BREAKING FROM WP: No democratic candidate can win nomination now without help of superdelegates

[Tropics_Dude83]

http://www.politicalwire.com/

Amazing:

The Washington Post's Paul Kane: "We've done a bad job of explaining this, but it is now basically mathematically impossible for either Clinton or Obama to win the nomination through the regular voting process (meaning the super-delegates decide this one, baby!).

"Here's the math. There are 3,253 pledged delegates, those doled out based on actual voting in primaries and caucuses. And you need 2,025 to win the nomination. To date, about 55% of those 3,253 delegates have been pledged in the voting process -- with Clinton and Obamb roughly splitting them at about 900 delegates a piece. That means there are now only about 1,400 delegates left up for grabs in the remaining states and territories voting.

"So, do the math. If they both have about 900 pledged delegates so far, they need to win more than 1,100 of the remaining 1,400 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting.

"Ain't gonna happen, barring a stunning scandal or some new crazy revelation. So, they'll keep fighting this thing out, each accumulating their chunk of delegates, one of them holding a slight edge and bothing finishing the voting process with 1,600 or so delegates. And then the super delegates decide this thing. That's the math."

[Blue_In_AK]

1. Oh, THAT'S going to go over well with the populace. n/t

[bunkerbuster1]

4. It will be fine if Howard Dean and the DNC honor the people's wishes.

Obviously, the voting public don't want the "superdelegates" (what a stupid term!) to vote contrary to the way the voting public voted.

[dmallind]

17. Sure but based on what criterion?

When a candidate can get more delegates with fewer votes, it's already contrary to the way the public voted. Chances are unless a clear pull away happens there will be many definitions of "winning" - popular vote, delegate count, state count, district count, etc.

[frazzled]

Yeah, but what if the "people's wishes" are still divided by a razor-thin margin ...

by the time of the Convention?

What if one has 30 more delegates than the other? All of Candidate X's delegates will be expected to go over to Candidate Y over a 30 delegate difference? This is a disaster.

[Baclava]

55. So Madam President has it in the bag?

The fix is in?

That won't go over well..

[sidwill]

10. As long as the Supers go with whoever has more regular Delegates

It won't be an issue, if they split or attempt to give the nod to the one with fewer delegates then it will blow up.

[Seen the light]

2. If the super delegates disagree with pledged delegates

...then all hell will break loose.

We need to get rid of superdelegates and have election reform even within the Democratic Party.

[DUyellow]

3. LINK

[jefferson_dem]

18. Buried here.

Just one dude's opinion is all.

[LakeSamish706]

5. This whole DNC concocted POS needs to be gotten rid of... Just saying... n/t

[UALRBSofL]

9. They need to get rid of the superdelegates

This isn't going to go over well come convention. Just my opinion.

[bluestateguy]

6. We have to do away with this system for 2012

It's one thing for congresspeople and Senators to be delegates, but I kin dof have a problem with giving automatic delegate status to the likes of former House Speakers, former presidents and members of the DNC.

[harun]

7. A lot of people are going to be PISSED either way (n/t)

[ORDagnabbit]

8. one party led by the privileged....weeeeeeee

[2Design]

11. edwards can then put his delegates to whoever is the best for country n/t

[frazzled]

31. Oh right, the 26 Edwards delegates should decide for the whole party

That's even more of an affront than having 800 Super Delegates decide it.

Jeebus, talk about kool-aid.

[Freddie Stubbs]

32. All 26 of them

[tekisui]

This is why Dean said that some sort of deal should be worked out

between Clinton and Obama. When he said that, I thought isn't it up to the voters?

Dean wants it to be up to the voters, and the only way for that to woek is if one drops out when the other has some sort of lead.

[Aviation Pro]

12. And so the seating of the MI and FL delegates is now in play....

....

[tekisui]

14. They are suggesting a caucus in Michigan.

[Barack_America]

21. The MI turnout was horrible...

There's no way they can say that primary represented Michigan Democrats.

As it stands now, there's no way those delegates can be seated.

