An important congratulation to Senator Obama

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Congratulations for winning the network consortium exit polling of white voters in California. (As reported on CNN earlier. Exit polls don't reflect absentees, so it's probably close to 50-50 overall, but the point remains.)

Beating or tying Clinton among white Democratic voters in a State as immense as California is a big deal, and definitely helps allay some electability arguments. I have been waiting to see Barack crack 40-45% of white primary voters, which he seems to have done across many of the Super Tuesday states. He is looking good.

What makes that California exit poll particularly eye-popping is that Obama dominated the black vote, and edged on the white vote, yet lost California by a healthy margin. This shows the limitations of the black-white frame we continue to impose on things. Clinton dominated among Latino and Asian-American voters. The Asian vote was almost as lop-sided as the African-American vote, and the Asian Dem vote is bigger in California than the AA vote. And, roughly guessing, it sounds like the Dem CA latino vote is about the same size as the Dem CA white vote.

Just saying the world doesn't end with black and white, and ethnic politics go in all sorts of directions.

It is a shame that we read so much on DU about how Hillary cannot win the Presidency because black voters wouldn't vote for Hillary. First, it's probably not true. And secondly, it's a foolish argument because one could say just as easily that Hispanic Clinton voters won't vote for Obama. One can make a persuasive social/statistical argument that black voters are likelier to vote for Clinton than Hispanic voters are to vote for Obama.

And it doesn't have to be negative... Hispanic voters really like Hillary. Black voters really like Barack. Just because one wins doesn't mean the other is despised.

Bottom line, both candidates would have work to do in the general election and there's no reason to analyze anything in terms of who "won't" vote for whom. AA voters would vote for Clinton and Latino voters would vote for Obama... just not in the overwhelming, enthusiastic numbers one would prefer.

For a safe brute-force victory built on massive turn-out (as opposed to a more media-driven "who do you like?" campaign like 1988 or 2000 that can turn on a gaffe or bad photo-op), I think Clinton/Obama would be unbeatable. It would be a brute-force ticket that could trail among registered voters in polling and would still win a landslide among likely voters.

[caligirl]

1. Noting Obama winning red states Hillary cannot win, your on to something here. She got NY and Ca, He

got Iowa Missouri, Ill, Kansas, she Arkansas. Still have the south to deal with. Any ideas out there? Hillary won't do well there, Barack does well with some limits.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. Since either Florida or Ohio essentially guarantees victory the regional math isn't

too compelling... aside from FL, the Dems don't have much need for the south. (If Hillary could win Arkansas, that would be gravy)

The economy should make Ohio blue no matter the candidate.

But Clinton/Obama would be a heck of a ticket.

[caligirl]

6. I'm betting he gets the greater delegates, so Obama /Clinton, O'kay?

[BenDavid]

3. Just tell me how obama can win a damn red state when he

has never opposed a republican in a red state. This is pure bullshit.....Oh I know, how you obama folks think. He is on a 50 state campaign and not just trying to win a state here or a state there.....

Excuse me but if and it is still a BIG ASS IF, he wins the nomination, his ass better concentrate on those blue states first to shore up his support there then go after all those red states he believes he can win....

The easy way would be as HRC will show you is simple....Take the blue states kerry won and gore won and see if there is a state that went red between the 00 and 04 election and back to 96 and 92 and see if one has a could chance to win that state.....Okay lets say that Nevada is in play....lets say that new mexico is in play....lets say that florida is in play. lets say that arkansas is in play...lets say that West virginia is in play..Oh how about Ohio with all its unemployment problems....Win all the blue and add only florida and you have the election...win all the blue states and win florida and lose ohio you still have the election. win two of these smaller states and there you have the presidency . ....
Simple math and there is no damn need for some 50 damn state campaign.....

[alteredstate]

4. Obama can win South Carolina. n/t

[snooper2]

5. You sound like you are getting more and more angry...

You need a light beer or something?