Some Post Fat Tuesday Analysis

[JCMach1]

What Hillary must do to win: Until she gets to the March 4 primary, she is basically poaching for delegates. There are a number of states where Obama will do quite well. She must play the expectations game with these primaries and hope for a few breathroughs and delegate draws. Also, she must win the Fat Tuesday spin cycle. March 4 is the key for Hillary she 'should' do well in TX and OH. Even if she runs the table there, it's not game over. Then she must take PA and NC for a sure thing with 1 or two other small state wins.

What Obama must do: It's good he has cash because he must play EVERYWHERE to win. While advertising and campaiging hard in all the state before March (and he must win the lionshare of delegates there), he must also lay the foundation for a breakthrough in TX, or OH. He has to take one of those. If he does that, he likely has the momentum to take him into PA and NC and several of the smaller states.

Open Convention scenario: This was fat tuesday's biggest winner. Let's say Obama keeps doing well in the small states and Hillary takes TX,OH, PA (with a close split of delegates) but loses NC or IN then we are getting very close to not having a decisive winner. If you split it 3-ways, we are getting close to a 40% chance on this scenario.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. She Will Win PN, TX, And OH

She will never win the Tar Heel State...

[ccharles000]

2. I live in NC.

And will vote for hillary.

[ccpup]

3. I thought PA wasn't until April 22nd?

Am I wrong?

[JCMach1]

4. Yes, it's way out... but probably critical