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Analysis: Why Hillary Won - CBS News

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sueragingroz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:43 AM
Original message
Analysis: Why Hillary Won - CBS News
Edited on Wed Mar-05-08 06:43 AM by sueragingroz
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/03/05/politics/main3907555.shtml

An excerpt:

(CBS) CBS News Political Consultant Monika L. McDermott analyzes Sen. Hillary Clinton's victories on Tuesday.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Senator Hillary Clinton pulled out victories in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island tonight showing the same strengths she has throughout the electoral season among the Democratic Party's base voters. She stopped an 11-state winning streak by her opponent Senator Barack Obama by trumping his inspirational advantage with her message of policy.

Inspiration Versus Details

Clinton's recent emphasis on portraying Obama as an inspired speaker of little substance, compared to her depiction of herself as a serious policy wonk, appears to have paid off tonight. While voters saw Obama as the more inspiring of the two, he gained little, if any, electoral advantage from it.

Ohio voters chose Obama as the candidate more likely to inspire them about the future of the country - 32 percent said only Obama inspired them and 26 percent said only Clinton did. Another third of voters said both provided them with inspiration. In sum, 64 percent of voters rated Obama as inspirational and 58 percent rated Clinton as such.

Obama's inspirational advantage, however, did not translate into a proportionate vote advantage. While Obama won 64 percent of those voters rating him as inspirational, Clinton won 80 percent of those who thought she was inspirational.

Texas' Democratic primary voters showed the same attitudes and behavior - 64 percent rated Obama as inspirational and 59 percent rated Clinton so. Among the former group Clinton won 34 percent of the vote, and among the latter she received a disproportionate 76 percent.

In contrast, Clinton's successful promotion of herself as having a clear and detailed plan to solve the country's problems did translate into an electoral advantage. In Ohio, 28 percent said that Clinton was the only one of the two candidates offering such a plan, while 15 percent said Obama was the only one, and another 40 percent said both had offered clear problem-solving plans.

Overall in Ohio, 68 percent felt Clinton had offered clear plans and 55 percent felt Obama had. Similarly, in Texas 66 percent said Clinton offered a clear plan and 53 percent said Obama had. In both states, each candidate won roughly two-thirds of those rating them as having problem-solving plans, providing Clinton a mathematical edge overall.

<SNIP>

Looking Forward

Clinton's victories mean a continued battle for the Democratic presidential nomination. But while some argue that an extended the race only stands to harm the eventual candidate and tear the party apart, the exit polls say otherwise. Voters still see both candidates as acceptable party nominees, despite the long campaign to date.

On Super Tuesday, February 5th, 72 percent of Democratic voters across the country said they would be satisfied with Clinton as the Democratic presidential nominee, and 70 percent said the same about Obama. In Ohio and Texas four weeks and a lot of campaigning later, the numbers are virtually unchanged. Seventy-one percent of Ohio voters and 70 percent of Texas voters said they would be satisfied with a Clinton nomination. Sixty-nine percent of Ohioans and 66 percent of Texans said the same of Obama.

Additionally, there has been little change in perceptions of the negativity of the campaigns. In the Super Tuesday states, 50 percent of voters felt that Clinton had attacked Obama unfairly, and 38 percent felt Obama had attacked Clinton unfairly. Four weeks later, the numbers are 54 percent and 37 percent respectively in Ohio, and 52 percent and 35 percent in Texas.



theres more at the link...


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Eagle_Eye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:51 AM
Response to Original message
1. Fashion verses Functionality
Obama looks good, inspires the crowd, makes a good stump speech, but has no substance to back up his appearance.

Hillary on the other hand has experience in world affairs, dealing with large problems, and can accept victories in life along with the defeats.

Obama reminds me of Billy Crystal on 'Saturday Night Live' in the "You Look Marvelous!" routine.
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durrrty libby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:59 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Or more simply Fluff vs Stuff
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BearSquirrel2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 07:04 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Cocktail parties ...
Cocktail parties are not experience in world affairs.

I tell you what, Dick Cheney has more experience then Clinton, Obama and McCain combined at the highest levels. You don't want HIM as president ... do you?

Obama also brings a "lifetime" of experience. It's just a different life and a different group of associates. I trust his crowd more!!! I'm sick of the DLC. I KNOW he thinks better on his feet by watching him.

This whole "more experience" thing is lame. Doden and Biden BOTH had more legislative experience than Clinton, they were passed over. We all knew full well that Gore had more experience than Bush, he was passed over. It's only relevant when you're hitting the target!!!



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Amanita Donating Member (73 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 07:08 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. Packaging vs content, style vs substance, rhetoric vs platform...
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global1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 07:15 AM
Response to Reply #1
8. Please Name Me One Large Problem Hillary Dealt With And Also.....
the only world affair Hillary has had experience on is Bill and Monica.

