BREAKING: Most Recent Delegate Count from MSNBC: Obama 838 Clinton 834

[MadBadger]

Just reported on MSNBC>

[Colobo]

GOBAMA!

[mutant80]

24. What about FLA?

[Labors of Hercules]

36. What about it?

Florida: Obama 0
Clinton 0

[kerry-is-my-prez]

57. Florida & Mich. don't count - she would be ahead by more than 100 if they did.

There's going to be some PO'd people in those states (and elsewhere) if Obama wins because those two states don't get a say.

Especially after Florida was already screwed out of having our votes count in 2000.

[RoadRage]

67. If they want the state to count - you RE DO the vote there...

She doesn't just get votes that only HER name was on the ballot for, or HER name was recognized more easily and Obama's wasn't. A lot has changed in the couple of weeks since MI & FL... if you want those votes to count - FINE.. but we re-do it. You don't just get to count them now because you know they would help you.

[D23MIURG23]

75. This Michiganian will be pissed if HRC wins because MI gets a say.

She ran virtually unopposed here, and with public understanding that the vote was a moot point, so it wasn't a fair or meaningful contest. The only thing worse than the pointless impotent un-primary we had in our state would be to have it actually mean something.

[Tellurian]

73. The number is inaccurate...doesn't reflect NM or Super delegates in ND..

sorry, too soon for gloating.. Hillary still about 100 delegates ahead

[polichick]

1. Is that correct??

[MadBadger]

3. MSNBC is runnign with this story as of now.

[polichick]

4. Wow - this is great news! :)

[RiverStone]

72. Really ------GREAT!

:)

GoBama!

[IndieLeft]

20. Yes, It IS correct.

although I posted the same thing and was called a rethug because the story came from MSNBC via politico.

[Colobo]

2. GOBAMA!

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

5. I'm sick to hell of close elections.

2000 GE was so close it dragged on for weeks.

2004 dragged on all night.

The big senate seats in 2006 did the same.

This shit bugs the hell out of me.

That said, a week ago this was supposed to be a "tsunami" for Clinton, and it ended up being slack water. So that's a consolation.

[ursi]

6. It's all over the news!

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

7. Obama must reach the hispanic vote and the poor vote n/t

[Colobo]

8. The Obama haters must be crying.

[Zynx]

10. ? That's hardly a conclusive result compared to the wild predictions of a 20-state Obama

win and a 250 delegate edge.

[snooper2]

16. Nobody predicted that...we said he needed to not lose by more than 100

nice try though

[Zynx]

55. I saw a prediction by Perky and other Obama supporters agreed with him that Obama could

win as many as 20 states including California.

[Colobo]

18. Who predicted such thing? I remember predicting a Hillary win in California!

Most Obama supporters, me included, didn't expect Obama to do so well.

[Zynx]

53. I can name one by name: Perky.

[SKKY]

22. It's funny you mentioned that...

...because I heard that Clinton was leaving the country prior to Super Tuesday because a landslide was coming. The best analysis I read was that if Obama could stay withing 150-200 delegates of HRC after Super Tuesday, he had a real shot. Looks to me like things worked out better than the Obama camp could have hoped for, no?

[sniffa]

51. Quick, has anyone seen my revisionist pen?

Oh wait, I see who has it.

[Zynx]

54. One of Obama's most visible supporters, Perky, predicted exactly what I mentioned.

[sniffa]

69. Was that on MSNBC or CNN?

[Zynx]

70. DU

[Bluebear]

78. Oh yes, the "haters"

:eyes:

[bdamomma]

9. oof, that is close, and it's not over yet.

[sandnsea]

11. Obama winning by every measure

:woohoo:

[jsamuel]

14. only when superdelegates are left out

[sandnsea]

23. That includes the superdelegates

Apparently many of them were planning on pledging based on how their state went. If that trend continues, Obama wins unless Hillary takes OH, TX & PA by a pretty big margin. I don't know why that bothers you. Obama is much more likely to carry on Edwards fight against corruption and for the poor than Clinton. Her record ought to show you that.

[mutant80]

29. that shows you don't know your candidate

He's far right. The foremost economist in the country, Krugman, says that not only do
his health and economic proposals have no credibility, but they are the farthest right
of the 3.
He took several hundred thousand dollars from Nuclear power interests whom he
was supposedly trying to pass legislation against.
They were leaking radioactivity into the public water system.
Obama rewrote the bill to accommodate them against the interests of his district.
This was a front page nyt story last wekk.

[sandnsea]

44. Don't post Krugman - NYT shit to me

I know you don't know me, but take it somewhere else. I live the reality that Krugman studies on paper and that's why he doesn't know shit about it. Common sense should tell you mandates don't work. Vagrancy laws haven't ended homelessness. Your uninsured motorist rider should tell you mandates don't guarantee insurance coverage. I don't know why people take an irrational hatred to Obama, they do it to Kerry too. It's just weird. The story on the nuclear plant was pure fantasy as well. Peddle cut 'n paste talking points to somebody else.

