The Tactical Genius that is Barack...or how Obama won the nomination

[sfam]

Every now and then I hear this silly subtext that by Obama supporters that he doesn't engage in "tactics" like Hillary does, or from Hillary supporters that Obama doesn't really know how to fight tough matches. This post is intended to dispel that notion - that both of these thoughts are complete bunk. In fact its quite the reverse - Obama is a flat out tactical genius. Time after time in this race, Obama has transformed Hillary's tactics into horrific backfires, while launching very successful ones of his own.

For open disclosure, I am an Obama supporter, but I do not think Hillary is the root of all evil like some here. She is trying to win, and is using quite a varied set of means to do so. The point here is Obama is doing the same thing, only better. LOTS better in fact.

Lets review. Hillary has tried a whole sequence of different ideas, among them include race baiting in SC, propping up the Florida and Michigan contests, and the empty suit/no experience trope on Obama. Lets be clear here - Hillary's strategy was based on the intent to knock out the competition by Super Tuesday. In this context, both the SC race comments and the Florida/Michigan support were a very reasonable and possibly winning tactic. If the SC approach had been successful, Obama would have won SC, but would have lost significant portions of the white vote in Super Tuesday, thereby giving her victory. Same with Florida. Hillary's highlighting of her win in Florida was supposed to have her perceived as standing up for the disenfranchised, and further embed the idea that she flat out wins the important swing states. I think this approach actually helped her in California, for instance, but overall, its been a disaster.

Now what went wrong?

1. Regarding the SC thing, Obama allowed his black surrogates to go horribly outraged, and got the "Bill & Hillary are acting like racists" meme spreading like wildfire. This happened PRIOR to Bill's infamous Jesse Jackson reference. Worse, Obama was able to spark the fire, first through back channels, and then overtly that Bill and Hillary will do or say ANYTHING to win. Like, ANYTHING. We can all agree that Bill's prominent role backfired - my point is Obama, while he personally stayed above the fray, had his campaign significantly enhance the backfire (to fellow Obama fans, this, incidentally is why Clinton supporters got so pissed at Obama - they had cause).

2. The Florida thing: I honestly believe Hillary had and has absolutely no interest in "subverting" the rules. In the context of a Super Tuesday knock-out, her strategy in Florida made some sense. Only in the aftermath - where she didn't win Florida, does it look insanely stupid. Why? Obama had already helped implant the "Hillary will do anything" meme - it was rather easy for his surrogates to push the MSM (who already love him) to take the story line that Hillary is EVEN willing to subvert the previously agreed upon rules in order to win. So instead of being the advocate for the disenfranchised, now she's perceived as trying to change the rules in midstream, JUST SO she can win, no matter the cost.

3. Obama's attack - the final nail in the coffin. Hillary, in order to boost support for her status as the front runner really started touting her lead among the super delegates. This was intended to send the message that the party luminaries "knew" the best candidate was Hillary. Obama turned Hillary's best strength on its head. Obama came out with the message that it would be really bad if the super delegates "decided" the election. His people furthered this message - that the "voters" should decided, not the "party bosses." Obama's folks solidified this by "accidentally" leaking a spreadsheet that showed their "internal" assessment that they were gonna win the pledged delegates. Quickly the MSM picked up on this, and the talk of the possibility of a brokered convention quickly transformed into "Hillary is even trying to flat out STEAL the election from the will of the people!!!"

To date, Hillary has absolutely no response to this - she is check mated. She either has to say that her super delegates don't count, or that perhaps the Florida delegates shouldn't count. Worse, everyone realizes that Florida doesn't have the money to redo the primary - if their votes will count, they almost have to be through a caucus.

Bottom line, the narrative is solidified: Hillary is perceived as the "power hungry bitch who will do ANYTHING to win the election", be it changing the rules or flat out stealing it. And here on the other side we have this inspirational candidate who stays above the fray - who is just trying his best to get the votes, even if it means he has to win by getting a HUGE majority of the votes from actual voters to overcome Hillary's HUGE advantage with the party bosses - all of which she got through calling in previous chits (meaning they really don't like her). We are now seeing larger and larger margins of victory. Why? Because people hate cheaters, and they can't STAND the thought of a candidate stealing the election.