Why Hillary won yesterday is because after the 11 state run of Obama - the media did everything it could to help her out. The media wants this race to extend. It helps them two ways: 1. it's a ratings winner that the Dems are battling this out and 2. the corporate media is interested in helping out the Repugs and keep the status quo after Nov 08. This is good for McCain and last night the biggest winner was George W.Bush himself.

Also - we found out again that negative or suspiciously slanted campaigning works. The Farrahkan endorsement; Pic of Obama in native dress; Canadian/Nafta insinuations; religious affiliation question to Hillary about Obama's religious affiliation; 3am phone commercial

I have to say I was equally disappointed with the Obama campaign since their run of the states. Why didn't they try to get Obama to mug the camera more. We didn't see him doing appearances on shows like Hillary did on SNL. What happened to Oprah and the Kennedy's? Why no real important endorsements over the last couple of weeks? They really didn't try to keep his momentum going. It seemed to fizzle or really slow down.

Russert last night read some campaign info from the Obama campaign - that predicted well before the way last evening went. They predicted it almost exactly down to the percentage numbers of the wins in each states. It was like self fulfilled prophecy and they just accepted the results without trying to change them.

So this morning we hear - Hillary the Comeback Kid II. Don't count out the Clintons. It's their legacy. And all those pundits that before yesterday were riding Obama's bus have now switched to Hillary's bus and congratulating themselves that they predicted this all along.

This morning I'm saddened for Obama's daughters - who now have to put off getting a puppy for another couple of months.

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Eagle_Eye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 07:31 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. Universal Health Care
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Tesha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 07:36 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. But her plan was a poor one and she completely failed at instituting it.
(The arrow poster seems appropriate here.)

Tesha
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global1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 07:38 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. Oh - We Have Universal Health Care - That's News To Me.......
when Bill tossed her that banana - she failed miserably. And really the only candidate that was running for the Dem nomination that supported a real Universal Health Care Plan was Kucinich.

So keep on deluding yourself about Hillary.

What I'm really surprised about is that American's talk that they want change and when they have an opportunity to vote for change they back down.
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Iceburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 07:50 AM
Response to Reply #1
14. Bottom Line: Hillary has a plan, Obama has a speech "Yes we Can"
Bush had no plans...
No homeland security plans --"who could have imagined ..."
No plan for Afghanistan
No plan for Iraq
No plan for Katrina
No plan for a deteriorating economy
No plans ...


Hillary won because she has a blue print ... a well-mapped out plan...
for universal Healthcare
for Iraq
for Afghanistan
for restoring American's relationship with the rest of the world
for the economy
for science and education
for providing equal rights to the GLBTQ community

and that gives people REAL hope.

Obama is a good man, but thus far in his career he has been ineffectual. Obama couldn't even get a stem cell research legislation passed during his 2 terms as state senator, what makes you think he can tackle anything larger?
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carlotta Donating Member (256 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 07:06 AM
Response to Original message
4. The most encouraging thing in this report
is that "On Super Tuesday, February 5th, 72 percent of Democratic voters across the country said they would be satisfied with Clinton as the Democratic presidential nominee, and 70 percent said the same about Obama."

So while those of us here moan and groan that this contest is tearing the party apart, the majority of Democrats still would happily support either candidate.

That's very good news.
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Perry Logan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 07:10 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. Good point. Quite a relief, after all of the contentiousness.
Edited on Wed Mar-05-08 07:11 AM by Perry Logan
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Eagle_Eye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 07:30 AM
Response to Reply #4
10. 72% + 70% = 140% With numbers like that, we can't lose!
Sounds a little Diebold to me.
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Vinca Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 07:12 AM
Response to Original message
7. Well . . . I have to disagree.
Hillary proved one thing: negative campaigning works. I hope Obama begins his next stump speech, "We've tried to run a clean campaign . . ." I'd be giving her props if she hadn't won it the way she did.
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Berry Cool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 07:20 AM
Response to Original message
9. Yet more 20/20 hindsight bullshit from the media.
And they never agreed with the Hillary fans that Obama actually HAS no substance, only said that she's been able to successfully present the impression that he has none. Which I disagree with, because I think only about half her support in Ohio came from her actual supporters. The other half came from Republican fans of right-wing hate radio.
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VolcanoJen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 07:53 AM
Response to Reply #9
15. Couldn't agree with you more, Berry.
:thumbsup:
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moondust Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:14 AM
Response to Original message
16. CBS is pulling for McCain.
And that explains about everything that comes out the bowels of CBS nowadays. Ask Dan Rather.
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