ARG Poll (Mississippi) Obama 58% Hillary 34%

[Alhena]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/03/07/arg_poll_obama_holds_huge_lead_in_mississippi.html

About like expected.

[democrattotheend]

1. Glad he's got a big lead, but discouraged by the breakdown

I know he's not going to win the white vote in Mississippi, but 61-22 is pretty discouraging. Hopefully he can bring that number up a little when he campaigns there.

[Zynx]

3. I find that only as discouraging as I find any group voting seemingly monolithically.

The fact voters vote on racial identity at all is disturbing. I don't care who is doing it.

[joeybee12]

6. Yeah, I believe it's a little more understandable when a minority

does it...wanting to see themselves finally represented and all, but I resent the way BO has played the race card to get them on board.

[Zynx]

13. To be sure, but I still don't particularly like it when it happens.

It proves how far we are from overcoming the issue of racial tension.

[Upton]

27. You mean like Hillary has played the gender card?

[WilyWondr]

16. That is quite a leap of "logic".

You are saying that black people that vote for a black candidate are voting for that candidate because they are black?


It couldn't be that they see what the millions of whites that have voted for him are?



It just amazes me how many times I have seen this stupid theory put forward this election season. Like no black person can actually think beyond skin color.

[Zynx]

19. The accusation was being made about the white voters in Mississippi.

[democrattotheend]

24. It wasn't an accusation

Just disappointment at the racial breakdown. Certainly not all or even a majority of white voters supporting Clinton in MS are racist, but we have not seen such a wide gap in support among white voters anywhere else.

[Zynx]

25. Sure we have. We saw it in Ohio.

That gap was simply massive.

[Zachstar]

9. I think he will.

Obama has the ability in my view to break old norms and bring a wave of hope wherever he goes. I think the people of that state will respond well to his presence and their chance to give him a blowout.

[TacticalPeek]

2. If they had taken a vote at last night's Jefferson Jackson Hamer Dinner in Canton.

Hillary would have won hands down, no question.

That poll might be a little like Obama winning the CA popular vote by double digits.

[Alhena]

11. You mean the half-full dinner with lot of people wearing Obama buttons?

[NightWatcher]

4. didnt you hear, Mississippi doesnt count

[4_Legs_Good]

5. Good, but I want 2 to 1!

To really turn things back around. Obama can certainly deliver it.

David

[candice]

7. What is the racial composition of the Dem party in Mississippi?

...in Georgia most whites joined the Republican Party in the 80s so having a candidate which African roots to vote for made Obama a winning candidate. If both candidates were black or both white and both of the same sex, the outcome would be less clear.

South Carolina is another state in which black Democrats are the majority of the party.

[Zachstar]

8. Obama can win 2:1 there if he works hard and clinton continues to be exposed.

But let me tell everyone something. POLLS SUCK IN 2008!!

Did we learn nothing from the last time the poll was way off?

Let us assume that Clinton is winning 2:1 and do what we can to get Obama above again. Because for all we know the people may change their minds later.

We need to continue to expose Clinton for what she really is

And at the same time we need to support Obama's campaign there.

Work to do yall! No need to get too distracted with Polls...

[BigAnth]

10. Are there any polls from Wyoming?

Any idea of what we can expect there?

[IDemo]

18. No polls that I can find, but it's a safe bet he will pick up more delegates

He will gain 4 to 6 net delegates over Hillary, taking a nice bite out of Tuesday's gains for her.

[NDambi]

12. She's going to get her ass kicked in Ole Miss ..no doubt about it..she's lost the black vote.forever

[totodeinhere]

17. Yes, and if she somehow steals the nomination from Obama

she will lose the black vote in November too.

[NDambi]

21. bet on it

[Scurrilous]

14. Gobama!

K & R :thumbsup:

[truebrit71]

15. Ouch...what an ass-kicking that would be!

How's that Joe-mentum NOW Hillary?

