Why Obama may win Ohio and thus the nomination

[usregimechange]

Why Obama may win with a victory in Ohio

Clinton's own supporters have suggested that she "has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she's out" (NYT, February 12, 2008 citing "one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton"). Others including Democratic strategist and Clinton backer James Carville "Make no mistake. If she loses either Texas or Ohio, this thing is done" (Orlando Sentinel, Feb 13, 2008). Additionally, given that she is current down by a small but significant margin in pledge delegates the math gets very difficult if she does not carry these two "firewall" states. Ohio has a large number of delegates (161).

Why Obama may win Ohio

Let’s assume that Clinton will maintain the advantage she had prior to the Potomac primaries with some demographic groups. For this analysis let’s give her a lead among Latinos, 65yo+, and less educated democratic voters. Let’s also assume that Obama retains his advantage with African Americans and higher educated democratic voters.

Latinos

According to the Census Bureau the Latino population in Ohio is very small. The 2006 census indicates that Latinos comprise 2.3% of the population of Ohio, which is more than 6 times less the national average of 14.8%. Even if Clinton can reverse and pre-date Obama's capturing of the Latino vote (in VA for example, CNN exit polling, Obama 54% - Clinton 46%) it wouldn't amount to much difference given the small numbers of Latinos in Ohio.

African Americans

The percentage of Blacks in Ohio mirrors the national average (Ohio 12.0%, national average 12.8%). Blacks have been the most stridently Democratic voters among any demographic category I have seen and thus are presumably more likely than Latinos to be democratic primary voters. In the three most populous cities in Ohio the percentage of African Americans are as follows: Cleveland 51.0% of the population, 42.9% in Cincinnati, and 24.5% in Columbus. Watch Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton counties on election night.

The elderly

The percentage of persons over 65 years old and over in Ohio is 13.3%, only slightly more populous than the national average of 12.4%. Yet, older voters tend to vote in greater percentages than younger voters. However, using VA primary CNN exit poll data, the elderly are trending to Obama as he carried them in VA 56% - 44%. In addition, those 60 and Older accounted for only 20% in the 2004 presidential election, and age groups 30-44yo accounted for more at 30% and 45-59yo accounted for 29%. The meat of the vote in Ohio has been with middle age voters. Indeed, 80% of the 2004 vote came from age groups 18-59.

Educated voters

Ohioans are only slightly less educated than the nation at large. Those with a Bachelor's degree or higher amounted to 21.1% of the population and are 24.4% of the national population. However, using recent VA primary contest exit poll data, poorer and more educated folks are trending to Obama:



Source: CNN

Momentum

Ohio is trending to Obama following Obama's sweep of the most recent 7 state elections. Indeed, the second most recent Quinnipiac poll indicated a 26 point Clinton lead and the most recent a 21 point Clinton lead. The most recent of all polls in Ohio shows that lead has been cut to 14 points. Clearly there is movement to Obama in the State of Ohio.

Conclusion

Given the near absence of Latino voters in Ohio, the significant percentage of urban African American voters, and current trends toward Obama generally and among lower class and older voters, I predict that Ohio will either be very close or will go to Obama. If Carville, Clinton superdelegates, and others are correct this could spell the mathematical end to the Clinton campaign.

References

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/us/politics/12clinton.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/the_buzz/2008/02/carville-and-ma.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39000.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#VADEM
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/OH/P/00/epolls.0.html
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1125
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1142
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary

Disclosure

I strongly support Obama for President of the United States!



http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/Seth77

[ericgtr]

1. Excellent and well thought out post

K&R

[usregimechange]

2. Thank you!

:kick:

[TeamJordan23]

3. thanks for your research. k&r.

[Hepburn]

4. Wow, you really put a great deal of thought and work into this post.

A pleasure to K&R. I am gonna read it again...lots to read and digest here!

Thanks! :hi:

[jasmine621]

5. I agree. And if she loses she should just bow out gracefully and

let the nation get the President they will deserve...just as they got in the last two elections. So much shit is going to hit the fan in the next four years I almost don't want Hillary to have to deal with it.

[usregimechange]

7. True, which is why I said it would "spell the mathematical end" because I am sure she will try

some type of electoral shinanigins.

[defendandprotect]

47. Just saw Obama making a speech where he seemed to be suggesting

that Sen. Clinton is "down" and out ---
It certainly annoyed me and I'm not a Clinton supporter ---

Sour note ---

[kid a]

6. i just added $50 to your obama meter =)

thats my 4th $50 contribution this week...those little goals of you guys are enticing! i can help you meet it!!

Should go to $80 soon!

peace

[usregimechange]

8. Yes!!! It is so fun to do this... Thank you very much! Just 20$ to go!

[kid a]

9. can someone give him the final $20 to meet his goal???

=)

[usregimechange]

14. For the love of God!!! BTW, that was a form of ceremonial deism and was not meant to

constitute an endorsement of a religious position because this is about our government and well...

