Buyer's remorse in primaries (united parties versus divided parties)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

The most unified the Democratic party has ever been (without an incumbent) was in 2004. We tend to "fight the last war", focusing in the most recent example.

Kerry's 2004 run from Iowa to uncontested candidate was an anomaly. A more common course is for a candidate to get to the point where everyone thinks he will win, but hasn't clinched anything, at which point people go wild voting for the loser.

Huckabee today is a good example... voters like to install a front-runner, but don't like ending the process. The only odd thing is that it's usually more a Democratic thing than a Republican thing. That means the Republican Party today is as divided and contrary as the Democratic party usually is.

Jerry Brown romped on Bill Clinton after it was too late in 1992. Ted Kennedy tore up Carter in 1980 after it was obvious he couldn't get the delegates to win.

Buyers' remorse works in presidential elections too, sometimes. Humphrey very nearly beat Nixon in the last two weeks, and Ford very nearly beat Carter in the last two weeks.

So my advice to Hillary is to see if she can get the buyers' remorse process started early.

Both campaigns map out the pledged delegate race as being quite close. Barack will win everything in February, but Hillary has a run of favorable territory once she gets past February. The horse race media will see these ten Obama wins in a row and make him the front-runner, and Hillary should probably go with the flow.

If the buyers' remorse phase starts too early (like late February) she could get a double boost.

So be as forlorn as you want, Hillary. You will not be buried by momentum. Game the powers that be into thinking they might lose their horse-race and try to get the inevitable late primary under-dog surge going prematurely. (Premature from Obama's perspective.)

(My best friend likes Obama, but decided to vote for Hillary Tuesday only after the Maine results came in... not because he feels sorry for her, but because once he saw Obama as a nominee, rather than a symbol, a seriousness set in and he decided it was irresponsible not to vote for who he honestly believes would make the better President just because he dislikes her.)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

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