None of this is true, mind you. Hillary will NOT destroy the party to win, any more than Barrack or the super delegates will. The brokered convention thing is just an MSM fantasy - the Hillary stealing the race meme builds on this, but was fully implanted by Obama.

So the moral of this story is, when a guy tells you he grew up on Chicago politics, and KNOWS how to play the game, perhaps you should believe him. :)

And if you think the Republicans are gonna eat this guy for lunch, then I have a bridge to sell you.

[yeswecan08]

1. Obama is the smartest man in American politics - not just IQ alone

[sfam]

68. Or his chief strategist, David Axelrod is...

I think its just a matter of time before Axelrod's IQ jumps about 2-30 points in the MSM chatter.

[K Gardner]

2. There was a great article in today's NY Times about Obama's campaign and

his strategy.. much of which I'd never heard before. I'll try to find it online and post it later. Too excited now to surf the net !

[sfam]

4. Please do - I'd love to see it. NT

[moc]

16. Was it this?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/us/politics/12obama.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin

I couldn't resist surfing for it! :bounce:

[sfam]

31. I'm guessing it was...very good article! nt

[K Gardner]

32. Yes ! You found it, thank you !! This ones going in my scrapbook !

[Occam Bandage]

3. Obama is brilliant. But he hasn't won it yet.

[sfam]

7. I just don't see Hillary changing the subtext narrative at this point...

If she doesn't she cannot win. Perhaps she can, but to date, Obama has eaten her for lunch in the perception battle. My guess is what we see are continuing massive victories.

[AX10]

5. Obama 2008 is the Bush of 2000.

He is playing the same dirty games that he played in 2000.

I may abstain my vote if he is the nominee.
Obama played the race card first, and I am offended by that.

[burythehatchet]

15. You really should have your own blog.

[sfam]

17. I do...but its for reviewing cyberpunk movies. :)

http://cyberpunkreview.com/movies-ordered-by-star-rating/

[sfam]

22. You're really missing the point here...ALL the politicians do this stuff...

Obama just does it better. And truly, his tactics have not divided the party or the country - instead they've made Hillary look personally bad - FAR FAR worse than she really is. Saying that he played the race card first is really a kinard - he didn't. He merely exploited Hillary's forays into this in a way that galvanized anger against HER - not against a specific group.

This is very different, for instance, than what Hillary did regarding blacks and hispanics. BTW, that tactic has worked wonderfully for her.

[LadyVT]

6. "Chicago politics" is a reference to the mob...

I sure wouldn't say that was a compliment about Obama, and I'm surprised he's used it.

[Occam Bandage]

10. Not really. It's a reference to Chicago politics.

[sfam]

11. Chicago politics is not really a mob reference...but it doesn't imply...

that the candidate wins without tactics - quite the reverse in fact. The most incredible thing about this is the general population sees him as not doing this crap, when in fact he does...masterfully in fact. This is a good thing.

[ginnyinWI]

39. it's a very good thing, thinking of the General Election

It shows he's got the stuff to go the distance. And just imagine all the other Dems down-ticket who also stand to benefit, too

[sfam]

41. Exactly. McCain is gonna get his ass handed to him...

Unlike Obama, McCain is the polar opposite of smooth. Yes, he's a streetfighter, but this isn't really the greatest trait in a presidential contest. Obama will take the punches with a straight face, deep reassuring voice and smooth demeanor. He'll stay above the fray, launching legit attacks, while his "people" work the subtext.

This will get especially gory if McCain has to pick Huckabee. Just imagine the subtext streamed to the independents: "McCain is old enough to die and office, and if he does, we get a guy that disbelieves evolution exists, wants to rewrite the constitution to reflect God's law, and wants to institute a loony tax plan!!!!"

[bklyncowgirl]

14. The don't play pitty pat politics in Chicago

Big city politics is a pretty good training ground--as Clinton's beginning to find out.

[Mojambo]

8. Interesting post.

Although not a supporter of Obama (or Senator Clinton) I kinda chuckle at the meme that Obama is some political pushover who can't play the game.

[TheDonkey]

9. He hasn't won.

But please get to work on your article when/if he does!

