The Convention Won't Be Brokered.

[tekisui]

If both candidates stay in until the late August Convention, we will have a Nominee on the first round of voting. With two strong candidates are on the ballot, one of them will get 2,025 on the first round of voting.

Of course, mathematically, neither will reach 2025 on Pledged Delegates alone. They each are dependent on the 796 SuperDelegates. The Superdelegates have two viable, electable, non-fringe candidates to chose from. They have nothing to gain by forcing a second vote, only contention.

I still think that the candidate with the most Pledged Delegates will be the same candidate with the most popular votes and will be the candidate that the SuperD's break for.

The math is still very much in Obama's favor. He is expected to pick up two more wins this week, after that we have a long month until PA. It will be up to Hillary, how long this goes and I think money and perception will be her deciding factors. She could stick it out until the Convention, but I don't see what she gains, other than a long shot chance at pulling SuperD's.

The Democratic Party will do fine however long the contest lasts. It will the Dems on the front page from now until one of them concedes. They will continue to motivate voters across the country, they will continue to raise obscene amounts of money, and they will continue to throw around the kitchen sink.

But, in the end one of them will get 2025 votes on the first round of voting, of drop out prior to the Convention.

[mattclearing]

1. K&R. I agree with most of this, and hope for the best. n/t

[Jawja]

2. Yes. Good analysis.

However, if it goes to the convention and Hillary keeps up her "scorched Earth" campaign against Obama to win at all costs, it won't matter who the nominee is. We will have President McCain.

All she can do now is help McCain defeat Obama. If she pulls the nomination out, a divided Democratic Party and an energized Rethug Party insures a victory for John W. McCain.

[tekisui]

4. I think it is up to her when she wants to take her loss.

She can exit gracefully soon, or bruise the Party later.

With her wins last night, she will only gain about 20 delegates on Obama. Obama's lead will go from 153 to 133. He is still picking up 2 SuperD's a day. He has 2 to 3 times the money she has and is favored to win two more states this week.

He also has a bloc of SuperD's 50+ strong that will go to him and eclipse her wins last night.

[Jawja]

6. Thanks.

Those supers need to speak up now. Hillary will NOT exit gracefully soon. She has shown over the last couple of weeks what she intends to do. And I expect that includes making an issue out of Michigan and Florida before it is over with.

[annabanana]

3. We must prepare for the media to do everything in it's collective power

to bulk this fight up, inject it with steroids, arm it, get it's yappers to scream & shout just to see if they can cause fistfights in public places..

They want this fight to be the GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH right up to and including the Convention. Then they will spend weeks shaking their heads, and tsk tsking about the pathetic infighting that has weakened the Democratic Party.. left it exhausted and unfit to compete in November.. (much less able to "fight the terrorists")


I am not looking forward to this.. (and I like BOTH Hillary & Barak)

[tekisui]

5. Yep.

I liked them both, I am strongly for Obama, now. Would vote for Hillary if she pulled it off. But, I don't see how she can.

The media wants the ratings of a long fight.

I think last night was Hillary chance to leave on a high note. Go out on top. She had a significant win, but too little too late.

[vi5]

7. She will not bow out......at all....at any point...

I'm predicting this now that she will pull out absolutely every trick in the book to declare herself the winner. Doesn't matter if it destroys the party. Doesn't matter if it helps the republicans. None of it matters. She wants to win and will do so at all costs and with everything at her disposal no matter how shady or manipulative.

[tekisui]

8. I hope you are not right.

But, I have no way of knowing how far she will go, it should be clear to her now that she cannot win.

[vi5]

12. I hope I'm not right as well...

I want to be very wrong.

But she's proven this whole campaign that this is about her and what she's entitled to and I have no reason to believe anything will change now.

Based off of her margins last night she can't win with regard to pledged delegates. So the only way for her to win is either through seating delegats from MI and FL who everyone agreed in advance would not be seated, or having superdelegates vote contrary to pledged delegates.

Either move disgusts me, but I'd be more than happy to be proven wrong and to admit that I was wrong about her if she doesn't go down this road.

[LWolf]

9. Well, there goes my last hope for a candidate I can support.

If you don't mind, I'll just hold on to the slim chance for a brokered convention a little longer.

[tekisui]

10. Sure, but I don't see it happening.

[LWolf]

13. I don't see it happening, either,

but that small thread of hope sure postpones the decisions I'll have to make about the GE after the convention.

[tekisui]

11. She should leave on a high note.