Ohio Preview: Polling and demographic graphs

[usregimechange]

(Ohio, 161 delegates, March 4th)

Polls show the race in Ohio tightening:


And Clinton's lead shrinking:


Racial demographic factors

The percentage of Blacks in Ohio mirrors the national average (Ohio 12.0%, national average 12.8%). Urban Ohio may go strong for Obama in large part because of African Americans:


According to the Census Bureau the Latino population in Ohio is very small. The 2006 census indicates that Latinos comprise 2.3% of the population of Ohio, which is more than 6 times less the national average of 14.8%. Ohio's Latino Population is almost non-existent:


My past demographic analysis of Ohio:
Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, percent, 2006: 2.3% Much less than national average (++Obama)
Black persons, percent, 2006: 12.0% Close to national average (n/a)
Persons 65 years old and over, percent, 2006: 13.3% Slightly more than national average (+Clinton)
Bachelor's degree or higher, pct of persons age 25+, 2000: 21.1% Less than nationl average (+Clinton)
(Overall advantage: Neutral)

However, the assumptions that these are based on have changed given Obama's pilfering from Clinton's base support. For example, Obama's support among working class democrats has improved in recent elections. In Wisconsin, for example, he won among voters with no college degree 56% - 43%.

Maps of interest

Ohio population map:


2004 Presidential results by county:


2006 Brown Senate win:





http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/Seth77

[JimGinPA]

1. Very Nice Job

:kick:



&Rec

[Arugula Latte]

2. Good info.

Thanks. :hi:

[usregimechange]

3. Welcome

[KittyWampus]

4. you put a lot of effort into this, thanks

[usregimechange]

5. Your welcome, glad I did because now I know more about what to watch on Tues

[NEOhiodemocrat]

6. Thank You

This is very interesting. I found where I am, true blue! It would be really nice to see the maps after the general election. (hint-hint) Sure was a difference from 2004 to 2006.

[Cirque du So-What]

7. Thanks for this info

It gives me a better understanding of my newly-adopted state of residence.

[NJSecularist]

8. Cleveland is in Cuyahoga County

and theortically he should dominate there but let's not forget about the Greater Cleveland area, which favors Hillary. A sign of good things for Obama would be winning by a huge margin in Cuyahoga. IMO, it's the only way he wins the state. If he doesn't win Cuyahoga by a large margin, he has no chance.

[usregimechange]

9. Zogby saying that he is doing well in Franklin co too but you are right, he will need to win by at l

least 25% in Cuyahoga

[usregimechange]

10. Here is the quote from Zogby:

Clinton "trailed Obama badly in northeast Ohio and in burgeoning central Ohio, where the capital city of Columbus is home to many state government workers."

[NJSecularist]

17. It looks like Obama is intent on getting his margins up in Cuyahoga

Seeing as he has a scheduled town hall meeting for Westerville tommorow, a heavily white city. Him doing well here could help him win Cuyahoga by a large margin.

[usregimechange]

20. Westerville is near Columbus, working to raise franklin co too

[theboss]

25. I find it interesting that his path to victory is the same path a Democrat must take in Ohio

He needs to dominate in Cleveland, do well in Columbus and hope for good things in the rust belt along the turnpike. And he has to hope for weaker turnout in Cincinatti.

[OzarkDem]

27. Obama not doing well in Dem areas

his strength is in GOP areas, no surprise there. Those are the same folks who will vote for McCain in November.

[TexasObserver]

11. the second chart shows clearly that Fox is the outLIEr, and without it, the trend line is clear

Also, they're still underpolling young latinos and latinas in Texas, who are trending to Obama.

[usregimechange]

12. Your right, I thought of not including the Fox poll for that reason

[TexasObserver]

13. Fox Noise always spins their polls the direction they want to influence.

they want to run against Hillary, pure and simple

[mod mom]

14. Thank you would you mind re-posting this info on Liam Laddies Election Reform OH thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x498044

Thanks for the excellent info, usregimechange!

[Blue State Bandit]

15. Good stuff!

[Kukesa]

16. A question from a Daytonian:

why the state-wide results for Sherrod Brown in 2006? Just curious.

Nice work. Thanks.

[usregimechange]

18. Not sure but he did very well

[KLee]

19. I Just love you guys...

Thank you for taking the time and dedication for all this hard work. You are to be commended!

[usregimechange]

21. Your welcome, its actually fun

[usregimechange]

22. kicking for others to see

[usregimechange]

23. New OH newspaper polls would seem to show a slide in the polls for Obama

Although they still show it being very close.

[grantcart]

24. I like our chances in Cleveland

wicked good

really fantastic

[OzarkDem]

26. Latest poll is not reliable

others taken the same time show much different results.

Survey USA has Clinton ahead 50% to 44% with a much smaller margin of error at + or - 3.6%

She will win in Ohio.

[goclark]

28. Isn't the weather suppose to be bad in Northern Ohio on Tues.?

I thought I heard that around Cleveland and below it would be icy?

Please tell me No! :scared: