What's more advantageous: having the first convention or the second?

[AngryYoungMan]

I'm genuinely unsure. Democrats usually go first, right?

On the one hand, it means they can set the tone. Clinton and Gore went campaigning right after the convention in a bus; they capitalized on their lead. (Remember in '96 when they rolled up their sleeves and pushed that car out of the mud together?) Dukakis, on the other hand, blew his 12 point lead by going on a fishing vacation right after the convention.

On the other hand, going second means your message is fresher in voters' minds. This will be especially true this year because the chimp will be making his speeches etc. in September.

What do the rest of you think?

[NicoleM]

1. Probably going first, this time.

The R's convention will be followed immediately by the Olympics and then the World Series. It could mean that whatever lame-o "message" they trot out will be quickly forgotten.

[LSparkle]

3. but then people tune out of politics because of those very events ...

with the taste of the Repugs' convention still in their mouths.

[NicoleM]

4. Unless

the convention is marked by big protests and even rioting--which is extremely likely. Then that is what people will take away from the R's convention, not what they say.

[Name removed]

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[Indiana_Dem]

2. I think having the second is better because of the point you made.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. We will have more time after the convention to raise money than Bush.

[tedoll78]

7. Second is definitely better.

Think of the bounce.

Whomever gets the second nomination speech gets the second bounce, and ends-up ahead at the end of their convention. Gore had a nice 10-point bounce and, at the end of the bounce, ended-up tied with Bush going deeper into September.

I suggest an infomercial to blunt the effect of the Bush nomination bounce. This could be serious.

[Lefty48197]

8. We cannot give the Republicans an unchallenged forum

to promote themselves. We have to find a way to keep our message in front of the public, in spite of the heavy media coverage of the Republican convention. There can be no such thing as a vacation for us, or our candidates after our convention. It's got to be "full steam ahead" from that point through the election. We also have to work to keep our message in front of the public TODAY, tomorrow, and the next day, and every day for the rest of our lives (sorry Bogart!) Every day that Bush is portrayed positively in the day's news from now through the election, will work in his favor. You can almost predict the poll results, simply by adding up the number of positive days, vs. negative days from each candidate's perspective.