[usregimechange]

16. My new Obama meter!

http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/Seth77

[usregimechange]

24. Almost there!!! Newest Obama meter:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/Seth77

[kid a]

41. here's another $25 to put you and OBAMA over the top!

sweet!
Lets go make some calls to TX and WI

[usregimechange]

42. Thank you! I plan on making some calls tomorrow.

[NJSecularist]

10. You can't use VA exit poll data for Ohio with any accuracy

The demographics are completely different...

[usregimechange]

12. It is a trend in a different state so the answer is no but what else do we got to go on? Washington?

Source: NYT

[usregimechange]

15. Sorry, I couldn't help myself! NY would look just as bad the other way, although Obama did win a...

county there. :evilgrin:

[NJSecularist]

17. It's tough to say

There really isn't a state that we've seen that is like Ohio. Most caucuses don't have exit poll data either.

I'd say your best bet is to use a Missouri exit poll. Missouri's exit poll data showed 80% whites, 14-15% blacks, and 2-3% Latinos. Ohio has a very similar distribution of whites, blacks and Latinos.

[usregimechange]

19. Good observations. Of course with Missouri history would skew the results as

it was before the 7 state Obama sweep...

[NoBushSpokenHere]

11. Nice Post nt

[JimGinPA]

13. Excellent Post!

I've been thinking both Ohio & Texas will be in play. Obama may not win them outright, but he'll definately split the pledge delegates.

[usregimechange]

27. Thank you!

[jconner27]

30. No show on election night

there was a letter on Bartcop the other day from a person who said they made a pledge if Obama gets the nomination due to crazies of the Obama supporters they will stay home. After seeing how Obama supporters act I can see why. I might not be a Obama supporter but I wouldn't act in the manner Obama supporters do when he wins sure I'm happy Hillary wins but I won't try to rub it in or plan death watch on the Obama campaign. Heck after reading couple of post and seeing the crap Bartcop is getting I swear some of you folks make Bush supporters sound rational.

[usregimechange]

31. Might not all Obama supporters act the same?

[SoxFan]

57. Clap Clap Point Point

[OzarkDem]

18. Pretzel Logic

Aint gonna happen.

[usregimechange]

20. You must not have seen my Obama meter!

:P

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

40. What's the flaw in the logic?

You forgot to point that out.

[apocalypsehow]

21. Thank you for a reasoned, factual analysis. Quite interesting, with the added benefit of being true.

K & R. :kick:

[femrap]

22. I'm glad to see you live in a crappy state

too...Missouri. Ohio is a dying state. I was raised here then left for many years. It is nothing like it used to be. Economically, it has endured a terrible recession and a resurgence of bible thumping.

I hope the voters of Ohio look beyond charisma and oratory skills. I hate the fact that our culture has created an American Idol atmosphere regarding the election of our President. But that's how it is.

It's out of my and your control. If BO wins the nomination, I will vote for him. Can you say the same regarding HRC?

[usregimechange]

23. I will vote for her of course.

[OzarkDem]

38. They'll stay with Clinton

Economy is the big issue in this state and like most everyone else, they want to see the Clinton era of prosperity return.

These are tough times and it takes someone with experience to turn it around, not a neophyte.

[DWilliamsamh]

48. You do know that Obama has more experience as an elected official right?

Bill Clinton isn't running Hillary is. Bill Clinton's record of accomplishment is not Hillary's. The first time around I voted for Bill Clinton even though I strongly objected to the "two for one" mantra being chanted by some. It is no more attractive now. He had the advantage of having been a Governor at least.

[elocs]

25. An interesting post that I am sure Clinton supporters will vehemently disagree with.

Although if the same things favored Clinton they would be shouting them from the housetops.

[usregimechange]

26. Well, they will not win many delegates from Cleveland, I can assure them of that

[thoughtcrime1984]

28. K&R

[McCamy Taylor]

29. Important point for Ohio: the vote in some parts is notoriously crooked, so watch out....

..you never know what the final totals may be.

SOS Blackwell and Rove did not invent election theft in Ohio 2004.

[Riley133]

65. Ouch - Counterpoint

I wanted to point out that Jennifer Brunner is making strong attempts to avoid any appearance of impropriety by encouraging paper and absentee ballots. She's done a great job already and should be commended.

You are making it sound as if there are already expections for challenges which, quite frankly, sounds like sour grapes.

[ShadowLiberal]

32. I don't think those VA poll comparisons are accurate

Those comparisons are great and all, but there's a big problem with it. Virginia contained racial/income groupings more likely to vote for Obama, which skews the results For example black people are more likely to be poor then white people, but they overwhelmingly support Obama. Like a third of the state was black people, which skews the numbers of low income people, and the older people, in favor of Obama.

Also a lot of the white people voting there were better off then the white people in Ohio are, Obama does better among higher income people, that skews his lead among white people in Ohio to look more favorable then it really is at the moment.

Obama still has a tough hill to climb in Texas and Ohio.

[usregimechange]

34. Good points, unfortunately it won't let me crunch the data by income and race

[psychopomp]

33. If you cannot be in Ohio, please consider

contributing a donation to Sen. Obama's campaign! :patriot:

[usregimechange]

35. Like right here:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/Seth77

[usregimechange]

36. Good morning kick

[Alter Ego]

37. We--and Obama--will have to work our asses off if we want it, though.

If we can win even one of the two March 4 states, it could potentially sink Hillary for good.

