It was only in the Pre-Obama world that red states were out of reach

[meow mix]

i think we have a shot at some now, in the new Obama age.

[Metric System]

1. Ha! Keep telling yourself that, you'll be in for a huge shock in November! n/t

[ingac70]

6. So what red states do you think Hillary will win over? n/t.

[BringBigDogBack]

26. Take a look at the votes...

"It's the voters, stupid!"

[nonconformist]

2. "Pre-Obama world"...... "the new Obama age".....

:tinfoilhat:

[goodgd_yall]

64. LOL!

Like WTF?!

[jlake]

3. Oh yes, those dark days... years from now time will be measured by BO & AO ...

someone is dreaming by the way.

[Dagaz]

5. The rapture is near

Everyone in Idaho and Kansas will rise up and give up their guns.

[Hoof Hearted]

22. In the beginning, all was darkness and stillness, and then God said "Let there be -

[anigbrowl]

32. Actually, it was Obama who spoke...

...it says so in my cult manual right here on page 1 - the Obible.

[jackson_dem]

42. In your version. If have the Queen Oprah version of the Obible

Why do have a schism in our church already? :(

[jackson_dem]

41. Obama was sent to absolve us all of our sins

[Muttocracy]

4. Almost all the states are shades of purple

GWBush started sinking his ship years ago. See: 2006 Congressional elections

[jillan]

7. Just because he won red states against Hillary doesn't mean he will win them in the GE.

This is the funniest talking point from either campaign.

During the primaries, a Dem is going to win every state no matter if it is red or blue.
And a repug will win every state.

The contest is in the GE, not the primaries.

[davidinalameda]

8. the original poster is saying that some of the red states will be in play

if Obama is the nominee

Hillary would be good to win the states that Kerry did and maybe one or two that Bush did

but Obama puts more states in play than just the ones that Kerry won

[meow mix]

10. right, "Obama puts more states in play than just the ones that Kerry won"

:D

[jillan]

13. That remains to be seen.

BO winning red states in the primaries, does not mean he will win them in the GE>

Either Hillary or Barack will do better than Kerry did because the country is sick of the Repugs AND Kerry only campaigned in
select states. With Dean in charge of the DNC, that won't happen this time.

[meow mix]

9. that was in the old world.. were about to regain some strenght

beginning with this GE.

[sandnsea]

11. We'll at least make them spend money

And the more money they have to spend defending southern states, the more we'll have to pick up states like OH, CO, IA, NM, MO and maybe even Virginia!

[jackson_dem]

43. Obama has no shot in the South except MAYBE Florida

Look at what has been going on in the South. The composition of the Democratic electorate is not going to be the composition of the general electorate in the South.

Look at the internals of the exit polls. He has some major weaknesses that are masked by the nature of Democratic primaries and will be even greater weaknesses in the general when the electorate is different.

[FrenchieCat]

12. I'm thinking of certain districts in Red States that have blue

parts to them...and a majority congress.

[The_Casual_Observer]

14. I suppose that would be the first acid test of the "new politics"

thing.

[incapsulated]

15. I swear to god, I keep waiting for the punchline on some of these

But they never come.

:scared:

[MADem]

21. The punchline has two words to it, and it is a bit scary....

President McCain...

:scared:

[DURHAM D]

16. Name one. n/t

[donheld]

38. Colorado

[jackson_dem]

44. Colorado is now a swing state. Hillary can win it

Obama can too IF he somehow manages to convince folks to trust him with national security. If he doesn't do that he will be another Dukakis.

[donheld]

49. Of course she can, and I will do all I can to see that it happens

If she gets the nomination.

[paulk]

50. he'll also need the Hispanic vote

something he didn't get in the caucus. The Hispanic vote in CO is why Salazar won and Kerry lost.

McCain will pull independents from both of them.

[LibDemAlways]

17. You're living in a dream world.

If Gore couldn't win his home state of Tennessee, what makes you think Obama is going to have any better luck in red states in the general? Particularly after he's subjected to a smear campaign that will make the swiftboaters look like a bunch of Sunday school teachers.

He's the media's favorite right now. That, alone, should raise a huge cautionary flag.

[johnnydrama]

18. maybe the fact

that in a few he himself beat all Republican candidates combined!

[jackson_dem]

45. Just like President Dukakis did in 1988!

[NMMatt]

23. Do Hillary supporters have anything positive to say...

About anything? The irony of this is that the Hillary campaign itself has overlooked the small "Red" states. Because of it, well, Hillary probably won't be the nominee.

But that's okay. Vote for Obama, come November. Keep talking about dream worlds, and not going to happen, and so on... and when we do take Colorado, and when Virginia votes for Obama, and when Missouri is ours, and Iowa, and McCain is forced to play defense in Georgia, Louisiana and even South Carolina to eek out some wins... will you all agree to try to be a little more optimistic about our party and where our progressive values might appeal if we have an effective communicator?

