A hypothetical....

[skooooo]

If Hillary *somehow* gets the nomination of the D party, and Obama registered as an independant candidate, would he have a chance of winning??

It would be

Clinton V. McCain V. Obama

What do you think?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. McCain would win easily with 40-44%

Something like this:

DEM Hillary-36%
REP McCain-44%
IND Obama- 20%

Just for laughs, with Hillary and Obama reversed:

DEM Obama-42%
REP McCain-44%
IND Clinton- 14%

[ThatBozGuy]

2. That is exactally the reason the DNC is letting Ms Clinton stay in the current campaign.

If they closed her options within the party as the vote to date has reflected, she would simply replace the DNC with the national structure she has already created for just such a purpose.

She has already demonstrated that where the parties interest diverge with her campaign she is willing to forge her own interest above the general interest.

The later she is removed from the nomination the less time she has to gain traction to disenfranchise the party in an independent retaliatory campaign.

While she has acted as a spoiler in confidence in Mr Obama and impacted a few of the skirmishes last week she has done nothing in context of the whole battle to impact him, in fact Ms Clinton's bounce was maintained for less than 72 hours and has been nullified and overcome with an In cease acroos the board for Mr Obama.

Just as this victory was hers to lose, and she has, so to will it be her failure as an independent as reflected this week on her McCain blowback. When she and she will,when she fails to gain the nomination, steps outside the party she will be too late in the game to gain traction against the large loss of those democrats that support her as a democrat. It will be to easy to recognize that she is not for the people she claims when she throws the DNC under the bus as she has her fellow Democratic candidates.

[JVS]

5. The national structure that lost every blue state in the midwest?

har dee fuckin har

[Exilednight]

6. It's to late, even for Hillary, to get on the ballot for the GE in several states......

All 50 states have a reserved place for the two parties, but unless you're getting signatures now, you're SOL for getting on the ballot in many states. Most states only offer a 3-5 week window to gather the required signatures.

However, she does have the infrastructure in place to break the party in half and spin the DLC into its own direction. I'm curious to see the fallout from this election no matter who wins.

[LisaL]

3. McCain.

Since Clinton and Obama will split the vote.

[Ken Burch]

4. I think it's a poisonously inflammatory thing to suggest it.

Obama isn't that stupid. He knows that would end his political future.

If Bloomburg had run, though, we could assume a lot of HRC people would back him against Obama, and for the ugliest reasons.
(note, the last sentence is no uglier or more inflammatory than your thread thesis).

[Political Heretic]

7. Interesting phone call with my Dad: this is what he should threaten the SDs with

I have to be honest with you... one night when I was one the phone with my dad, and I was having one of those moments where I just felt like a ruthless political operative without a conscious or a soul and whatnot. And I wasn't advocating that he really do this, and I wasn't suggesting that I think it would be a good or decent thing to do...

...but I pointed out to my Dad that if Obama wanted to sow this thing up right now, all he'd need to do is round the SD's all up and say, here's the way it is - I have the most pledged delegates, I have the popular vote, I have the most states won, and I have the most money - and if you don't come over and endorse me right now so that we can close this nomination and start focusing on the general, I am going to run for Independent and Democratic party will lose to either me or McCain - you're call. You've got five minutes to choose.

:)

Of course, in the real world, if he did that, I probably wouldn't support him - and I'm pretty sure a lot of other Obama supporters would drop him too. But sometimes its fun to just think as ruthless as you can. :)