Who do you HONESTLY think will actually win the Democratic Primary?

[RoadRage]

Poll question: Who do you HONESTLY think will actually win the Democratic Primary?

Don't vote based solely on who you WANT to win.

With all of the factors that you consider important (Media Coverage or Media Biases, Campaign Funding or Cash on hand, Future Primary States, Current and or possible endorsements for your candidate, etc.) who do you honestly think is going to win? This is not a who do you WANT to win poll... so please try to keep this vote honest to yourself!

[Mojambo]

1. I'd give Obama a solid edge presently. n/t

[Adsos Letter]

2. I actually think Hillary will win in the long run....

but I think she is going to have to approach Obama for VP...or vice-versa...

At this point, I don't think either one of them can win in November without the other...

[RoadRage]

7. I think Hillary might need Obama, but I don't know if Obama would need Hillary...

I think some Obama supporters might only vote for her if he's on the ticket. But, I think many Dems would come around and vote for Obama anyway - because they're more liberal, and would prefer anyone to a McCain. Obama pulls more from the middle of the road, and if he isn't on top of the ticket, I think some of his voters would actually vote for McCain, or be comfortable staying home.

And, I also think it's a moot point - i don't think either of them will ask the other to be on the ticket. Edwards still looks good to either of them at this point.

[Abacus]

3. I honestly thought it'd be Hillary until yesterday,

but I think the odds favor Obama for now.

[Quixote1818]

20. Me Too

Though it's odd how the media has almost been playing it like momentum switched to Hillary. Guess they haven't looked close at the next 10 states many of which favor Obama.

[Ken Burch]

4. Did you mean "The Democratic Nomination"?

n/t.

[Sir Jeffrey]

5. I don't think Hillary has a backup plan...

they thought it would be over by now. They apparently didn't plan to do much between now and the convention, since they are apparently running low on money. Now they have to retool while Obama piles on this month. I simply don't think that much of Penn, MacAulliffe and the rest of their advisors. If they had a fucking clue about what they were doing, they wouldn't have squandered a 20 point lead in three months or so.

[TSIAS]

6. Obama

I wouldn't have said this 6 weeks ago. But Clinton lost her chance to put him away on Super Tuesday. If Obama continues at this pace, he'll have enough time to wipe away more of Clinton's 20 + point leads.

The schedule favors Obama from this point on. I thought Super Tuesday was going to work against him, since Clinton is the household name. Now that the primary schedule is more manageable, Obama can spend a lot more time in individual states. From everything I've seen so far, Obama does better the more people get to know him.

The money problems are definitely a problem. It's never a good sign when campaign staff stops getting paid. We saw it with Giuliani last month. While it is possible to recover (see Kerry and McCain), more often than not it's a sign of significant weakness.

And finally, I think the establishment is warming up to Obama. It's not a certainty that the super-delegates will automatically align behind Clinton.

[MadBadger]

8. Hillary because of superdelegates.

[Colobo]

17. That would destroy the party- it would take the victory out of the people.

[RoadRage]

9. I think the turning point was when John Edwards dropped out..

I'm not saying this at ALL to tick off current or former Edwards supporters. I'm saying this as an opinion, that when he dropped out of the race many of his supporters went to Obama, and that is why he was able to come out with a 50% (or 49.8%) finish on Super Tuesday. If Edwards would have been in, Clinton would have had higher wins, more wins, and in the states she lost - they would have been much closer.

So, I honestly now think with John Edwards out of the race, Obama will be the nominee. I think he will continue on his path of converting skeptics one rally at a time.. once people see him speak they are much more likely to flip to him. He has time now.. it's his to lose.

[ShadowLiberal]

10. At first I felt confident after yesterday it was Obama, now I'm not so sure

At first I felt pretty good hearing all of this news about Hillary's campaign being broke, and that the next states favor Obama. But now I'm not so sure, I've read that states like Texas and Ohio don't have the make ups to favor Obama. Texas has a lot of Hispanics, and not a lot of high income people. Ohio doesn't have a lot of high income people. Now I am nervous about his chances again with how the media will soon start going "Obama has it in the bag".