[wildflowergardener]

39. predictions

Well it does seem like the more the pundits try to predict the outcome of these elections by statistics or racial and age and income groups, the more they are wrong and it doesn't come out as expected.

Meg

[usregimechange]

43. Well, I am not an expert...

[wildflowergardener]

44. message

Sorry if my message was kind of short earlier - I was just getting done with my 1/2 hour lunch - that really was a very good analysis and I hope you are right.

I'm just not sure what to trust anymore really. If anything Obama does seems to fare differently in different demographics than what the news people are saying, though if anything he seems to be getting more of every group, rather than less.

Meg

[K Gardner]

45. Appreciate the time and effort you put into this, Seth ! K&R. Adding to your Obamameter then

going to buy some stuff from the ObamaStore ! Kids and grandkids hungry for t-shirts :hi:

:applause: for a job well done.

[Cha]

46. Wow! Obama is fortunate

to have people in his corner like yourself who are strongly supporting him for President of the United States.. Thanks, usrc!

[Califooyah Operative]

49. Ok, I made a donation to your fundraising page!

Keep up the good work!

[usregimechange]

50. Thank you!!!

[LulaMay]

51. She is far ahead in the Quinnipac Poll in Ohio & Pennsylvania. No president...

has been elected since 1962 without winning at least two of these swing states. The male dominated media tries daily to take her down and promote Obama. I think they will fail. She has been the clear winner of the large important state contests, and will show that again on March 4th.

[psychopomp]

52. Not only does she have to win, it has to be by a

significant margin. Ohio will be a state where the campaigns will put in a lot of effort to be on the ground throughout the state.

[OzarkDem]

53. Obama supporters insulting Ohio voters

certainly an interesting way to gain support for your candidate. Good luck with that.

[Riley133]

55. No kidding. HRC for me on the 4th. nt

[NJSecularist]

58. You mean the way HRC insulted Wisconsin

by pretty much telling them they were second rate by only showing up until the last minute?

[mikekohr]

54. EXCELLENT POST! one small point of contention however

Native Americans are the demographic that are the Democratic Party's most strident supporters, exceeding all other demographics. This is due to our party's support of tribal sovereignty and self determination as well as to the long established hostility of the Republican Party to tribal interests (ex. In 2000 a Republican Convention from Washington state resolution was passed advocating the abolishment of all tribal government. The sponsor of the resolution advocated use of the National Guard, Air Force and Marines to carry out this proposal).

In Ohio of course, the Native vote is not a factor, but let us not forget that at least two US Senators sit in Washington, DC, because of the overwhelming support of Native Americans in their states, Senator Tim Johnson (D) SD, and Maria Cantwell (D) WA. Without the support of Native Americans the US Senate would be controlled today by the Republican Party.

mike kohr

[Honeycombe8]

56. I support Obama, but this is a no-go. Clinton is over 20 pts ahead in OH.

The best Obama can do is cut the gap.

Realism is a good thing. Not creating overexpectations is a good thing, too.

[Riley133]

61. Wait, wait, is that - common sense I'm reading?

It could go either way because things are changing so swiftly, but it's the expectations (some would say hope) that worry me most.

Thank you for posting!

[Riley133]

59. The emphasis on labeling during this primary is making me crazy. nt

[Herman74]

60. It would help if Ohio's Senator Brown were to endorse Obama NOW...

...just like Senator McCaskill did before Obama won Missouri.

Hillary does have the endorsement of Ohio's governor. In addition, some Dem voters may associate the Clintons with good economic times (the 1990s), and Ohio hasn't been doing so well economically. And even though the percentage-point difference has been coming down, 14 points down is still a lot to make up.

Ohio Obama supporters: you have your work cut out for you, so work especially hard on Obama's behalf the next few weeks. If Obama wins Ohio, he'll probably win Pennsylvania, and a loss in Texas won't matter. So Ohio Obama supporters, act as if the fate of the nation lies in your hands.

Barack Obama/Sherrod Brown 2008!!!

[Name removed]

62. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Riley133]

63. Thank you, thank you, thank you! More common sense! nt

[Milo_Bloom]

64. Sorry, can't let you get away with the false statement

"vote both candidates have about 9,000,000 votes! There are currently about 50,000 votes separating the two. "

And for fun I will even include Florida, which shouldn't be included... but why not.


Obama 9,953,369

Clinton 9,541,328

That would be 50,000 votes... multiplied by 8.

Moreso, that has been a come from behind... thus, momentum applies and will continue to apply if Obama wins in Wisconsin


The Clinton spin this primary season has been pretty funny... after Florida all you read was how she was winning the popular vote and just the vote in Florida eclipses Obama... now, even with the should't be counted Florida votes, she is behind and it becomes wrong to suggest that the side handing her defeat, after defeat, after defeat, doesn't have momentum.

Riiiiiiiiiiiight.

[Riley133]

66. Oh, never mind. nt

[Carrieyazel]

67. Obama's winning streak will likely come to an end in Ohio