[Aviation Pro]

24. So run a special election for both states....

...simple, fair and logical.

[Barack_America]

47. Depends on the $...

Michigan isn't exactly well-off right now and if the money for this special election is going to affect spending for the campaigns of downticket Dems, then I say no.

[WCGreen]

52. Any more than a caucus of a few select players should speak for

all the democrats in a state...

I say get rid of the caucus as well as the super delegates...

[John Q. Citizen]

28. Not without an actual chance to campaign it isn't. MI and FL need a do over.

[Orangepeel]

13. The superdelegates will split, too.

The superdelegates are elected officials. One might get more than the other, but they aren't going to vote as a block. So, it isn't like one candidate will win a clear majority of the pledged delegates and then the superdelegates will over rule that. The superdelegates will vote along with the pledged delegates and one candidate will get more votes.

That's not a disaster.

:shrug:

[ursi]

15. in other words, it ain't gonna happen unless one of them has more sh*t on themselves then the other?

[Barack_America]

16. We'll have to see...

If one candidate wins the majority of delegates in the upcoming primaries, then the DNC is going to have to pressure the remaining superdelegates to align with the candidate that represents the will of the people.

What we're seeing now is why superdelegates are allowed to change sides.

And I think it will also be important for Democrats who don't agree with superdelegates deciding a nomination to make their feelings heard.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

19. Go President Hillary!

[marlakay]

20. I heard they started this because of McGovern

is that right? I guess they didn't like who "the people" choose and started this. Its crazy. we the people should get to choose.

they should do a revote in those states after letting everyone campaign.

i don't think they should not count at all because its not fair to the people who live there what the governor and other leaders did to them.

[frogcycle]

22. Hey Dems, does your foot hurt?

You could have gone with the most highly qualified, rallied around an obvious heir apparant to the presidency - but no, you wanted to make history! You wanted to do something wild and crazy. Well, next time, pull that gun out of the holster before you fire, or you'll shoot rourselves in the other foot, too.

[UALRBSofL]

29. Here in florida we had record turnout

of democratic voters, around 1,800,000. Were looking at 231 delegates not including superdelegates. And you know what's going on in florida. I have no idea what's gonna happen. It concerns me.

[mathewsleep]

23. there will be rioting if the super delegates

choose either of the two. i'd riot if they give it to hillary, and i'd except they'd do the same.
and rightfully so.

[pampango]

40. I think the "rioting" would only happen if the SDs handed it to the one

with fewer elected delegates. If my candidate has fewer elected delegates and the SDs pick the other one to be the nominee, I won't be happy, but that's how democracy works.

[Botany]

25. It is Feb. 7 the convention is August 25th

There is no need to worry about this right now. The man or women who runs
the best campaign and pulls the lion share of votes will be in good shape
when the convention happens.

BTW I am very worried about my fall clean up of leafs in November.

[ozone_man]

26. The candidate with the most pledged delegates should win.

The hell with super delegates. That rule needs to change.

If the candidate with the most pledged delegates loses, that will leave a bad taste, because it goes against the will of the people.

[kennetha]

33. so let me get this straight

You favor changing the rules in one case -- eliminating the role of the super delegates. Do you also favor changing the rule in the other case that is contributing to this chaos -- rescinding the DNC's disenfranchisement of Fla and Mich voters?

Just asking.

[ozone_man]

57. Michigan and Florida delegates have already been reallocated

to the other states. This was all established long before the primary began. There is no disenfranchisement. Florida and Michigan chose to disobey the part rules. The DNC reallocated their delegates to the other states. There are still 4,049 delegates and super delegates, and 2,025 required. But none of those delegates will be coming from Florida or Michigan.

[thecrow]

27. I know! Let the Supreme Court decide!

It's not like it's unprecedented or anything .
:sarcasm:

:rofl:

[tritsofme]

30. My prediction is that super-delegates break for the candidate with the highest popular vote total.

Many will remain unpledged until it is clear.

[incapsulated]

34. Which is why they should let Florida and Michigan vote again

I would rather that, and have the voters decide, than superdelegates.