[RoadRage]

12. Good Points about TX & OH...

I think he has a shot at OH.. Union voters like him once they get to know him, and realize that they have to pick someone else besides Edwards.

The Texas hispanic vote will be tough though. Although it is looking like younger hispanics favor Obama, and older ones favor Clinton - just like other demographics. He just has to really focus on that.

And, i'm not sure his "i'm for legalizing drivers licenses" plan is helping or hurting him there.. it didn't seem to resonate with Californian hispanics very much.

[Colobo]

19. He needs to do many Latino oriented events, especially in Mexican-American communities.

They need to feel "comfortable" with him. It sounds racist, but it's what it is.

[marlakay]

11. Obama will win because the people will

demand it. Already I have heard people who voted for her say they wish they could take it back and change. People are just getting to know him and seeing what they like.

People are tired of crooked politicians and people who fight dirty to win. We want a smart, educated president that will fix Iraq and our standing in the world. We want a family person because after all whether we are married or not we all wish we had or lived in a happy family.

The moment this campaigning is over Bill will probably go back to other women...most of America knows their marriage is all about working together to have power. Personally I would love to go back to how it was with Kennedy and Carter and seeing younger kids in the white house.

Wouldn't it be great to see kids running on the lawn with a dog or a easter egg hunt?

[PermanentRevolution]

13. Honestly?

Right now, I really don't know. It really looks likely that nobody's going to lock it up before the convention. And how the superdelegates break is going to depend on a lot of factors that are going to shift constantly between now and then.

[RoadRage]

14. I agree.. my fear is if the super D's pick the candidate who doesn't win the popular vote

If that's what it comes down to.. things will get very messy. And i'm saying for either side.. Hillary fans will throw a fit, or likewise so will Obama fans.

As long as the Super D's line up the way the majority want it to play out - all will be fine.

[TankLV]

15. Just sticking my neck out here - a Democrat?

Taking a real risk...

And you all can quote me on this...

[Heathen57]

16. I put Clinton down

Because even though Obama was a second choice with Hillary a distant third, I feel that since the DLC and the MSM have already crowned her as the candidate she will get it.

Besides she and Bill have been pulling in a lot of promises from the super-delegates and they could easily put her in.

[abburdlen]

18. Yesterday morning

I thought Clinton would end up winning the nomination and last night watching the results come in I thought she still had a better than even shot but it's looking less and less likely for her

She needed to slow his momentum and the big wins in CA could have done that but the story today was the $5mil loan, not her win.
Spin or reality, she gets the losing meme tied to her until the next contests and those are looking good for Obama right now.

She needs some positive press.
$3 million in 3 days? No, good press from that.
New Mexico gets in her win column? No matter, it's a virtual tie.
A big endorsement? Unless it's Gore or Edwards it won't hit the news.

So either he needs a major stumble or she needs something big that doesn't smack of desperation.

[RoadRage]

21. Shameless Kick For Votes this morning!

[zonkers]

22. Obama has a player on his team that will give him the edge.....

Uncle Mo, baby!!!!!!

[faithfulcitizen]

23. You should have included "I have no idea!" :)

[RoadRage]

25. I thought about that.. but on GDP.. i think everyone has an "Idea".. it just may not be the right

one everytime. HA! :)

[1awake]

24. Think that

Obama will get the nom, but not without cost. I think that even if it becomes clear sooner rather than later that Obama will win, Hillary will not recognize him as having done so. It will become a political storm about who can manipulate the process to the highest degree. In the end, it will end up hurting the democratic party. And.. this is not meant as a slam on Hillary, since both sides have proven they are willing to sling mud.

[RoadRage]

26. Wow.. who would have thought even 2 weeks ago

That 65% of this board would think that Obama would be the most likely candidate to win? Certainly not me.. i had "hoped" for it.. perhaps even "prayed" for it a bit.. but I really didn't think he had a great shot. GOBAMA!