Holy crap....CNN Texas Poll Clinton 50% Obama 48%

[Perky]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/18/poll.texas/index.html

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll suggests the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination between Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois is a statistical dead heat in Texas, which holds primaries March 4.

In the survey, out Monday, 50 percent of likely Democratic primary voters support Clinton as their choice for the party's nominee, with 48 percent backing Obama.

But taking into account the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 4½ percentage points for Democratic respondents, the race is a virtual tie.

Two recent polls by other organizations also show the race statistically even. Map: National and state polling

"One reason the race appears to be tight is that Texas Democrats are having a hard time choosing between two attractive options," says CNN polling director Keating Holland.

"Likely Democratic primary voters would be equally happy if either candidate won the nomination, and they don't see a lot of difference between them on several top issues.

"Roughly a quarter of likely voters say they could change their minds in the next two weeks -- and not surprisingly, those people are splitting roughly equally between Clinton and Obama."

Many political strategists and analysts consider Texas and Ohio -- which also holds a March 4 primary -- must-win states for Clinton. Obama has won the past eight contests and is now ahead in the overall battle for delegates, 193 of which are at stake in Texas.

[Johnny__Motown]

1. and she needs to win by 55-45 or better for the delegate count to make a dent in his lead

[Perky]

4. It is more like 60% because of the way the delegates are proportioned

If it is a 50 50 draw he will probably gain some small number of delegate more.

[Johnny__Motown]

8. I was being nice, you are right 55-45 won't do it, but I did say "or better"

[DadOf2LittleAngels]

6. I had seen 65-35 but that may not count

I super delegate overlords..

[

[Arkana]

2. That's great!

He doesn't have to win--he just needs to stay close--close enough to split the delegate count.

Same with Ohio. A win, however, would be a major coup.

Plus, we forget--he hasn't even started campaigning in earnest down there.

[Occam Bandage]

3. Another firewall going up in smoke.

[FrenchieCat]

39. Poof!

:nuke:

[thevoiceofreason]

5. And in the senate districts that count, Big O has her whipped.

[Perky]

16. Yeah I would love to see a break out like that as well.

But truth of it: is all Senate Districts Matter

[Scurrilous]

7. Holy crap indeed!

Gobama! :thumbsup:

[Perky]

9. Welll Texas does not really matter since it is a red state anyway.

;rofl:

[BringBigDogBack]

45. hahaha

[Colobo]

10. GOBAMA!!!

[catagory5]

11. rezko trial watch 1 week and counting

http://rezkowatch.blogspot.com/

[Perky]

12. That may be your only hope if Obama beates Clinton in Texas

[thevoiceofreason]

13. Hi! I'm a lame Hillary supporter and have no life -- and no issues.

Just ask KKKarl Rove. He taught me all I know.

[Moochy]

26. Here's to the healing power of truth!

:beer:

[anamandujano]

19. If he gets the nod and is forced to withdraw during the GE, do we

get another pick or does the Democrat chance to win have to go down in flames with him?

Actually, I guess we have until the convention to see how this plays out.

[angie_love]

40. clinton sex scandal 1 month and counting. dumbass.

[Charlie Czerbiak]

14. Breaking Rasmussen poll: McCain leads Obama by 16% in Florida

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/florida_2008_presidential_election

[kristopher]

38. Primary campaign in FL? McCain - yes; Obama - no

The voters there have seen very little of Obama so far. Let's see how he does in polling after he invests some time there (if he wins primary, of course).

[TexasObserver]

15. Hillary's going DOWN in Tejas, amigos. Si se puede.

[loveangelc]

17. this thing could potentially be over before we die of old age.

[XemaSab]

23. That's what McCain's hoping

:P

[hay rick]

18. open primary

My understanding is that Texas is an open primary. If I was a Republican I would see much more point in voting for what I thought was the weakest Democratic contender rather than voting for or against John McCain when that contest is already decided.

Meanwhile the media worries about superdelegates...

