Clinton's momentums stopped by Wyoming?

[PresidentObama]

Some on DU are suggesting Wyoming killed Hillary Clinton's momentum.

Really? How so?

Didn't like 10,000 people vote in Wyoming? 10,000?!?

Compare that number to those who voted in other states. 10,000 people killed huge momentum gained from wins in delegate rich states of TX and OH?

And speaking of TX and OH, they both have a good number of delegates. Wyoming really doesn't. I read that Obama got 7 delegates from Wyoming. 7 delegates killed her momentum?

I don't think so!

[papau]

1. Of course not - and Miss next Tuesday is 40% black meaning 80% 0f primary -if Obama does not get 70%

his playing the race card is becoming less effective - but I suspect he will break 70%.

[PresidentObama]

5. Question- How many delegates does Miss. have?

I think Hillary will do better there than in Wyoming.

Obama of course will still win the state.

[angie_love]

7. Um HOW did he play the race card? Please tell me how.

I love how you conveniently forget that Bill Clinton was the one who compared Obama to Jesse Jackson.

[Colobo]

13. Playing the expectations game?

[Kahuna]

59. Excuse me but what is Clinton doing when she plays to hispanics??

Isn't that playing the "race card?" And she's blatant about it. And she's blatant about playing the female card too. At least Obama doesn't go around saying vote for me because I'm black. You guys kill me with your....nonsense.

[Hawkeye-X]

2. Tell me EXACTLY how Hillary's going to win.. Think about it.

Carefully. Spend 5 minutes before you reply to this post.

[thewiseguy]

3. If you look at the polls before tonight

You would see that Obama was regaining his edge. Both in the Gallup and Rasmussen national polls. The trend is in his favor again.

Hillary had a temporary edge over Obama before last tuesday and she did not do enough to keep it.

And one more thing, Obama got half the delegates in Wyoming than all Hillary got last Tuesday.

[Birthmark]

4. I laughed when I saw that.

Wyoming? lol

[PresidentObama]

9. With the 12 delegates lol. They single handedly killed Clinton's momentum.

According to some DUers...

[Joe the Revelator]

15. You do realize that Hillary needs something like 75% of all remaining delegates, right?

I mean, either your dense, desperate, or parodying yourself.

[XemaSab]

55. If she got 60 percent of ALL the remaining state delegates

PLUS 60 percent of the superdelegates, she would have the nomination.

If she didn't get ANY more superdelegates, she could win 90% in every state and still be 18 short for the nomination.

With a somewhat realistic (?) allocation of delegates in upcoming states, Obama only has to get 23% of the superdelegates to commit to him for the nomination, but Hillary would have to get something like 77% of the superdelegates to commit to her for the nomination, and if it was going to happen like that, it would have happened already. If this 50 delegate bloc comes to fruition for Obama, he'd only need 8 percent more, or 28 superdelegates, to have it locked down.

http://www.forbes.com/2008/02/27/obama-clinton-election-oped-cx_jb_0227delegates.html

(Realistic allocation, in XemaSab land, involves Obama wins of 60% in Guam, Miss, NC, Oregon, Montana, and SD; Clinton wins of 55% in Penn, WV, KY, and Puerto Rico; and a tie in Indiana.)

[Joe the Revelator]

11. Another state that doesn't count, huh? She's lost 29 of 43....what exactly can she win??

[PresidentObama]

16. The states that cost us the last two elections: Florida and Ohio!

[thewiseguy]

19. Maybe we should not invest heavily in to a couple of states

[PresidentObama]

23. Did I say we should invest so heavily in both? The poster asked, and I answered.

I think Florida and Ohio would be important states for the nominee to win.

[thewiseguy]

32. Every state will be important to win

[Joe the Revelator]

37. Why don't we just let them pick the nominee then? Why let everyone have a say?

50 state primaries are for chumps.

[PresidentObama]

45. Are you mentally challenged? You asked a question, and I answered with a response.

[Joe the Revelator]

46. And your response was devoid of any logic

If only two states are important, why waste all this time going through 50 states? Why don't you want to let everyone have a say in the nomination process?

[PresidentObama]

52. Florida and Ohio are very important in the General Election. You're jumping to conclusions...

...based on what I said.

[Birthmark]

25. I couldn't care less if she can win

I wish they would *both* lose at this point and a real Democratic could be the nominee.