[RoadRage]

68. Ahh yes.. here we go again. Obama - the "Far Right" candidate with the most liberal senate record

in 2007. Geez.. you can barely tell him & George Bush apart.. it's like their twins. Well, as much as Arnold & Danny are "twins".

[VarnettaTuckpocket]

76. Radioactive tap water, love it!

Thanks Barack, I'm worried whether I have enough money for retirement, but if I'm drinking radioactive water, I'll drop dead before retiring. Problem solved!

[Yael]

37. Do you really believe that?

I have been watching for signs from either campaign that they will pick up the battle on poverty.

I am in PA and we never count for anything but a rubber stamp. Maybe this year we will actually be visited by the candidates.

[mutant80]

42. were you alive during the Clinton era?

the standard of living was unprecedented for both middle class and poor

[Yael]

61. I am in my 40s

And sorry -- I don't consider the kickoff of NAFTA and the dotcom bubble "economic bliss".

[sandnsea]

43. His Record Shows Me That

He has a terrific poverty agenda too. The details show me he gets it, promise neighborhoods, newborn home visits, green job corps, indexed living wage. It's excellent. I've got no doubt he will do an enormous amount for the poor. The problem for him is that if he talks too much about poverty, he gets labeled as just another black candidate who only wants to help black people. I've already had people post to me about his plan to help poor white people. I think some people aren't considering all that he has to overcome to run. Way more than Hillary does, and he hasn't compromised his principles, in any way, in the process.

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/poverty/

[Yael]

62. Thank you -- going off to read that now.

[AlinPA]

12. Where did MSNBC get the numbers?

[grantcart]

13. from CNN lol

[ElsewheresDaughter]

15. Still 411 Undeclared Super-Delegates

Without Michigan and Florida
Candidate - Delegates(CNN) - Super delegates - Total

Clinton 706 - 201 - 907
Obama 707 - 110 - 817
Edwards 12 -- 12
Unknown-IA 14 -- 14
Undeclared 0 - 411 - 411

Updated 2/6/2008 Delegates Needed: 2025

[cascadiance]

34. You have to wonder if many of these super delegates will stick with Clinton...

... if the raw pledged delegate count is in Obama's favor.  If
the super delegates CHANGE the outcome of what the party
voters want, I think the party voters will be ROYALLY PISSED
at them, and look to vote many of them out of office,
especially independents who they have to appeal to to get
elected.  They might not want to take that risk, especially
with a lot of their primaries later after this earlier
presidential primary.

I think it's important to look at the raw pledge counts as a
real barometer of who's winning.  If the super delegates want
to be out of step with who the party's voters vote for, it
better be for a pretty damn good reason, or as I said, I think
they might pay for it later this year.

Here's a breakdown of delegates that might help some here from
yesterday:

State:       Total:    Obama:         Hillary:
-----------------------------------------
Alabama       52    20 (56%)  29    21 (42%)  22
Alaska        13     9 (75%)   9     4 (25%)   4  (*)
Arizona       56    21 (42%)  24    26 (51%)  29
Arkansas      35     6 (27%)   9    23 (70%)  25
California   370    23 (42%) 155    42 (52%) 192
Colorado      55    13 (67%)  37     6 (32%)  18
Connecticut   48    26 (51%)  26    22 (47%)  22  (*)
Delaware      15     9 (53%)   9     6 (43%)   6  (*)
Georgia       87    27 (67%)  58    18 (31%)  27
Idaho         18    15 (79%)  15     3 (17%)   3  (*)
Illinois     153    62 (65%)  99    31 (33%)  50
Kansas        32    23 (74%)  23     9 (26%)   9  (*)
Massachusetts 93    37 (41%)  38    54 (56%)  54
Minnesota     72    48 (67%)  48    24 (32%)  24  (*)
Missouri      72    30 (49%)  35    30 (48%)  35
New Jersey   107    37 (44%)  47    50 (54%)  58
New Mexico    26    12 (49%)  13    13 (47%)  13
New York     232    87 (40%)  93   127 (57%) 132
North Dakota  13     8 (61%)   8     5 (37%)   5  (*)
Oklahoma      38    14 (31%)  14    24 (55%)  24  (*)
Tennessee     68    21 (41%)  28    34 (54%)  37
Utah          23    14 (57%)  14     9 (39%)   9  (*)
----------------------------------------------------
                   562       831   581       797

* - Delegates fully committed  

[mutant80]

40. That would make a great poster

I would buy one. Hillary should use it!

