Hillary supporters, maybe you can explain something

[WVRevy]

Why is it that before either candidate steps foot into a state, hillary generally has a double digit lead, sometimes as much as 25 points. Then, once both campaigns start in ernest in those states, her lead begins a downward spiral that either leads to a loss or a close win, which is why she isn't making up delegates at this point.

I'm honestly curious as to why you think this is? Why is it that the more exposure people get to both Hillary and Barack, the more likely they are to vote for him over her?

[rug]

1. He's got a tighter campaign.

[BootinUp]

2. Name recognition, familiarity with the candidates. eom

[rosetta627]

39. Wow, you went from supporting Wes Clark to supporting Hillary Clinton

Slumming.

[Fredda Weinberg]

3. HRC starts w/name recognition ... the candidates are equally

charismatic. In the end, the voters break for her.

[panader0]

8. I think you are the only one who thinks they are equally charismatic

[WVRevy]

10. Umm...no, they don't.

27 states to 14 states does not equal "the voters break for her." She had a 20+ point lead in Texas a month ago, and he's going to walk away with more delegates, even if she won the popular vote, simply because the end margin was so close.

So no, they most decidedly do not "break for her."

[Fredda Weinberg]

12. It happened last night in TX n/t

[WVRevy]

13. That would be the Texas where...

...3 in 10 primary voters were in her biggest support demographic, right? The same Texas she was expected to win by 20 points a few short weeks ago?

Yes, she got more votes...and he got more delegates. Again, they campaigned in the state, and her support DETERIORATED while his increased, up to election day.

[madmom]

20. she got more votes, but he got more delegates,, why does that sound familiar?

[WVRevy]

21. Yes, it sounds like the system...

..the founding fathers put in place to ensure places like New York were not given more say than places like Kansas and West Virginia. Got a problem with that, go dig them up and tell them that the "flyover states" shouldn't matter.

Don't like Texas' system? Move to Texas, run for party chair, and work to change it. Quit bitching because he won BY THE RULES OF THE GAME.

[madmom]

25. Hey I can bitch all I want, I can remember not to awfully long ago, when

Hillary had more super delegates and the Obama supporters were yelling "don't let the delegates decide let the voters decide" now that the shoe is on the other foot well...... guess you want it both ways!

[WVRevy]

29. When were Obama supporters saying that?

When he was winning in delegates on Day 1? Or Day 2? Or EVERY SINGLE DAY from the start of voting?

You're confusing pledged delegates with super delegates, and yes, I think they should be told to go sit in the corner if the public decides to vote for one candidate over the other, as they HAVE in 80% of the last 15 contests.

[madmom]

32. I just deleted everything I was going to answer, but I've decided to take the high road and say

nothing, because us rabid Clinton supporters are like that.So I'm done now, go away!

[MonkeyFunk]

37. The problem is New Yorkers

have LESS of a say than Kansas and West Virginia. How is that fair?

[Texas Hill Country]

4. actually...

that trend has changed... she just had to get her campaign in order. The people that decided in the last 3 days went 2 to 1 for Hillary... Ohio was supposed to be tighter and Obama was supposed to win TX according to polls on Saturday... That is a big change.

[Birthmark]

5. Because that is the nature of elections

Better name recognition or incumbent dissatisfaction usually provides one candidate a substantial lead. As the other becomes better known, there is almost always a tightening of the political race.

[Beausoir]

6. Ding!

[Birthmark]

14. Yeah, I've seen a couple of elections before. :)

[Flabbergasted]

7. This is why FL should be redone or kept out IMO. Highly unfair.

[Birthmark]

15. There is no such thing as a do over.

And disenfranchising voters for something their representatives did is unDemocratic. Sorry you're guy lost, but so did mine. Seat the delegates, remove FL's and MI's superdelegates and move on.

[WVRevy]

16. You're right, there isn't

They didn't follow the rules, so thems the breaks. Don't bitch to the party that told you the consequences, bitch to the people that told the party they didn't care about the rules because they just wanted to feel important.

Besides...I hope they DO hold a do-over...Obama would kick her ass in Michigan, and they'd split in Florida. At best, she'd end up picking up yet another paltry handful of delegates, and it would shut the whiners up.

[Birthmark]

18. I see.

So the DNC gets into a squabble with Dems who are super-delegates, therefore, the DNC takes it out on the ordinary Democrats in FL...while the super-delegates still get seated at the Convention. How cowardly!

Look, when we lose FL in November, and McCain wins the White House, the DNC better not come crying to me. I'll laugh in their faces.

[WVRevy]

19. Not saying that. If the supers supported the move...

...then they should be stripped as well. The majority of Dems in Florida supported it, so they brought it on themselves, as far as I'm concerned. Hey, I can sympathize...our state primary isn't 'til May. But again, the rules are the rules.

