Here is a big reason why..
Congressional hopefuls ride the Obama wave
By: Josh Kraushaar
Feb 27, 2008 05:55 AM EST
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8711_Page2.html Democrats in conservative-minded congressional districts have a familiar quadrennial drill: Run as far away from the party’s presidential nominee as possible.
This year, though, there is reason to believe that practice might change. After witnessing the enthusiasm generated by Barack Obama’s historic candidacy, Democrats in some of the unlikeliest places are looking forward to running on a ticket with his name on the top line.
From upscale, Republican-leaning Northern suburbs to rural, culturally conservative Southern districts, Obama’s primary election performances are giving hope to Democratic pols that, for once, the party nominee might be an asset if Obama defeats Hillary Rodham Clinton in their nomination battle.
Nowhere is this clearer than in central and south Georgia’s heavily Republican 8th Congressional District, where Democrat Jim Marshall is one of his party’s most endangered incumbents. After winning reelection by a razor-thin, 1,752-vote margin in 2006, Marshall faces one of the GOP’s most highly touted recruits in Rick Goddard, a retired Air Force major general.
Against that competitive backdrop, Marshall is looking for any advantage he can get. And if Georgia’s Super Tuesday primary is any indication, Obama’s candidacy may provide one.
His presence on the Feb. 5 ballot spiked African-American turnout: Nearly 43 percent more voters turned out in heavily African-American Bibb County this year than in the 2004 Democratic presidential primary.
Texas Hispanics still up for grabs
Boehner gives GOP kick
Farm bill future risky for traders
Obama carried 75 percent of the primary vote in that key county, winning nearly as many total votes as Marshall did in the 2006 general election.
“I think that Barack Obama as the nominee will increase African-American turnout in Georgia throughout the entire state,” said Marshall spokesman Doug Moore. “If he could draw an extra 10 percent of African-Americans to the polls, that could be worth a point, which could be a big deal in a close election.”
The prospect of a large African-American turnout is also helping with Democratic candidate recruitment in the South.
After spending months mulling over a campaign, Bobby Bright, the popular nonpartisan mayor of Montgomery, Ala., announced Tuesday that he is running as a Democrat for the seat vacated by Rep. Terry Everett (R-Ala.).
Bright had also been recruited by Republican campaign officials, to no avail.
Obama was one of the reasons behind his decision to run. The district, centered in Montgomery, has a 29 percent black population and overwhelmingly voted for Obama in Alabama’s presidential primary.
Those results proved encouraging to Bright, who needs high turnout from African-American voters to prevail in the heavily Republican district.
Bright’s campaign recently released a polling memo suggesting that a huge show of support from the African-American community could “add 3 to 5 points” to his margins against leading Republican opponents.
The Obama effect does not appear to be strictly an African-American phenomenon. It also appears to be affecting largely white, affluent, suburban congressional battlegrounds, many of which have turned out to be Obama strongholds.
In Northern Virginia, where Republicans are defending the seat of retiring Rep. Tom Davis, Obama won 60 percent of the Democratic primary vote in that congressional district — winning more votes than were cast in the entire Republican primary.
Obama also carried the tony New York City suburbs in Connecticut, a performance that fueled his upset statewide victory over Clinton. In another sign that can’t be comforting to perennially endangered local GOP Congressman Christopher Shays, Obama raised more than $663,000 in Greenwich — the hometown of Shays’ opponent Jim Himes. By comparison, that’s roughly twice John McCain’s haul from the well-heeled CEOs, investment bankers and lawyers who inhabit Greenwich.
Obama’s ability to boost Democratic turnout in his home state of Illinois is already evident — roughly 800,000 more Democratic votes were cast in the 2008 presidential primary than in 2004. Illinois is one of the key House battlegrounds in 2008, with both parties closely eyeing five of the state’s 19 seats as possible pickup opportunities.
There, the primary returns are already generating considerable Democratic enthusiasm. More Democrats than Republicans cast primary ballots in Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean’s suburban Chicago district — unprecedented in a district that until recently was one of the state’s most conservative-oriented.
And Democrats are hoping they can wrestle away the seat of former House Speaker Dennis Hastert in a March 8 special election. Obama took time out of his presidential campaign to cut an advertisement for the party’s nominee, scientist Bill Foster, arguing he is the best-equipped candidate to deliver change in Washington. Not so long ago, the idea of publicizing an endorsement from a black Chicago politician in Hastert’s exurban-and-suburban-based district would have been unthinkable.
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