But the idea that Wyoming can blunt a Presidential candidate's momentum is a bit preposterous. I'm sure WY is a fine state...but it's kinda teensy in terms of population, you know?

[Joe the Revelator]

6. Hillary's momentum was stopped by math

There is no way she can win the nomination. She needed to sweep everything after Wisconsin and has not been able to do that. She's done and is only working to help her buddy McCain.

[PresidentObama]

12. Wrong. If there was no way she could win, she wouldn't be in the race.

Lie all you want. It won't change anything.

[Joe the Revelator]

17. The world is going to be a tough place for you.

The question is, why IS McClinton still in the race?

[PresidentObama]

21. Immaturely calling her McClinton doesn't change the facts.

You know, the ones you just tried to distort?

[Joe the Revelator]

35. You're not making a lot of sense tonight. Hit the bottle pretty this evening before jumping on DU...

to sound silly?

No facts are being distorted. You just don't want to believe them because living in Neverland is easier for you.

[emilyg]

39. Not nice to name call.

[chitty]

42. Nader's in the race.

He ain't gonna win either.

[PresidentObama]

47. I'm talking about nomination race. And second of all, Clinton is running because she has a chance.

Nader has just gone off the deep end, and even he knows he doesn't have a chance.

[slinkerwink]

8. do you even know the turnout in 2004 was 675 people?

And if 10,000 turned out to vote this year, that's quite a large percentage of the 56,000 registered Democrats in Wyoming.

[PresidentObama]

18. Turnout is high this year. What's new?

[slinkerwink]

24. why are you downplaying the massive turnout? many of those people

came out to caucus for Hillary as well. Why are you denigrating their involvement?

[PresidentObama]

27. Did I say that? I said turnout is high. It's not just in Wyoming.

[ProSense]

10. What huge momentum?

The big-state myth debunked:

State................Obama..............Clinton

California...........2,126,000..........2,553,000

Texas ..............1,358,000..........1,459,000

New York.............698,000..........1,003,000

Illinois...............1,302,000............662,000

Ohio...................982,000..........1,212,000

Georgia...............704,000.............330,000

New Jersey..........492,000.............603,000

Virginia...............627,000.............350,000

Washington.........354,000.............316,000


Total................8,643,000 ........8,487,000

On the popular vote, Obama by more than 150,000 votes.

link

[yourout]

14. She never had any......she did not even win Texas but the media has neglected to mention it.

[Cali_Democrat]

20. Actually California wiped out Clinton's momentum

He got a net +8 delegates from California when the final re-count was certified!!!

:rofl:


Oh ya, she didn't even win Texas

[Lucinda]

22. His net gain was tiny. She did very well and the news stayed with her tonight.

I'm betting she's pretty happy right about now.

[Joe the Revelator]

41. Why are you too dense to understand that NOT winning delegates at this stage does not make McClinton

"happy". She has to SWEEP. Look at the numbers. If you think that the supers are going to support a woman who is still losing states and has less pledged delegates, you're crazy.

[Lucinda]

56. LOL

we shall see....

[cali]

26. nope. her momentum loss is caused by her own negative

campaigning and her comments about her good friend JMac. Dems don't like that. Look for more SDs to back Obama next week and a solid win for him in MS. She never really climbed out of the hole she dug for herself. She actually won fewer delegates this than Obama despiter her "big" wins.

[PresidentObama]

30. Actually, she's had no momentum loss.

That's my point.

[cali]

48. Of course she has. Look at both Rasmussen and Gallop tracking polls

her temporary bump is already dissipating. She really is in big trouble. She's now over 155 pledged delegates back. There is virtually no chance of her cutting that by more than 25 pledged delegates through June. And SDs are going to Obama not her. And look to SDs to interpret Foster's win as due in part to Obama. Her chances are slimmer each day.

[NeedleCast]

28. She never had momentum in the first place

Having a 20 point lead in Texas turned into a virtual tie (one she will lose delegates on) and having a 25% lead in Ohio cut to 10% is not momentum.

[Cali_Democrat]

36. I always wondered about that

Clinton was crushing Obama in Ohio and Texas just a few weeks ago. She nets very few delegates and suddenly she has all the momentum?