[sfam]

26. Keep telling yourself that...

And keep making those phone calls!!! Texas NEEDS us! :)

[sandnsea]

12. Shaheen, Kerrey, et al

1. Many people were making racist statements so when the questionable statements started coming straight from Bill & Hil, outrage was appropriate.

2. Puhleeze.

3. Puhleeze, puhleeze.

Hillary lost because she actually DID every one of the things you've posted and the voters saw it all for what it was. The willingness to "say anything to win".

She continues to do this almost every day, by dissing caucus states, Louisiana's black voters, the Potomac states, covering up for her mismanaged campaign, and on and on.

She lost this campaign all by herself.

[sfam]

13. Yes, she did do it, but it very well might have doomed Obama..

Instead he totally turned this on Hillary. If you think Hillary's staff are idiots at this game, you're not watching. Its only viewed as a HUGE miscalculation now because of how Obama's campaign transformed this message. This was NOT a given. Obama could have EASILY turned into the "black" candidate had he played this wrong.

[sandnsea]

19. I completely agree with that

He countered everything thrown at him beautifully. Not only that, I think he came out stronger each time. I think when he owns that his campaign isn't perfect, he can talk about her campaign and it doesn't sound like an attack. He uses graciousness to his complete advantage. Yes he did great. But he didn't create what the Clinton campaign did, those words and actions were very real and they chose them.

[rodeodance]

40. The willingness to "say anything to win".---yes, that is the Obama way!

[katty]

18. he is a master politician - very much like Bill Clinton

[sfam]

20. Agreed. Bill Clinton in his prime was masterful...but...

I really do believe Barack's race gives him a huge advantage. Barack is able to dance around racial concerns in a way that nobody previously believed possible. This gives him a dimension that Bill only wished he had.

[D23MIURG23]

21. Obama is doing well, but don't celebrate prematurely.

Hillary IS going to fight every step of the way until she can't possibly win.

[sfam]

23. She has to change the narrative...she's not gonna, or else...

she already would have.

Unlike many Obama supporters, I don't buy into the hype. I see Hillary as a very upstanding person - someone who truly wants to do right for the country. Yes, she's as ego filled as all the rest, but she will NOT destroy the party in order to win the nomination. More importantly, she is truly a genius - she can read the writing on the wall just as well as I can.

[D23MIURG23]

49. I don't know about destruction or genius but...

She is still campaigning in Texas, and to me that doesn't seem like the behavior of someone about to concede. Neither does the fact that she has re-arranged her campaign recently. I take these observations as a sign that she is regrouping, and about to redouble effort.

I'm not saying this to suggest that Hillary plans to take the party down out of resentment if she isn't the nominee. I just know that she wants this badly, and sometimes strong desires cloud better judgment, and make people shortsighted. If at the end of primary season she is only trailing Obama by a small amount there will be a temptation for her to fight to the convention.

I believe that Obama supporters should give their support as though this race is far from over rather than declare victory prematurely.

[sfam]

52. The problem is not her desire..its the narrative that has been put in place...

If Hillary cannot change this, than she really has no chance of winning, or even coming close. That's the point of this thread.

[D23MIURG23]

56. She will come close because of proportional delegation.

Obama's post super-tuesday sweeps have put him ahead by 100 or so delegates but he still needs roughly 600 to become the presumptive nominee. If I did the math right a 100 delegate increase over 7 primary wins averages to a gain of roughly 14 delegates per primary. Assuming a constant rate of +14 delegates per primary Obama will need roughly 43 more wins to get the necessary delegates (I know this model is crude, but you can see where I am going with this). You are right that HRC's narrative isn't widening her support, but her core supporters are still numerous enough to bring her plenty of delegates.

Obama's message is widening his support, but my sense is that a high rate of defection will be necessary to keep superdelegates from deciding the race. If the race is close enough to be decided by the supers then it will be HRC's desire and determination that decide whether we have a nominee before the convention, and the smaller the gap is between her and Obama, the more likely she will be to stay in the race.

I think you are right to believe that Obama will be the eventual winner, but don't forget the particulars of the process that will get him there.

[sfam]

59. Your math is wrong...I think you mean 14 delegate LEAD per primary..

not 14 delegates overall per primary.

