Flashback: 2004 Democratic Presidential Race - 4 Years Ago

[Tom Rinaldo]

At this point in time, in the 2004 contest for the Democratic nomination for President, four Democratic Candidates remained in the race; John Kerry, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, and Al Sharpton. With March 2 2004 Super Tuesday approaching, John Kerry had already won 18 out of the 21 contests already held, having lost only in the District of Columbia, South Carolina, and Oklahoma. Senator Kerry was on a bit of a roll at this point, having won the previous 11 contests. All 11 of those victories were by margins of 15% or above, with the sole exception of Wisconsin, where Kerry won by a 6% margin. Over half of Kerry's victories during this run (6) were by margins of over 20%.

On February 28th 2004, none of John Kerry's remaining Democratic opponents had won more than a single primary or caucus in the entire 2004 race, compared to Kerry's 18 total victories by that date. Still, no Democratic Candidate was being pressured to leave the race by forces external to his own campaign, and Senator John Edwards in particular continued to maintain hope of winning the Democratic nomination for President. The media continued to regard Senator Edwards as a serious contender to win the Democratic nomination.

Senator Edwards finally withdrew from the 2004 race for President after the results of March 2 2004, which showed him losing to John Kerry in all ten of the contests held that day. John Kerry won nine of those, and Howard Dean (who had already left the race by that date) won his home state of Vermont.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Democratic_Party_presidential_nomination,_2004

[Tom Rinaldo]

1. An indication that Edwards was serious until the end:

From Wikipedia:

"Edwards maintained a positive campaign and largely avoided attacking Kerry until a February 29, 2004, debate in NYC, where he attempted to put Kerry on the defensive by characterizing the front-runner as a "Washington insider" and by mocking Kerry's plan to form a committee to examine trade agreements."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Democratic_Party_presidential_nomination,_2004

[angie_love]

3. I can't decide if all this fighting helps or hurts Obama

I see your point but what worries me is that Hillary is constantly comparing Obama to George Bush. That does nothing but hurt him. McCain wouldn't even use the Bush reference against Obama b/c it wouldn't help him. So Hillary implying that Obama is not ready to be president/comparisons to bush/mocking him doesn't IMO make him a stronger candidate to defeat McCain.

Where it does help is in the issues, when Hillary uses GOP talking pts now, it will prepare Obama in the GE and make him tougher. I think their campaign did Obama a favor by leaking that photo of him in african garb *if they leaked it* b/c its best to get it out now then wait till November. Perhaps all the swiftboating thats happening to him now only helps him b/c in a few months it will be old news. If Obama can hold up/respond to attacks and counterpunch swiftly, he'll probably do well.

The problem with Kerry is that he got SUCH positive press early on and went largely unchallenged that when Bushs cronies hammered away at him, it was *new* news and that hurt him in the end.

[Tom Rinaldo]

5. Obama is helped by Hillary in this regard

McCain will run against Obama as the "experienced" candidate. That is his "string suit". In fact McCain can distance himself gently from Bush on Iraq by accurately stating that he always knew enough to know that the U.S. didn't send over enough troops in the first place, because of his experience. Obama, if he becomes our nominee, is much more practiced now at dueling with a candidate who has claims on greater experience than he does. It is excellent training for Obama should he be the one to face McCain.

[angie_love]

9. True, he seems to learn quickly on the fly

I am struck by how crappy he was in earlier debates compared to how much better hes gotten now. Hopefully it'll work out in the end. Obama has alot of very tough challenges ahead, but I think he'll be a better candidate than John Kerry was. I was always pissed when John Kerry didn't immediately respond to the swiftboating attacks. In the end it was too late. But John Kerry already stated that it was his big regret that he didn't respond immediately and that was the advice he would give to Obama.

[johnnydrama]

10. and it'll be up to Obama

To blow the talking point that McCain always was against the way the war was run out of the water.

McCain has lied repeatedly about those facts, and I don't think he'll be able to get away with them.

[Amonester]

7. And JK (or his campaign staff) ignored the swiftboaters attacks for...

wwwwwwwwaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyy toooooooo llllllllloooooooonnnnnnnnnnnggggggg...

so in the end, he lost (even if he won...). :(

[sanjiadem]

2. The whole rearranging of the primary calendar f'd things up

and, add to that the uniqueness of the candidates left standing, with all their money, celebs, and the M$M's preferential treatment, I'm not surprise the best candidates left early or never jumped in to begin with.

The whole process is flawed and/or rigged and, thus, an exercise in futility for most of us.

[BeyondGeography]

4. Thanks for the reminder...makes you realize how absurd this year's calendar was

with 22 states (originally supposed to be 24) going on Feb. 5, and how impossible it was for all but two candidates to finance and organize themselves to be competitive after the first four races. This needs to be completely and permanently revamped.

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. I completely agree. n/t

[Tom Rinaldo]

8. Looking back, I am struck that

no one was clammering for John Edwards to leave the race at this point in 2004. In fact he was being taken quite seriously as a candidate, even after having lost 11 straight races AND only having won a single primary before that. The Republicans certainly already had their candidate.

John Edwards was never the insider establishment candidate. He wasn't receiving special treatment because of that. Edwards was a one term U.S. Senator with no prior experience in politics before that one run for the Senate.

[Tom Rinaldo]

11. Kick n/t

[Tom Rinaldo]

12. So Edwards lost 11 in a row & was still taken seriously

by the media in the 2004 race 4 years ago. even though he had only won one race. Even though he was only a one term Senator with no big insider connections. Edwards was in other words, "no Clinton". This busts the new media myth that the media is leaning over backwards to continue to consider her a contender with the race nearly tied. This busts the claim that only a Clinton would be treated that "generously".