[NeedleCast]

43. Nothing but spin

The media loves having a race still going at this point. It's fine with me, I don't care that much, but this race, barring some sort of wild gaff (Obama eats a live baby on TV while discussing his love for Hitler) this race is over. If Hillary had been able to cut the delegate lead to under three figures with OH/TX then maybe it would still be a live race but she's still down by what, 135 delegates and running out of states real quick. Obama will most likely increase the lead slightly in Mississippi.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

29. Look. There Are Some Here Who Simply Have Lost Their Minds A Bit. Forgive Them.

All day I've seen these wyoming posts that are such a stretch, so reaching, such desperate attempts at making it mean more than it is, that I really do think there are some who badly need a break from this place.

No. Of course wyoming didn't stop or create any momentum for either. Anyone trying to portray that is not of healthy mind.

[Quixote1818]

31. She never had Momentum. She was expected to win Texas and Ohio

She won Ohio but lost Texas. Now things are back to normal. She loses Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Dakota, Oregon, Montana, Guam and the nomination.

[C_U_L8R]

33. Nomentum

never had any momentum to speak of

[Radical Activist]

34. Momentum? Losing 13 of the last 15 states isn't what I call momentum.

I call it losing badly.

[4themind]

38. The "net" delegates

Even though he picked up 7 delegates, he picked up at least 2 NET delegates, hillary won delegate rich states, but for example in texas she only won the primary by 4 NET(at least based on numbers from CNN.com) delegates, so just one little state like wyoming could have cut that amount half (pretty crazy when you think about it). She won Ohio by a good margin(10 I believe per cnn), but if the texas caucus keeps the same percentage as currently reported and if the poll numbers from Miss are any indication, she may only end up gaining +3 delegates relative to before March 4th. It's not just the number of delegates you win, but the number you win relative to your opponent, the NET delegates.

Now that's not to say that she hasn't made substantial gains in other areas, like in popular vote, and stemming the potential tide of super delegates, which can help shape the appearance of momentum, but in terms of pledged delegates, at least, she may have gained little to no ground from March 3rd come next week. You may consider multiple criteria as part of momentum, but in terms of one metric(arguably), pledged delegates, she has lost some ground relative to before. It'll be interesting to see how the talking heads discuss this week tomorrow.

[Hardrada]

40. Joementum. Hillmentum, it's all the same.

She's not going anywhere. All Glory be to God on High!

[cooolandrew]

44. Barack won Texas delegate count and a win is a win in Wyoming which is nice

[LadyVT]

49. Do the math! Go Hillary! Momentum =

Obama led Hillary in Wyoming with 2,066 more, out of a total of 8,690 votes

Obama led Hillary in Vermont with 32,100 more, out of a total of 151,380

Hillary led Obama in Texas with a total of 101,029 more, out of a total of 2,818,599

Hillary led Obama in Ohio with a total of 228,781 more, out of a total of 2,186,831

Hillary led Obama in Rhode Island with a total of 33,635 more out of a total of 184,904

So… which is better? a total of 363,445? Or a total of 34,166?

Do the math! :-)

[JimGinPA]

50. Her "Momentum" Was Just Perception - That Perception Has Been Changed...

By her loss today and her impending loss Tues. Plus, questions are starting to be asked of her that she doesn't want daylight on.

[anonymous171]

51. She never had momentum. It's a media illusion.

And they're still peddling it.

[Hepburn]

53. How do you kill off something that did not exist to begin with?

Hillary lost 12 in a row, then won two, and she is back on her losing streak that she has consistently maintained for a goodly amount of time.

Winning two in row is NO MO.

[milkyway]

54. Hillary didn't have momentum. She won two states very favorable to her (OH & RI),

while winning the popular vote in a very favorable Texas by 4% but netting less delegates. In both Ohio and Texas she nearly blew 20 point leads.

She lost today and she will lose Tuesday. There won't be another contest for a month and a half. You can't have momentum if you're not going to be playing any games.

And check out both the Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking polls released Saturday. She lost 3 pts in Gallup and 5 pts. in Rasmussen. That means Obama beat her by about 6-10 pts on polling done Friday, after Ohio and Texas. Her kitchen-sink strategy worked for one week, and now the backlash begins. She's lucky there's no voting for 6 weeks after Tuesday.

[kid a]

57. great post! (minus the ?) nt

[Growler]

58. What momentum?? She never had any

unless falling backwards off a cliff is momentum. She has that; but it wasn't Wyoming that did it, but her own lack of appeal.