Suffolk CA Poll: Obama Leads in yet Another Poll: Obama 40, Clinton 39. Poll Includes Absentees

[MadBadger]

19% are Undecided. Here are some of the interesting crosstabs

On the Question of Does Barack Obama have enough experience, those polled said yes 52-35

On the Question of Does Hillary represent the same old politics or change, Change won 51-37

On the Question of Whose endorsement is the most influential, this is how it went down

1. Kennedy 34.3
2. Bill Clinton 22.6
3. Oprah 19.3

On the Question of Has Bill Clinton's Campaigning made you more or less likely to vote for Hillary, 19.4 percent said more likely, 30.2 percent said less likely, and 47.5 percent said there was no difference

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/140-CAStatewideDem%26Ind-Frequencies.pdf

[usregimechange]

1. Yes we can!

[goldcanyonaz]

2. B0ink! It's a tight one.

:woohoo:

[featherman]

3. Gonna be close - And Mark Penn's Big State Super Tuesday

strategy develops another fault line - whoops

The word was that Penn and top staff were going to be fired if Clinton lost NH.

I'm kind of glad he stuck around now so he could screw up Big Enchilada Tuesday. Bring in Bob Shrum!

[MadBadger]

7. Me 2, i hope he stays.

[loveangelc]

4. OMG, and this is before the Shriver endorsement :)!!!!!

[Drunken Irishman]

5. I wonder if Maria Shriver's endorsement will be influential?

[The_Casual_Observer]

6. Suffolk? Where is that?

[BootinUp]

8. Lot of undecideds again.

We'll just have to wait and see, but I still give the edge to Hillary.

I did not see anything in the poll about absentees.

[MadBadger]

10. 20 percent of the people polled said they voted already.

[BootinUp]

11. Where do you see that? nt

[MadBadger]

13. Go to the Second box

S2

[BootinUp]

16. I must be tired. lol.

[Herman Munster]

9. Not enough women in the poll

Even most of the Obama people should be objective enough to realize that 52% women is very low for California.

[BootinUp]

12. interesting point. nt

[featherman]

14. True - estimated to be 57% lower than some previous states though

[NJSecularist]

15. It should be around 53-54%

You're picking at straws, Herman.

[Herman Munster]

17. in a california democratic primary it should be closer to 58%

That's the pattern we've seen in every state so far.

[MadBadger]

19. This could be a results of 25% of people voting are Independents. There may be much more male inpdts

[NJSecularist]

20. 54% in Florida and South Carolina, 51% in Nevada

57% in Iowa and New Hampshire.

It's safe to say that it will be around 54-55% of the total vote.

You're picking at straws.

And even if the woman vote expands to 58%, it doesn't give Hillary the definitive advantage, because Obama has made some big strides in attracting female voters.

[Herman Munster]

25. this is simply not true, please stop making numbers up and lying

Florida was 59% women

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#FLDEM

South Carolina was 61% women

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#SCDEM

Nevada was 59% women

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#NVDEM

Again why are you lying?

[thesubstanceofdreams]

24. For once, you are right

In other states women have been around 60% of the dem voters.

[ShortnFiery]

18. Kick! Go Obama!

:dem:

[exchange77]

21. 700 people asked: 270 for Clinton, 279 for Obama, undecided 132, refused 19

:-)

[TheDoorbellRang]

22. 50% of the sample was over 55 years old

Is that a true representation of Californians? I don't think so.

If the stats are right that show older voters leaning toward Clinton and younger voters leaning Obama, then would it be safe to guess that his margin of victory in California might be even larger than this poll shows?

[loveangelc]

23. hope so