This is why this primary is a nightmare.

[sunonmars]

36. Why does'nt the DNC ask the people of Florida and Michigan if the vote should stand

Do a huge poll in the state of Michigan and Florida, it can be organized easily with the most neutral polling body and ask the simple question, of, should the poll results of Michigan and Florida stand.

A random sample of about 10'000 people ought to produce the correct answer.

If it is yes, then the results stand and if it is no, then the votes should be redone.

[oviedodem]

39. The votes should not stand as is; I WANT A DO OVER!

[incapsulated]

42. I think it should be done over

A lot of people didn't bother voting because they thought it wouldn't matter.

[incapsulated]

41. Well, it seems Dean is considering it

Caucusing those States or something.

He doesn't want a fight on the convention floor and has said the last thing he wants is to go into the convention undecided.

[bunnies]

35. I need a link please. nt

[DUyellow]

37. waiting for LINK

[MadHound]

38. This is what Hillary is counting on at this point

Short on money, scrambling for a new primary strategy now that her first one didn't work out, Hillary is counting on keeping just close enough that the super delegates will get her the nomination. She figures that with twenty years of favors and blackmails to call in, she can get enough superdelegates into her corner to win the nomination.

This highly undemocratic process will backfire on her, alienating even more people from voting for her in November, and she will lose, badly. If this comes to pass, you can say hello to President McCain and VP Huckabee.

[tritsofme]

43. 20 years of blackmail? Did Hillary rush out of the WH with her enemies FBI files?

I thought the Rush Limbaugh show ended an hour ago...

[MadHound]

49. Ooo, nice personal attack there,

Certainly shows that you have no grounding in the real world or in realpolitik. Have you ever been to a convention? Do you know what kind of arm twisting, long knives, and yes favors called in, and blackmail is performed?

I do, and frankly it is ugly as hell. If you are a delegate, with a key vote, you are either going to be granted favors(hey, you want a plum ambassadorship?) or if it can be pulled off, yes, blackmail(hey, you know that hotty that seduced you last night, well we've got pictures and if you don't fork over, so will your wife).

And yes, the Clintons have twenty years of these favors and blackmails stored up, ready to be put to use. She doesn't need FBI files, she's got files of her own. This isn't a RW talking point, this is realpolitik. Hell, I'm sure that Obama has got files of his own also, especially given that he's coming out of the Chicago Democratic machine. However his are nowhere as extensive as Hillary's are, thus she holds a huge edge.

It's called realpolitik, I suggest that you acquaint yourself it. One good way is to become a delegate, or an alternate from your state. It is a real eye opener.

[rateyes]

44. Can anyone say "darkhorse candidate?"

Al Gore? John Edwards? :woohoo:

[tritsofme]

45. Not likely, someone will win the first ballot.

Delegates are pledged through the first ballot, it may be just a matter of which candidate superdelegates push through on the first ballot.

[underpants]

46. Voting from within the castle walls-the ruling class will decide

That means Hillary wins.

[Baclava]

56. The cabal has spoken?

[Tropics_Dude83]

48. F*ck guys, I am tired of being accused of being a liar

Here's the frigging link:

http://www.politicalwire.com/

Now can you please apologize for calling me a liar in a de facto way.

[Unsane]

51. I'm not sure about that. MSNBC's Chuck Todd has been parroting the idea that

Obama, should he string together victories over the next several primaries and caucuses, will amass a pledged delegate total that will eclipse Hillary's entire total (pledged + super) altogether. Thus, if he keeps winning primary after primary, she can never overtake him, even with superdelegates.

[HopeforChange]

50. So then how do the people get to pick the candidate?

Sounds like this thing is fixed so the establishment can pick our president for them.

That really sucks.

[rucky]

53. This changes everything.

And all this cash that Obama's raising becomes less of an advantage.

[Unsane]

54. Not at all

The cash will help him win many of the primaries, which will create the impression of inevitability and pressure superdelegates to vote in his favor. It's very important that he win the most pledged delegates.