PPP Texas: Clinton 50 - Obama 44 - Clinton up 6

[Lucinda]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/PPP_Texas_Release_030308.pdf

March 1st-2nd
MOE 3.6

[Alhena]

1. A 67-30 split among Hispanics probably won't be enough for Hillary ...

to avoid a 2-2 delegate split in the 4-delegate districts in the Rio Grande Valley, when you consider the GOTV efforts the Obama campaign will no doubt employ among the minority of non-hispanics in those districts. All he has to do is get Hillary to less than 62.5% and if he does, Hillary wins no delegates in that district.

It looks like Hillary will have a good night tomorrow night, but I suspect that, when the smoke clears the bottom line will still be a huge 135 delegate or so lead by Obama.

[Lucinda]

2. The delegate weighting certainly does make it difficult for her in TX

Can't wait to see how it all works out. :)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. That's A Bit Of An Outlier But I Hope It's Right

~

[Lucinda]

4. Yes we can, hope.

:) I think she's going to have a good day.

[JackORoses]

5. You do know that anything below 60% in OH and TX will be a bad day, don't you?

Or do delegates not come into play in this consideration?

[Lucinda]

6. Nope. Any win is a good win. It changes the narrative.

[JackORoses]

13. How does the narrative change the numbers? Delegates are what is tallied in the end, not narrative.

[zabet]

20. I think she's gonna have a good day too.

:)

[book_worm]

7. Right now it shows independents breaking Obama 53-32

My guess is that Obama will do much better than that with indies and it will be over 60%. Also shows Obama with 78% of Black vote. My guess is he will be closer to 90%. It will be tight and it could go either way, I suppose, but I think Obama may win.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. It Would Be Interesting To Change The African American Vote To 90%-10% And See What Happens,,,

The lead is probably only cut a point or two...

[MadBadger]

11. I have Clinton 49, Obama 47 when fixing those numbers.

[jenmito]

8. It seems they're a LITTLE biased by this comment:

"The difference maker in Texas is the Hispanic vote. Clinton is dominating that
demographic (67-30), nearly as much as Obama is winning the African American vote
(78-13)."

ibid

Really? So 37 points is "nearly as much" as 65 points? :eyes:

[Lucinda]

14. That IS some very creative math, isn't it?

:)

[Medusa]

10. But she's got to win Texas and Ohio by at least 70% majority

or else she won't pick up any net delegates, or at the very most, 5 or under. She's sunk. Oh she'll keep going but it'll be like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

[Abacus]

12. She's made some gains in the Rasmussen markets today also

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/latest_results_from_rasmussen_markets

[rodeodance]

15. Clinton vows to press on****

tack on here as it seems to fit.


http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/03/03/america/campaign.php

Clinton vows to press on
By Brian Knowlton and John M. Broder
Monday, March 3, 2008

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, campaigning all-out Monday in Ohio and Texas, said that she would press on after key primaries Tuesday, even as her campaign played down earlier talk that she might drop out if she failed to win either of the two crucial presidential primaries.

The New York senator told reporters in Toledo, Ohio, that the measure of success for her on Tuesday - Vermont and Rhode Island are also holding primaries - would be simply "winning." She said she would press on into Pennsylvania, which votes April 22, and elsewhere after the primaries Tuesday, saying, "I'm just getting warmed up."
.............

But her advisers sought to shift the pressure for big results onto Obama, and seemed to retreat from suggestions - including from the candidate's husband, former President Bill Clinton - that Hillary Clinton needed to win at least the big states Tuesday to remain viable.

"With all his momentum, favorable press coverage and money, anything short of a decisive victory in the four states voting this week will be a major disappointment for Senator Obama and his campaign," Phil Singer, a Clinton spokesman, said in an e-mail. "If he can't win under those circumstances, one has to wonder why."

Clinton aides say that Obama has had two earlier opportunities to essentially bury Clinton - in New Hampshire, following his surprise victory in Iowa, and on "Super Tuesday," following his big victory in South Carolina. Yet, both times she bounced back and survived.


.............

Many of the party's superdelegates, mostly senior Democratic officials potentially crucial to the nomination, are impatient to coalesce around a winning candidate...........

The latest polls show Texas as a statistical dead heat, while Clinton retains a small lead in Ohio. The New York senator would probably need a robust turnout among Hispanics in Texas and of white women in Ohio to prevail.

Clinton hardly acted like a defeated woman Monday, however. After arriving in Toledo past midnight, she arose well before dawn to shake hands at an auto plant gate at 5:35 a.m.

The reactions from the workers ranged from thrilled to startled.

"Hillary, all right!" exclaimed one. "Hillary Clinton, you're a very strong woman," said another.

She planned to work nonstop throughout the day, with rallies in Toledo and in Beaumont, Texas, then two town-hall style meetings in Austin, Texas.

But to overcome Obama's lead in the all-important delegates to the national nominating convention, Clinton will need more than close victories. Under rules used by the Ohio Democratic Party to allocate the 141 delegates at stake, a resounding victory is needed to win a preponderance of delegates.

On the other hand, if Clinton carries both Ohio and Texas, Obama could find himself in for a protracted, wrenching battle.

"There are 16 remaining contests after Tuesday," said Clinton's chief strategist, Mark Penn. "There's nothing wrong with letting the people in the remaining jurisdictions have their say."

Some analysts speculate that Clinton's sympathetic supporters might still vote in large numbers to save her candidacy.

"She has a shot" at carrying both Texas and Ohio, James Carville, her husband's former strategist, said Sunday.

[yellowcanine]

16. Stuff and Nonsense. Wait for the vote. Six points either way means squat. It is all turnout and

late deciders now. And that favors Obama, imo. He has the superior ground game, his supporters are more energized, he has the lead in delegates, and he has the money to keep putting his message out. Game, set, match.

[rodeodance]

17. the sun is shining today

[avrdream]

18. PPP has been pretty close to correct in other primaries, if I recall correctly.

The Texas two-step thingy may make all the polls look off, though. Who the heck wants to go out and vote TWICE in one day. I personally think that favors the younger Obama crowd but I may be wrong.

[MindMatter]

19. Obam's message of hope is getting through to the Clinton supporters.

They are definitely showing some prodigious hope.