[D23MIURG23]

64. Yeah I got my wires crossed

my calculation would work if he needed a 600 delegate lead. Whoops.

Guess that's the natural consequence of hurried mental calculation while posting during work.

My point is simply that it is difficult to widen a lead with proportional representation. That can work to Hillarys advantage depending on what she plans to do. Ultimately I think Obama will win, but I don't see this as being over, and I don't want Obama supporters to play it like it is.

[sfam]

66. It will be even harder for Hillary to catch up, but again...

As long as the subtext is that Hillary is trying to "steal" the election, I fully expect to see Obama's significant margins continue. His lead WILL widen - significantly in fact. If he ends up with a 200+ delegate lead the Super Delegates are going to flock to him.

[D23MIURG23]

69. Its a valid point.

If he ends up with 2025 by virtue of pre-convention superdelegate pledges does that make him presumptive nominee?

[XemaSab]

24. I think the really powerful thing he's doing here is making it look effortless

She's obviously in full bucket-brigade mode, and he's out playing some hoops.

She's offering excuses for why she's losing states, and he's just like, "Eh, so I didn't win Cali, it's all good" and not trying to control the damage, just letting the thing play out.

[woolldog]

36. It's old versus new

old politics versus new, spin versus straight talk.

[sfam]

37. Agreed. He's really got the narrative won...

I just don't see how Hillary turns this around. Howard Fineman's comments today about how Hillary just wants to keep it close enough to win with Supers again feeds right in to the "Hillary is trying to steal it". We will continue to see huge margins because of this.

[OzarkDem]

25. You guys should be embarrassed

He's winning because the GOP and news media are letting him win, for now.

I can't believe you're falling for this.

[stevietheman]

33. Enough with the MSM paranoia... Obama is winning because people...

want him to be President. Period.

[sfam]

34. That's a bit too much for me, sorry...

So the Dems have no chance of making their own destiny? Its ALL up to the MSM, and nothing the candidates do can matter? Um, OK...if you really believe that, have at it.

[Samantha]

27. But let's give some additional credit where it is due

Ted Kennedy and John Kerry stuck their political necks out when it was not politically correct to do, and one cannot underestimate their contribution. Historically, they have both run a lot of races; they both won some and lost some. Add their accumulated historical election know-how together, and one could not ask for a finer set of coaches. And to add icing to the cake, they are both liberals, from that wing of the party Hillary decided to abandon when she moved to the middle even before she announced.

This is what I was thinking earlier this evening before I came to this site and read your very fine thread. I don't mean to take anything away from Obama and his political acumen. Like you, I sat up and paid attention to his remark about his exposure to Chicago politics -- this in response to a commentator who mused to Obama's face that he might be politically too idealistic and dedicated to riding that political high horse to take on the Clinton machine. I think his campaign organizers, along with Obama's direct input have exhibited a remarkable facility not only to meet the Clinton machine, but to better it. In that regard, Obama has put to bed -- and this is important -- that meme that he cannot take on the Republicans in the General Election. Anyone that can best the Clinton machine, with Penn at the helm, can ride out in political war and joust with the best Republican out there, even one with Rove at his elbow (think McCain's recent remarks).

It's a great night for Barack Obama. It's a better night for Michelle and their two daughters, who are not political junkies, to have stood by the better candidate to experience the sweet taste of success tonight. But it is the best of nights for the cumulative body of the liberal elective -- and I do salute you Ted and John (Kerry), for you have helped make the Democratic wing of the Democratic party's dream come true.

[sfam]

28. I ABSOLUTELY agree with you...especially about Teddy...

Even as well as Obama was doing, I just don't see him doing as well as he did on Super Tuesday had Teddy and Caroline not endorsed him. He closed a 20 point gap in a week. And its very possible that Teddy wouldn't have endorsed had Kerry not already done so.

[Samantha]

29. Okay, since you agreed with what I said I am nominating and kicking

your thread!

Seriously, I agreed with everything YOU said. You seem to agree with my thoughts, and in this forum to date, for two people to completely agree, is both rare and amazing!

[sfam]

30. 'tis a rare thing indeed!

Thanks for the kick. :)

[ginnyinWI]

42. and also because he gave that speech at the O4 Convention.