And again, I don't think it's going to make a difference in November. The choice between McCain and Obama is going to be a pretty stark one, and I can't imagine they're going to vote for the worse candidate out of spite. I mean, they're Floridians...but even they can't be that dumb.

[Birthmark]

22. I think you're making things up

What evidence do you have that the majority of Dems supported moving up the primary. In point of fact, I don't personally know a *single* person that either supported or opposed it here in FL. Most of us have lives to live and if we heard about it at all, it was just another thing in a busy day.

The DNC is afraid of the super-delegates, and so, picks on the little guy.

To the DNC: Seat my delegates or kiss my ass in November.

[stillcool]

24. the way they voted?

The Florida Democratic Party joined the Republican Party and voted to move the date up. Perhaps Florida's citizens should do something about that?

[WVRevy]

27. Exactly

It's not like they randomly decided to do this. It was VOTED upon in the Florida legislature, and the Dems approved it.

[Birthmark]

But THOSE Dems will be seated at the Convention

Dean is afraid of them. Instead, he takes away the delegates of the ordinary people. Smooth.

To the DNC: Seat my delegates or kiss my ass in November.

[Birthmark]

28. Ah, you didn't like the outcome. Got it.

Now, puzzle me this: Howard Dean won't take on the people responsible for moving up the primary, the super-delegates, but he wants ME to do it for him. And he wants to punish me in the bargain. Just how cowardly is Dr. Dean?

I'm shocked and surprised at his facility to pick on the little guy and let the real rule-breakers have their say at the Convention. I had always thought better of Dean.

To the DNC: Seat my delegates or kiss my ass in November.

[stillcool]

33. Your beef...

is with "your" Florida Democratic Party. They voted for this. If you do not want to hold "your" representatives accountable for their vote, that's fine. But Howard Dean did nothing but make sure the rules were upheld. I'm sure that rules do not matter to you, but there are still some people left (obviously far fewer than I thought) in this country, who believe that rules are very helpful to restore a modicum of civility. The only outcome is that Florida and Michigan ruled themselves out of the Primary. You don't like the results? Call "your" State Representative!! Or just bitch.

[Birthmark]

34. No, my beef is with the DNC

It was they who disenfranchised me for something I didn't do. The DNC decided that on their own --just as the FL Legislature decided the date of the Primary.

Now, I may have another beef with the FDP leadership, but that's not really germane to this issue.

And what rule is more important than the right to vote?

[stillcool]

35. So "your" representatives...

broke the rules, knowing what the consequences would be... but you want to hold somebody else, anybody else, accountable? Have you been in contact with "your" representative that voted for this? Just because the citizens of "your" state kowtow to "your" own representatives, that doesn't mean the Democratic National Committee should.

[Birthmark]

36. Nope.

I want to hold those that broke the rules responsible. No problem. Unseat the super-delegates. They've earned it. I'll vocally support that.

But you seem to want to hold them and everyone in their state accountable. It's positively unAmerican.

FL voters did nothing wrong. Period. They showed up in record numbers and made their choice known. The DNC disenfranchises them at their own peril.

[stillcool]

38. What "Super-Delegates"?

are you talking about the pledged delegates? The ones that are allocated based on the votes? You think that because one candidate decided to participate in a non-democratic-primary it counts? How about another Gore vs. Bush? Isn't that where the Clinton Campaign is heading? How many lawsuits they got going down there now?

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/17/a-feisty-bill-clinton-defends-nevada-lawsuit/
CLINTON ALLIES SUPPRESS THE VOTE IN NEVADA...
On Meet the Press on Sunday, Hillary Clinton said her campaign had nothing to do with a lawsuit--written about by Nation Editor Katrina vanden Heuvel--that threatens to prevent thousands of workers from voting in the Nevada caucus on Saturday.
Back in March, the Nevada Democratic Party agreed to set up caucus locations on the Vegas strip for low-income shift workers, many of them members of the state's influential Culinary Union, who commute long distances to work and wouldn't be able to get home in time to caucus. It was an uncontroversial idea until the Culinary Union endorsed Barack Obama and the Nevada State Education Association, whose top officials support Clinton, sued to shut down the caucus sites.
The Clinton camp played dumb until yesterday, when President Clinton came out in favor of the lawsuit.
Clinton's comments drew a heated response from D. Taylor, the head of Nevada's Culinary Union, on MSNBC's Hardball. "He is in support of disenfranchising thousands upon thousands of workers, not even just our members," Taylor said of Clinton. "The teachers union is just being used here. We understand that This is the Clinton campaign. They tried to disenfranchise students in Iowa. Now they're trying to disenfranchise people here in Nevada, who are union members and people of color and women."
Rank-and-file members of Nevada's teachers union also come out against the lawsuit filed by their leadership. "We never thought our union and Senator Clinton would put politics ahead of what's right for our students, but that's exactly what they're doing," the letter stated. "As teachers, and proud Democrats, we hope they will drop this undemocratic lawsuit and help all Nevadans caucus, no matter which candidate they support."
The lawsuit's opponents make a persuasive point. Creating obstacles to voting is what the GOP does to Democrats, not what Democrats should be doing to other Democrats.

