A challenge to one and all! Using the Forbes delegate calculator, come up with a winning scenario!

[XemaSab]

How does YOUR candidate pull off delegate victory? :shrug:

Map out a realistic scenario, a crazy scenario, do what you will... but how does it go down? :shrug:

And for the superdelegates, what are they thinking when they make their choices? :shrug:

http://www.forbes.com/2008/02/27/obama-clinton-election-oped-cx_jb_0227delegates.html

(And remember to plug in Obama's 60% victory for Wyoming :) )

[XemaSab]

1. I have a scenario!

Right now Obama's at 1,580 and Hillary's at 1,469, according to this calculator!

Each candidate needs 2,025 delegates to win.

What happens if they split the superdelegates and all the elected delegates 50-50?

Wow! If that happened, Obama would be at 2,050, and he would win the nomination!

This is really cool! :D

[Spider Jerusalem]

2. What I came up with:

After putting in the results for Wyoming, today, and giving Obama 60% in Mississippi (which is reasonable; I expect it to be more like 70%), Pennsylvania, Guam, OR, KY, and SD 55/45 for Hillary, NC 55/45 for Obama, WV 40/60 for Hillary, Puerto Rico 60/40 for Obama, and everything else including superdelegates straight down the middle (which is overall, I think, a better scenario for Hillary than she can reasonably expect)...the totals are 2050 Obama, 1944 Clinton.

[XemaSab]

3. You broke the states down differently than I did when I was trying to guess how it would pan out

I put Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota firmly in the Obama column.

I gave Obama 60% in Oregon, Montana, North Carolina, and SD, and 55% in Mississippi. These are based on surrounding states, for the most part. Guam I threw into the Obama column with 60% as well, but this is just a guess.

I gave Hillary 55% in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky. This seems to be about what her wins in bordering states are. I gave her 70% in Puerto Rico, just for chuckles, and I split Indiana 50/50.

This would give Obama 1,872 and Hillary 1,775.

In order to win under this scenario, Obama would need 45% of the superdelegates, but Hillary would need a whopping 73%.

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Under virtually the same scenario, if Hillary were to win 70% of the vote in Pennsylvania, she would still need 67% of the superdelegates.

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Looking at how you've got it pencilled out, without the SD's, Obama's at 1,877 and Hillary's at 1,771.

Hillary again needs a happy 74% of the superdelegates, but Obama only needs 43%.

Even if you give Hillary a 5% bump right on down the list, giving Obama victories in only Mississippi and Puerto Rico with a tie in North Carolina, he'd only need 52% of the superdelegates to win the nomination. Hillary, on the other hand, would still require 65% of the remaining superdelegates.

[Spider Jerusalem]

5. I was playing devil's advocate with my scenario...

being more generous to Hillary's chances than I honestly expect them to be, just to see how much of a margin she gains. The numbers don't move into her advantage without significant wins by large margins; giving Obama 60% in MS, 55% on NC, and Hillary 58% in every other contest results in a dead heat. (And I genuinely expect Obama to win Montana, Oregon, probably South Dakota, Puerto Rico, and possibly Indiana.

Most of the reasonable (I think) scenarios I can come up with show Hillary trailing by 100+ delegates, less supers (and in some cases 150) going into the convention.

[XemaSab]

6. Gotcha

She'd have to win Pennsylvania with 85% of the vote to close the gap.

Even then, she could get 55% in literally every other state, and with 50% of superdelegates, still not seal the deal.

53% of superdelegates would do it for her, but Obama would need 65% to win despite big losses in the rest of the primaries.

[XemaSab]

4. The magic number for Hillary appears to be 59%

If she takes 59% in every remaining state, plus 59% of the superdelegates, she will reach 2,025.

The magic number for Obama is 47%. He would have to get this in every remaining state, plus 47% of the superdelegates, in order to be the nominee.

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Just for wierdness, if Obama got 47% in every remaining state, Hillary would need 69% of the superdelegates to secure the nomination. If Hillary got 59% in all the remaining states, Obama would need 58% of the superdelegates to win.