I think people underestimate Obama's appeal, what huge African American tournout might mean, and underestimate how little McCain appeals to his base. This is NOT a 51% year.

[LibDemAlways]

25. I am not a Hillary supporter. I am an

Edward's supporter who was left without a candidate. I am also a realist.

McCain is by no means exciting. He will, however, be portrayed as a war hero and someone who will protect the country - the sure and steady senior statesman. He will choose a vp who will appeal to the wingnuts in order to get the evangelicals, who might otherwise be tempted to stay home, into the voting booth.

It will be a close election, and the r's are good at "winning" close elections any way that they can.

[NMMatt]

29. Regardless

You pessimistic attitude is what is wrong with the Democratic Party. Virginia is a toss-up. Colorado is a lean-Democrat right now. Get your ass out there and get people to vote. The last thing we need is to go around telling people who are enthusiastic that their hopes are false. What the hell good does that do? Maybe they will be disappointed in November and you can brag all you want... I'd rather try to win in November and win BIG than be sit on my ass and predict gloom and doom to all those who are optimistic only to have bragging rights come November.

[Ragin1]

36. I agree

This isn't in the bag by a long shot. I seriously think the Dems only shot is a Hillary/Obama ticket.

What if he picks holy Joe as his running mate? That will be a tough ticket. He won't run to the right, he will run to the center, like every other presidential candidate.

[XemaSab]

30. Amen.

:D

[MADem]

19. Uh--some Democrat won those red states .... IN THE PRIMARIES.

Every four years that happens.

When a red state has a Democratic primary, a Democrat wins it.

That doesn't translate to success in November.

Where do these 'political scientists' come from????

[Alamom]

20. When a red state has a Democratic primary, a Democrat wins it.

Thank you, MADem.

[MADem]

24. Anytime!

The convoluted logic of the "Yes We Can" crowd is too much at times!

[anigbrowl]

33. So why didn't Hillary?

[MADem]

37. She concentrated on states that Dems win in the general.

Not states they don't win.

[boppers]

40. Like Texas? n/t

[MADem]

60. There's always an exception to prove the rule. When there are eight or more, though,

you've got trouble.

Of course, the Dems HAVE won TX before. It helps to have a native son on the ticket (though we won it without one in '76), and it helps to not be running against a ticket with a native/psuedo native son on it in either the first or second slot (Reagan and Bush eras).


Keep in mind, the RED on these maps = Democratic wins.

[LibDemAlways]

28. Thanks for the reality check.

Thinking that Obama is going to be able to do what Gore couldn't do - pick off states in the South - is just plain naive. I think Obama would even have problems in a state like Pennsylvania that keeps sending Arlen Spector back to the Senate and would be fertile ground for a war vet like McCain.

[NMMatt]

34. If Gore had run against McCain...

He just might have. Besides, 8 years in Washington made Gore less appealing to Southerners. By the time he ran for president he had lost much of his appeal in the south, especially against an effective imposter like Bush.

Also, in 2000 the Republicans were hungry after having been outside the White House for 8 years. They rallied the Evangelicals against Clinton and by association Gore, and felt they had one of their own in Bush.

In 2008, in Obama, we have someone who could turn out unprecidented African American vote. You have a Republican that has almost no appeal to the disillusioned Theocrats and is being actively opposed by the Monied elite. You have a demoralized Republican Party in general after 8 years of failed policies and the most disasterous president in modern times. Add to that Obama's charisma and ability to charm the independents and some Republicans into voting against their own positions.

In all likelihood the Republicans will carry the majority of the South, however, we are likely to be competative in some of the States and I'd even characterize Virginia as a toss up to begin.

[jackson_dem]

47. Obama hasn't proven he can produce magically high black turnout

So far black turnout has been about the same as every year. In fact in California it was low.

Obama has no ability to charm rethugs into voting against their positions. If he did he would have passed more than 1 bill in the Senate and that bill was about naming a post office.

[SCDem]

52. Are you watching the news?

I'm here in South Carolina and more people turned out of every color more than ever before AND Obama had more votes than the top three Republican candidates combined.

[jackson_dem]

58. Everyone turned out

There is nothing to prove he is going to produce 99% black turnout if the nominee. He has no shot in the South in the general.

[jackson_dem]

46. Good, but simple point that is lost on them. They also have forgotten about Kerry

Kerry didn't just win rethug states like Obama. Kerry won everywhere. He won 46 states. That didn't exactly transfer to the general...

[MADem]

62. Succinct point. I keep telling people that around this time, the polls had Kerry beating Bush.

There was a surfeit of confidence in the air. It was almost cocky.

People who advised caution and suggested that overconfidence was premature were shouted down by the 'geniuses' here and called naysayers. Everyone was "so sure" he'd win in a walk. At the end of the day, the GOP kept it close enough to steal it, as you can only steal plausibly in and around the margin of error.