[Debi]

20. Well, Mississippi doesn't count

:eyes:

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

22. Hill's got joementum!

[Dems Will Win]

23. I Obama hits 59% het gets an extra delegate, Hil loses one I think

[mohc]

26. On a statewide level

The split will be
6-5 for Obama if he is 50-62.5%
7-4 for Obama if he is 62.5-64.3%
8-3 for Obama if he is 64.3-78.6%
9-2 for Obama if he is 78.6-85%
11-0 for Obama if he is 85-100%

Same would apply for Hillary if she were leading. I think its unlikely either one gets near 78%, so the sweet spot is in the low 60s as that is where the delegate shifts happen. Keep in mind the percentage comes from qualified vote, meaning 58-34 only is out of 92, so you would have to adjust 58 up to 63% (58/92 = 63.04). So if the undecided breaks the way the decided have broken, Obama will be right between getting 7 or 8 state wide delegates, but if Clinton does well she could keep him down to 6.

[Bullet1987]

28. How many delegates are up in Mississippi?

[JackORoses]

30. 33

[Eurobabe]

29. Blow.Her.Out.

[hueyshort]

31. it's great that black people are finally voting in MS

I hope they will consider HRC.

[Zynx]

32. They have voted in relative proportion to their population the last few elections.

The idea that they haven't is some northern myth.

[Gore1FL]

33. For those doing the math at home

Assuming Obama gets 58% and Hillary gets the 8% outstanding in this poll for 42%, Obama picks up 19 delegates, Clinton gets 14.

If Obama picks up 2% of the 8% remaining and Hillary picks up the other 6% for a 60%-40% split, Obama picks up 20 delegates, Clinton gets 13.

If they split the remaining 8% for a 62% - 38% split, Obama picks up 20 delegates, Clinton gets 13. Obama stillpicks up 20, Clinton still gets 13.

If Obama picks up 6% of the 8% remaining and Hillary picks up the other 2% for a 64%-36% split, Obama picks up 21 delegates, Clinton gets 12.

If all 8% goes to Obama, then He picks up 22 delegates, and Clinton is awarded 11.

We are probably looking at a minimum of 7 net delegates for Obama from MS.


That would mean she'd have to get 62% to 63% in all remaining contests to come to the convention with a pledged delegate lead.

She would have to win all the other contests by 54% to come in 100 pledged delegates behind.

She would be 130 behind if she won all the rest with 51%.


Of course she could drop that to a 80 delegate deficit if she gets 60% in PA, KY, PR, and WV and 51% in the other remaining contests....

[VotesForWomen]

34. when's the last time miss. went blue in the GE? yeah, nevermind. nt

[Gore1FL]

35. 1976

When was the last time the Democrats tried?

Writing off states is how we started losing elections. The pickup of the House and Senate in 2006 proves that a little effort can not only make inroads, but change things.

When was the last time we won TX? 1976. Despite losing the delegate totals,I noticed a lot of Hillary supporters are cheering about the pop vote win.

But none of that really matters. There are 33 Democratic delegates there to win. The last time a Democrat won the Democratic primary in MS was 2004.

Everyone of those pledged delegates Obama wins past Huckallree RondPaulm McClinton's total means that many more Super delegates she'll have to convince to give her a party-dividing pyrrhic victory.

As Gov Katheryn Sebelius (D-KS) so eloquently said:

“Sen. Clinton and her campaign surrogates keep deriding Sen. Obama’s wins in red states by saying that her victories in the ‘big states’ are the ones that matter,” Sebelius said. “The right Democrat, like Barack Obama, can carry red states, just like the 14 Democratic governors elected in states won by George Bush in 2004. We can’t tell people their votes don’t matter and then expect their support against John McCain in November. Sen. Obama is reaching to independents and Republicans because they desperately want to change our politics. I hope Sen. Clinton will follow his lead and stop dismissing Democrats that don’t live in New York or California.”

Additionally, it is important to note that Democrats in "Red" states have checkbooks.

So does MS matter? Hell yes it does.

[Harry Monroe]

36. A Mississippian weighing in...

I think Hillary may do better than expected here, because we do not have closed primaries. Since the Republican nominee is settled, we may see a lot of Republicans crossing over Tuesday to vote for Hillary, since she is the candidate they most want to see in the General Election. She'll bring out Republicans in droves; Republicans who would otherwise stay home because McCain is the nominee. She'll be the catalyst that will galvanize and unite all the wings of the Republican Party who will turn out to vote against Hillary rather than for McCain.

[usregimechange]

37. kick!