[texas_indy]

20. From the talk around the DFW metroplex the conservative republicans

are still voting in the republican primary to try to get hard line conservative people in their respective offices, while the moderate republicans are aiming to vote for Obama for 2 reasons:
1. they really, really, really hate HRC and they can make it personal by killing her dream right here in Texas, and
2. if necessary, they can deal with an Obama being president easier than HRC. The thought of having HRC as a president makes them become rabid.


Texas is coming home to Obama!

GOBAMA!!

[JPZenger]

27. Will some repubs vote for Hillary as the weaker candidate?

I heard some Repubs in Wisconsin saying they were going to vote for Hillary because they thought she would be easier to beat in the Nov. election. I wonder if this will happen in Texas. I didn't realize Texas had an open primary.

[Perky]

31. Cuts both ways. They would both rather face Hillary in the Fall but they also want to vanquish her

now if at all possible.

[texas_indy]

35. Maybe some will, but from my observations with friends and family down here

the hatred for HRC is so intense they want to have a personal stake in shooting her down for good. The is the only time that Texas has had a chance like this to make a difference and they are out to bag HRC. If the worst happens then they are quite willing to wait through 4 years of an Obama win to try again with Romney.

But they can't not even think of an HRC win without going rabid, and now they can personally do her in.

Of course this is from an Obama supporter prospective.

GOBAMA!!

[kristopher]

37. As much as the Republicans hate Hillary?

I agree there is going to be a large crossover vote and it is going to be going to Obama. But I don't agree with the reason you offer. I think it will be mostly because they just HATE Senator Clinton and want her out of the running.

I know I heard Limbaugh encourage it, and as weak as McCain is, there are going to be plenty of people who want to vote that are looking for any excuse not to vote for McCain.

I also don't think those crossing over at Limbaugh's suggestion will cooperate with exit polling, so we won't know the extent of the problem.

That uncertainty will be used (by the right) to undermine any claim to broad support by the Obama campaign.

Those snakes are certainly slimy.

[Alexander]

21. I agree with this poll. Texas will be a razor-thin 51-49, whoever wins.

The demographics normally favor Hillary, but the crossover vote and momentum will favor Obama.

The Clinton campaign will be all but done after Texas. She could even concede that very night if Obama ekes out a victory.

[ORDem]

22. I think it will be much more lopsided. The polls are already

moving to Obama and he hasn't even set foot in the state yet. Still two weeks to go-bama!!

:dem:

[Alexander]

24. Yes but remember polls had him up in NH, California and Massachusetts.

We must take these polls with a grain of salt.

I don't know about early voting in Texas, but I'm sure early voting in every state favors Clinton, especially since she was still seen as "inevitable" until just over a month ago.

Then there's the Bradley effect to contend with, the lack of cell phones, crossover votes and the fact that many of these polls are just plain unreliable.

He was supposed to win New Hampshire, California and Massachusetts by double-digit margins. And that didn't happen. Right now I'd say Texas is still up in the air and will likely stay that way barring some huge scandal.

[texas_indy]

29. Texas early voting starts tomorrow, you have to vote at the precinct location in person

no mail in voting...


GOBAMA!!

[Alexander]

32. Thanks for the info.

I still think my prediction will be accurate, but since you are apparently from Texas, can you clue us in as to what's going on there, or who people in your area are supporting?

[texas_indy]

36. I live in the DFW metroplex and I think we'll be going for Obama most likely,

I've seen 2X as many Obama ads on the TV in the last week as HRC.

I believe North Texas will go for Obama, especially considering the large AA population here, as well as the Houston and Austin areas. Along with having many students from the nearby Universities. (Thank God for open primaries!)

San Antonio is a toss up since there are many Universities there, as well as a huge military presence (2 major Air Bases, 1 major Army base, and numerous training facilities. Over half the population there is latino though so it depends on the turn out.

El Paso and the valley will probably go HRC, but they will get far less delegates for the same population due to Texas rule for awarding the number of delegates based on the participation in the last election.