read the lawsuit:
http://graphics.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/20080112_nevada_lawsuit.pdf

[Birthmark]

40. Superdelegates

This looks reasonably accurate:
"'Superdelegate' is an informal term for some of the delegates to the Democratic National Convention, the quadrennial convention of the United States Democratic Party.

Unlike most convention delegates, the superdelegates are not selected based on the party primaries and caucuses in each U.S. state. Instead, the superdelegates are seated automatically, based solely on their status as current or former elected officeholders and party officials. They are free to support any candidate for the nomination."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdelegate

[stillcool]

41. Exactly...

how many Super-Delegates does Florida have? 22?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/superdeleg.pdf


http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html
Friday, February 22, 2008
Superdelegate Endorsement List

Here's a list of superdelegates to the 2008 Democratic Convention that have officially announced who they plan to nominate.

We have also created a list of superdelegates that have not committed to a candidate.

There are 794 (not including Michigan and Florida) total Democratic superdelegates that the nominees are trying to be endorsed by. This consists of 719 regular superdelegates and 76 unpledged add-ons. We will continue to add the unpledged add-ons as soon as they are named by each state. (Note: Democrats Abroad superdelegates get 1/2 vote each, so there are actually 798 superdelegates casting 794 votes).

From the Democratic Party Delegate Selection Rules:

UNPLEDGED AND PLEDGED PARTY LEADERS AND ELECTED OFFICIAL DELEGATES

1. The procedure to be used for certifying unpledged party leader and elected official delegates is as follows:
Not later than March 1, 2008, the Secretary of the Democratic National Committee shall officially confirm to each State Democratic Chair the names of the following unpledged delegates who legally reside in their respective state and who shall be recognized as part of their state’s delegation unless any such member has publicly expressed support for the election of, or has endorsed, a presidential candidate of another political party;
1. The individuals recognized as members of the DNC (as set forth in Article Three, Sections 2 and 3 of the Charter of the Democratic Party of the United States); and,

2. The Democratic President and the Democratic Vice President of the United States, if applicable; and,

3. All Democratic members of the United States House of Representatives and all Democratic members of the United States Senate; and,

4. The Democratic Governor, if applicable; and,

5. All former Democratic Presidents, all former Democratic Vice Presidents, all former Democratic Leaders of the U.S. Senate, all former Democratic Speakers of the U.S. House of Representatives and Democratic Minority Leaders, as applicable, and all former Chairs of the Democratic National Committee.

Super-delegates highlighted in red are from Michigan or Florida and do not count toward the nomination at this time.

The official list of superdelegates as of February 26 can be found here.

Totals for each candidate can be seen in the Delegate Tracker in the left

[SayitAintSo]

9. BO appears to have a better ground game

Seen it 1st hand.

[WVRevy]

11. So far, the answers are..

...she starts with name recognition over him, which is why she has the early lead (and we're supposed to think Florida and Michigan should count...why, again?)

...he has the better campaign (and we're supposed to think she's better equipped to beat McCain...why, again?)

,,,that trend has reversed (wow...I'm shocked...negative campaigning works! Somebody should write that down. Newsflash: tearing down your opponent doesn't make you look better, it just sticks both of you in the mud.)

[Mike03]

17. When Obama began to win states, a lot of preconceptions about whether he could or could

not win were eroded. I think maybe at that point, people who were either on the fence or preferred Obama to Clinton decided to take the leap and actually vote their true emotions.

[joeybee12]

23. Well, when you outspend somebody 2 to 1, you're gonna cut the

lead, and in BO's case, he took the lead in TX only to lose it again.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

26. For the last 6 weeks, it's been M-O-N-E-Y for TV ads

[nonconformist]

30. Rock star syndrome.

People love to jump on board when they think it's the cool thing to do. It's the bandwagon effect.

But the latest results show that it's waning. People started to question all of the media hype and flashiness, and it made them nervous. They started getting buyer's remorse. And that's the thing with the rock star bandwagon syndrome support... it's shallow and it can't be maintained.

Easy come, easy go.

[Window]

31. ..