[ClayZ]

17. Wooo Hooo!

K and R

[mzmolly]

19. Such an exciting race and an exciting time.

:hi:

[Colobo]

21. Viva Obama!

:hi:

[TexasObserver]

25. Obama is in the lead for good. He should not lose it.

Looking at the upcoming primary elections, he should roll from here on.

[harun]

33. I think you are right. The next contests are his (n/t)

[Deja Q]

26. CBS still has Clintion at 970pts, Obama 904pts.

I'm not holding my breath either way.

I will buy a pickaxe and learn rock climbing as I'd rather do a job... :)

[MadBadger]

35. Those probably include super delegates. Obama should close that too.

[Colobo]

38. It's a real horserace.

[Carrieyazel]

27. CNN and CBS are NOT showing these numbers. Have Hillary up by about 100.

What is the accurate count, including pledged superdelegates??

[demokatgurrl]

28. Isn't BREAKING NEWS supposed to be true? n/t

[MadBadger]

30. They are, try watching MSNBC

[Colobo]

32. Viva Obama!

[underpants]

31. That is 41% of the total delegates

4,049

[rinsd]

39. I think that does not include Superdelegates.

[MadBadger]

41. It doesnt. She will be leading after superdelegates are counted for sure.

[sandnsea]

45. I didn't realize there were that many

Thanks!!

[DURHAM D]

46. MSM leaving out the SDs because it does not fit their narrative...

Who woulda thunk it?

[yellowcanine]

48. Actually the super delegates can change their vote and many probably will.

The SD number is a "squishy" number becauce the SDs are not locked into a candidate. Many will likely switch to the candidate who is clearly coming out on top by convention time. If the SDs were to effectively overrule the rank and file voters there would be blood on the floor and it would jeopardize the party's chances in November. It is not a MSM conspiracy as entertaining as that would be.

[totodeinhere]

58. They leave out SD's because they are not pledged to any one candidate.

Some of the SD's may have expressed a preference for a candidate, but that preference can change.

[nickn777]

77. Correct....

SD's are polled regularly and will change their preference to meet popular demand, should the need arise. The HRC supporters are clinging to the super delegates to make themselves feel better.

[Bullet1987]

47. The number Hnmnf posted is a combination of the delegates won yesterday

and the ones they won before Super Tuesday I believe. They don't include Superdelegates.

[pampango]

52. The competition for elected delegates is more important at this point, IMHO.

Whoever enters the convention with a lead in elected delegates will put a lot of pressure on the SDs to ratify the "will of the people".

Obviously, each SD is different with different loyalties and motivations, but for the SDs to hand to nomination to the one with fewer elected delegates, while perfectly legal, would put the party under fire from supporters of the candidate who "lost" with more elected delegates. If the SDs ratify the "will of the people", the loser could accomodate with the party more easily, since in a democracy if you get fewer votes, you generally lose (though not always - see 2000).

[jzodda]

49. Wow! Its starting to get more probable that neither will get the 2000+ needed

So on to the convention! This is awesome imo :)

We get a protracted discussion over issues that matter into the summer. I think its good for the country.

[cottonseed]

50. Didn't Hillary start with a 150+ delegate lead before even the first primary?

I'm trying to dig that up, but I thought she had a huge lead on pledged super delegates even before things got started.

[Marie26]

56. Help me understand why MSNBC's

numbers are so different from every other news outlet - which still show Clinton w/a lead.

[Renew Deal]

59. This doesn't include superdelegates.

I think that's the difference.

[Marie26]

63. But it does

The CNN number includes both superdelegates & delegates, and their projection is Clinton 812, Obama 720. So if MSNBC is projecting numbers like 838 & 834, they must be including superdelegates as well. It must be that CNN is working off of the poll numbers as they come in, while MSNBC is making a "projection" based on how they expect those numbers to turn out.

[Renew Deal]

64. Yesterday's numbers haven't been fully tabulated

MSNBC is speculating on pledged delegates. With Super Delegates, Hillary will be around 60 delegates ahead.

[Marie26]

66. So..

if she's 60 delegates ahead w/the SD, and those SD are included in the projection, why does it show Obama w/more delegates? (sorry to be annoying, I just can't figure it out)

Here's the CNN site:

Hillary Clinton
Pledged: 619
Superdelegates: 193
Total: 812

Barack Obama
Pledged: 614
Superdelegates: 106
Total: 720

John Edwards
Pledged: 26
Superdelegates: 0
Total: 26


http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D

[Renew Deal]

74. CNN hasn't finished tabulating delegates.

And MSNBC is guessing the final total.

[Tennessee Gal]

60. Those numbers DO NOT include super delegates.

Hillary is still up by about 90.

[Azathoth]

71. *chuckle* Hillary's superdelegate numbers may not hold steady for long n/t

[Bright Eyes]

65. YAY!