Kerry could have chosen not to ask him to give that speech, thinking him either too new or too apt to grab a lot of attention. But Kerry chose him anyway.

[sfam]

45. Great point. Kerry gave him his start...its only reasonable that...

he continues to support him. Obama definitely owes Kerry as much as he does the Kennedy family.

My guess is he pays off his Kennedy debt in the future with Robert's son who is currently a representative, and may want to be something greater. My guess is he gets a cabinet position.

[gravity]

35. He is playing poltics so well, no one even notices it

Obama is incredibly smart, he knows what he is doing

[ginnyinWI]

44. he makes it look like all fun and games.

That's probably why people think he won't hold up in the General Election. I think they're going to be surprised.

[Laelth]

38. Cracking good read.

Comforting and confidence-building too. Thanks.

:dem:

-Laelth

[rodeodance]

43. too bad he does not have the nomination yet hey?

[sfam]

46. I've addressed this in a number of the responses...

If Hillary is not able to change the narrative that has been established - the embedded subtext that I mention above - she has no chance of winning. Based on the coverage today, it's still going in the other direction.

Hillary's "strategy" as Fineman calls it of only losing the pledged delegate total by a little in order to win it with the Supers is already a non-starter. Truly. That this story is still being given will only further the meme that Hillary is trying to "steal" the election.

Again, to clearly point out, I don't think there is any truth to this, but flat out, Obama owns this talking point.

So here's the issue: How does Hillary turn that issue around such that she can win with Superdelegates, even though she loses the pledged count which she already admits she will lose?

Bottom line, I don't think its possible. Worse, BECAUSE people now perceive she's trying to steal the election, the margins for victory will stay huge.

If she can change this...fine. I just don't see it. Hence the title of the post.

[rodeodance]

47. i follow you-yet she is a strong determined women. So much can happen yet. thanks.

[Robb]

48. I'm really glad

...I popped into GDP. And that's saying something. ;)

Good analysis. And thoughtful responses. It's like DU, or something. :D

[AtomicKitten]

50. Very well thought-out OP.

thanks for posting

[VotesForWomen]

51. the one thing you left out- a free pass from the media. just wait until they take that free pass b

back.

[sfam]

53. You don't think Barack affected their views on him?

He deserves no credit for the great coverage he's received? This can change, but it will be done by either a story or more likely, a new gambit by someone. If that's the case, Barack has a chance to counter. I think he could have been doomed a number of times in the race so far, but he clearly knows how to work the media wonderfully. He still has this skill going forward.

[MethuenProgressive]

54. Obama's Brilliant Swiftboating of the Clintons on Race steals the nomination.

Not everyone is in awe of the Swiftboating success of the Obamas.

[sfam]

58. This is hardly comparable to swiftboating and you know it...

This is all about two campaigns using tactics - one counter-punched better than the other. Nobody was swift-boated.

[eridani]

55. Myself, I think it's about Obama embracing the 50 state strategy--

--and Clinton rejecting it.

[sfam]

61. Obama had an Iowa or Bust strategy...but if he won Iowa, he knew that...

He would have to go well past Super Tuesday. And yeah, what a terrific idea to scrounge for delegates in every state on the calendar. Hillary was woefully inadequate at responding to this.

[applegrove]

57. That Obama and his team are so crafty...that actually makes me feel

better about them. And I'm a Hillary fan. I want the one who is the nominee to be the one who will win the GE. That's pretty much all I care about.

If obama is more subtle but just as tough - great. I haven't seen it much though. I look forward to the debates and see if Obama keeps improving.

[sfam]

60. Great! This was the purpose of the OP...if you now think of Obama as..

more crafty than he appears, then I think the whole "Barack will get trashed" thing goes in the background somewhat.

I really do think a case can be made here that Obama is largely responsible for Hillary's current narrative - that she's trying to steal the election. If this isn't a sign of being crafty, I don't know what is.

[ClericJohnPreston]

62. Wheres the bridge?

A little premature there, huh skippy?

[sfam]

67. See my response in post #46 nt

[elixir]

63. No, their going to eat him for breakfast. He's toast - if he gets past Hillary, that is. If.

[sfam]

65. Wow, thanks for the well thought-out rebuttal of my point!

I guess we'll have to take your word for it, ey?