observations, they tend to cancel each other out. The conventions today -- the televised portions of them anyway -- merely serve to energize the party. So, the Dems get a bump from theirs, and then the Repugs get a bump later that puts it back about to where it was.

As another said in this thread, the debates come after that, and they do more to define things. It's also after the conventions that the slash and burn stage of campaign ads will start flooding the airwaves.

Maybe I'm being too optimistic here, but I'm thinking that the RNC convention being in New York could backfire on them. New Yorkers aren't real happy with Junior at the moment. He's consistently cut their funding for anti-terrorism, which in turn has hurt the fire department and police. Repugs in New York are trying like hell to spin this or sweep it under the rug, but the people being affected by this are represented by unions who aren't letting it die. There will be a lot of anti-Bush sentiment surrounding the convention.