Why is the AFL-CIO helping Spector?

[ludwigb]

Warning-right-wing source.
http://www.nationalreview.com/geraghty/geraghty200404060836.asp

I don't understand the strategy here. Liberal interest groups should remain neutral, or cross over to help Toomey, who is more likely to lose in November and won't help Bush among moderates in Penn.

It seems to me that having Spector as the GOP candidate makes it more likely that 1) the seat will stay GOP and 2) Bush will win Penn

[JI7]

1. right winger santorum is from pennsylvania, they don't want to risk

getting toomey in office. he might be more "likely" to lose, but no gaurantee.

[Bombtrack]

2. But there is almost garentee of Hoeffel losing if Toomey isn't the nominee

At the very least, the AFL-CIO should remain neutral, just as the author of this post said.

[JI7]

4. it's worse for toomey to win than hoeffel to lose

i think that's how they see it. they don't want any chance of toomey getting in.

[Bombtrack]

5. I think that the GOP and dem strategist community are better judges than

the AFL-CIO. Bush and the RSC are behind Specter, despite the fact that they would prefur a senator Toomey to a Senator Specter, because a CANDIDATE Specter is so much more likely to hurt not only their senate prospects, but Bush's chances of winning Pennsylvania and therefor the whitehouse as well.

[mrgorth]

8. Do you live here?

Do you have any idea how frightening the idea of Sanitarium AND Toomey being our senators is? A lot of PA is conservative and Hoeffel may very well lose.

[ludwigb]

12. It seems the GOP have us beat in this regard

Our interest groups appear much more concerned with appearing independent, to the detriment of good strategy.

[Freddie Stubbs]

15. It's not about appearing independent, its about public policy

Specter votes with the AFL-CIO almost 2/3 of the time. They would rather play it safe with a guy who will vote with him most of the time than risk having someone who who will vote with them almost none of the time.

[Freddie Stubbs]

14. Sometimes half a loaf is better than no loaf at all

With Specter the AFL-CIO gets someone who votes with them almost 2/3 of the time. With Toomey as the GOP nominee they risk having someone who will vote with them less that 10% of the time.

And if you don't think that Pennsylvania is capable of electing a right-winger to the US Senate, I would like to remind you of this guy:

[Freddie Stubbs]

3. Specter is pretty liberal

and when it comes to issues important to unions, he usually votes like a Democrat. They would rather have him that risk electing Toomey, who never votes for the union position.

[mobuto]

6. He's not liberal

He spouts "moderate" rhetoric but he votes a lot more like his Republican brethren than he does like any Democrat I know. You could make your argument about Lincoln Chafee, but not Specter. Moreover, Specter's a pretty damn smart guy. He's too smart to vote the way he votes.

The AF of L wants to show they're not a tool of the Democratic Party, and of course they're not going to campaign for Toomey. But I still think they should sit this one out. How can a man who consistently votes for Judd Gregg as chairman of the Health, Education Labor, and Pensions Committee be good for organized labor?

[ludwigb]

11. Exactly

Spector is not particuarly moderate when he's still mostly voting the GOP line.

[Freddie Stubbs]

13. He votes with the AFL-CIO almost 2/3 of the time

http://www.aflcio.org/issuespolitics/votes/member.cfm?state=PA&page=1

Which is not that far below Democrats like Mary Landreau.

[JVS]

7. Because their job is to protect their membership, not to do Dems' bidding

If Toomey gets nominated then they will be in a situation where their members will need the Democrat to win. If Spector is the nominee then the members of the union are ok no matter who wins.

[dolstein]

9. Actually, Specter winning could be good news for Kerry

Bush has endorsed Specter. If Specter wins, Toomey's right-wing supporters may decide to sit out the general election.

[ludwigb]

10. Maybe so

I hadn't thought of it that way.

[ButterflyBlood]

19. good point

also, Specter might be beatable. He has always fared worse in presidential years than non. In 1992, his last serious challenge, he only got 49% facing an opponent from the Philly metro area. Since the primary has forced him to spend his war chest, and he has another opponent from the Philly metro area that should cut into his usual margin of wins within the suburbs, I think he can be beat. It'd be tougher than Toomey, but probably better for the Democrats overall.

[JohnKleeb]

21. I like the way you think about Tomney supporters

However I find that one big advantage the republicans have over us is that they can unite easier however, hopefully this will happen number 1 and number 2, Arlen Specter traditionally does worse in presidential election years. In 1992 he beat his Dem candiate by only 49-46% and he outspent her 2-1.

[TheDonkey]

16. We need Hoeffel in no matter who wins the R side

PA has enough Rs in DC representing us.

Toomey would be destroyed by Hoeffel in a state-wide race. Philly loves Hoeffel.

Santorum winning was a cruel joke, his opponent Klink was ridiculously bad.

[Freddie Stubbs]

17. Santorum was elected twice to the Senate

He initially defeated Harris Wofford, who was a sitting Senator who had defeated a former Governor just three years before in a special election.

[NewJerseyDem]

18. The AFL-CIO isn't a partisan organization

Specter tends to be an ally of labor and the AFL-CIO wants to keep any republican allies of theirs in the senate. I'm sure they would prefer Hoeffel but they certainly don't want Toomey in the senate. Their job isn't to strategize about how if Specter loses than Hoeffel might have a better chance. They are just going to support the best candidate in an individual race and Specter in a pure matchup with Toomey is clearly better. Now, I hope that Toomey does win because I seriously doubt that he can win statewide but the AFL-CIO has to reward any republican who even occasionally helps them out.

[Freddie Stubbs]

20. Some people believe that unions are an auxiliary of the Democratic Party

But their job is to look out for their members. Usually that is accomplished by supporting Democrats and their policies, but not always. Some unions are supporting drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge because it would create more union jobs.