Electoral map has Kerry and Bush running virtually even

[lancdem]

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

Kind of bummed sbout the latest Florida poll, though. :(

I do think Kerry will win Pennsylvania, however.

[WI_DEM]

1. hopefully Kerry will pull out Wisconsin too

where latest poll gives Bush a six-point lead.

[onehandle]

2. New Jersey is a win for us.

Ohio will be the slam dunk.

[RobertSeattle]

3. I don't get Florida though

Has Bush really "gained" any new voters in FL since 2000? At least Kerry is just barely tied within the margin of error.

[lancdem]

4. Is that one of the states Bush is running tons of ads in?

I did notice that the Florida poll was done before all the recent events in Iraq.

[carpediem]

5. One thing about Florida is that the population is always changing

People are moving here alll the time from all over the country - I would guess it is pretty difficult to nail down what Florida will do at any given point.

Case in point, our family moved here from Wisconsin 1 year ago. On our street we have people from Ohio, NY, Florida, North Carolina, Idaho, Illinois(Chicago), Massachusetts, etc - all moved in within the last 1 1/2 years. These are the ones I can think of off the top of my head on our street of 20 houses.

[RobertSeattle]

6. Good points

My parents have lived in Florida for the past 30 years so my paradigm is "no change" but I think you are right about Florida being a constantly changing place.

[JVS]

7. This looks bad

Almost all the grey not polled states are very likely to go republican.

[lancdem]

9. But many of them don't have a lot of electoral votes

Kerry has a good shot because any state that's close now (green on the map) he'd win because the undecideds go to the challenger, not the incumbent. It's disappointing to see PA and FLA as Bush-leaning states at this point, but great to see Kerry with big leads in Minn. and Mich. and a very good chance to win Ohio.

[GreenPartyVoter]

8. What, Maine wasn't important enough to poll??

Nuts!

[GiovanniC]

10. Check Out the Senate Race Map

on that same page.

[ButterflyBlood]

11. New Jersey and Wisconsin will come our way

there is no way for Kerry to be that far ahead in Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan and Illinois and lose Wisconsin. And NJ will vote for a Republican to the right of Christie Todd Whitman when hell freezes over.

[Nicholas_J]

12. Why?

POlls more current than the Mason Dixon Polls have Kerry either ahead of Bush (Schroth and Associates has Kerry at 49 percent Bush at 43 percent)) or in a dead heat with Bush.
(ARG, Kerry 45, Bush 44). Mason Dixon is already 4 days older than these two polls.

The differences in the regional newspapers that did the polls run exactly towards the political slant of the regions those papers are in. The polls done by Mason Dixon were done for a North Florida Paper, and North Florida is by and large a more highly conservative Area.

The Schroth and Associates poll was done for the St Peterberg Times and the Miami Herald, areas that are more highly democratic. Also for the first time in 40 years a democrat is doing far better among hispanic voters in Florida than a Republican. Kerry has a 22 point lead with hispanics in South Florida right now,and it was largely hispanics who won Florida for Bush in 2000.

Overall, the situation in Florida is more favorable to Kerry than it is to Bush given the state regional factors in Kerry's favor.

Fortunately, South Florida also has a singificantly larger percentage of the staets population

13. The Schroth poll was done March 3 and 4-not current at all!!

Take a look at the poll. It says it was conducted over a month ago. Why are you quoting that one?