[TheWraith]

27. Kicked and recommended.

[Gore1FL]

31. I think a lot of that is Howard Dean actually

The 50 state strategy is much better than the 1988 and beyond strategy picking and choosing states for a fractal victory. It also builds up local party support and gives us shots at more house and Senate seats.

I would point out that if Hillary gets the nomination, we will likely see a return trip to the old strategy with a new DNC chairman, but I can't credit Obama for the strategy.

Another point is Bush has a lot to do with our chances in the Red states. He fucked things up so badly, that there are a lot of moderates heading to our side. Additionally, the likely McCain nomination takes alt of nuts out of the equation, but doesn't necessarily draw the moderates back.

No matter who gets the nomination, we are going to take some red states. I think Obama has a chance to redraw the map slightly more than Hillary, and I think greater likelihood keeping Dean is a positive for an Obama nomination. But I can't give Obama full credit for the shift.

I imagine this post will cause either a lot of cheering r a lot of flaming. I can;t tell which at this time.

[NMMatt]

35. Agree

Credit to Dean for implementing the strategy and credit to Obama for seeing the wisdom in Dean's strategy. After 2008 - The Democrats are the National Majority Party and the Republicans the Regional Party.

[jackson_dem]

48. Obama isn't going to run a 50 state campaign in the general

If he is thinking of doing it the "new JFK" needs to look up how the real JFK eked out a 0.2% win in 1960...

[SKKY]

51. I also think Dean gets a lot of the credit for the grassroots campaign...

Obama has run, especially regarding raising funds. But, he has a potential mess on his hands with this FL/MI nonsense. I hope he has something
stellar planned because it's looking like it could be ugly.

[SCDem]

53. What kind of DNC do you want in 2009 and beyond

I like Obama and voted for him.

But the main reason I did was because of his emphasis on grassroots efforts.

There was NONE on the Hilary side in my state - and South Carolina is an early state.

I convinced a lot of people to vote for Obama because I said that I see the vote far more important for what kind of Democratic Party you want in 2009 - If you want people engaged, feel like they are included, wanting to participate, building community - then Obama is the person to vote - If you want same ol same ol - Money first and we'll talk to voters later - then vote Hillary.

[Cosmocat]

55. The whole situation is completely different ...

Now than it was 4 years ago, 8 years ago or even 12 years ago ...

The 50 state strategy is one thing, but the overall text of the campaign has shifted DRAMATICALLY ...

In 96, the R hate machine was in FULL gear with the MSM falling into line behind it ... The liberal boogeyman was in full bloom amd all their talking points resonated in the context of not having any comparison ... Times were good, so people were complacent and just fall in line with it ... The Ds were sleep walking and the Rs were "fired up" ...

2000 ... The whole county was so sick and tired of the endless railing on Clinton that it just caved on Gore ... Again, things were good, the USA was great, so what was the harm in passing up the competent geek for the moron good old boy who you could have a beer with ... Those good old american values would see us through ...

2004 ... The whole R presise was sinking quickly, but they were able to hold the line on the senate and house and keep dishit in office by ramping up the "we are all going to die rhetoric" in a country still suffering from 9-11 shock ...

But, it all caved after that ... The 2006 mid terms showed a clear and tangible shift, with Ds winning every major Senate race in play and flipping the house around, AS WELL as gaining a majority share of governorships and state legistlatures ...

Two years later, the R coalition has degraded exponentially since even 2006 ...

The only thing that helps to tighten it up is a Hill nomination ...

Jesus, Hill is playing a 51 percent, big state strategy IN THE PRIMARY ...

We might NEVER have a better opportunity to break the 16 state firewall we have been hiding behind since the Big Dog's first win ...

[Jamastiene]

39. Dream on.

[Perry Logan]

54. IT'S THE MISOGYNY VOTE!!!

[Az_lefty]

56. your correct with this...Obama's rallying people in a way McQueeg cannot

we could win some of these red states with Obama where Hillary wouldn't have a chance. She isn't going to get anyone to cross over, too divisive and too Clinton. Obama has a shot at it.

[meow mix]

57. georgia and montana

i think they might flip /w obama .. and a couple others

[Marie26]

59. More like the pre-Dean world

He came up w/the 50 state strategy that Obama is using. And just in general, this "pre-Obama" "post-Obama" world is a little freaky. This isn't 9/11 or the birth of Jesus Christ.

[Zynx]

61. Keep dreaming about the ones we lost by nearly 20 in 2004.

You're only going to win them if you win by over 20 nationwide.

[meow mix]

63. and colorado..

woot

[Bluebear]

65. "The New Obama Age"? Holy cannoli . . .

[jconner27]

66. Keep telling your self that

If Obamaites think racism is over.. I got a a pro basketball team that plays in Aurban Hills mi I like to sell you.