Of course, this is from an Obama supporter.

GOBAMA!!

[JPZenger]

25. Free Obama Tickets Being Scalped for $50 Each

http://houston.craigslist.org/tix/578808612.html

Obama is appearing at the Toyota Center in Houston, which seats 19,000 people. The free tickets have all been distributed, and are now being scalped for up to $50 a ticket.

[NJSecularist]

28. Brand new Survey USA poll in Texas - Hillary: 50, Obama: 45

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a727cce1-0546-4909-95cf-02f3bc9ab73c

Somebody want to post a new thread for this? My thread allotment is up for the day....

[Perky]

30. same here :(

[Perky]

33. The Data is cvery interestingon the Survey USA

Depending on Hispanic Turnout, Clinton is Either Slightly Ahead, or Not so Slightly Ahead, in Texas Democratic Primary: In a Democratic Primary in Texas today, 02/18/08, 15 days to the vote, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 50% to 45%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KTRK-TV Houston, KTVT-TV Dallas, and KRLD-AM radio Dallas. BUT: there is "give" in these numbers that must be mentioned in the same breath. Among Hispanic voters, Clinton leads 2:1. SurveyUSA estimates that Hispanics make-up 32% of Democratic primary voters in a Primary today. If Hispanics vote in larger numbers, Clinton's lead is larger than the 5 points shown here. If Hispanics vote in smaller numbers, Obama runs stronger than these numbers show. Among white voters, Clinton leads by 12. Among black voters, Obama leads by 57. Race Gap is 69 points. Among males, Obama leads by 20. Among females, Clinton leads by 27. Gender Gap is 47 points. Among registered Democrats, Clinton up 14. Among Independents, Obama up 28. Among voters under age 50, Obama by 6. Among Voters 50+, Clinton by 17. Age Gap is 23 points. Clinton ahead in South Texas and West Texas. Obama and Clinton within the margin of sampling error in North Texas, East Texas, and Central Texas.

[NJSecularist]

34. If you standardize this data based on 2004 exit poll data

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a727cce1-0546-4909-95cf-02f3bc9ab73c

with...

White - 52%
Black - 21%
Latino - 24%

Obama is within two.

In my opinion, if he makes inroads with Latino voters ( currently 65-32 Hillary), he will win the state, if all else stays the same.

[angie_love]

41. I'll post it.

[Major Hogwash]

42. She's going to lose in Texas. And now maybe in Ohio, too.

The more they brag about how "white" their supporters are, the worse it is for the Democratic party.

Ed Rendell still hasn't apologized for his comments from last week.

[donheld]

43. What would be more humiliating for Hillary

Quitting the race Wednesday or losing every remaining primary?

[Independent-Voter]

48. I think she should ride it out.

It'd be the perfect way to put a stake through the heart of the DLC/Clinton clusterfuck.

[SKKY]

44. HRC's firewall is getting hacked right now.

[Perky]

46. The splits are pretty devestating when you overlay this against Senate Districts and proportionality

given where support is Obama could lose the taxas primary and trounce her in the dlegate count. but the real value here is that that Axelrod cnn now wend the candidate to both Texas on Ohio rather thanone or the other. THe comment I have read weas that they though Hillary could win bothe they just did not want to cede too much of the delegate lead. Seems to me thatif he cmapaigns to a tie in both that wold be sufficient.

[Perky]

47. .

[JCMach1]

49. Two points: Obama appears to be closing in TX and Clinton closing the gap in WI

You can check the campaign schedules the past few days to see the evidence of that.

My internal polling (at least as accurate as ARG and Zogby, LOL) has Clinton +5% in TX and MOE in WI...

[EmilyAnne]

50. My brothers, their girlfriends, my uncle and his partner are all going to see Obama speak tonight

in Houston! They are also putting in their early votes this morning. That's 6 tiny votes. My uncles were big time Hillary supporters until very recently.

[CorpGovActivist]

51. !