Florida is tempting electorally - Am I nuts to think Kerry has a chance?

[fujiyama]

27 electoral votes in Florida. That's a lot. That would allow Kerry to lose Iowa, Oregon, and New Mexico, pick up just New Hampshire, and still win. I include losing Iowa, Oregon, and New Mexico because Gore won them both by less than 1% (and I saw some polls having New Hampshire going for Kerry by a decent margin and there were many Nader voters).

Is it crazy to think dems have a chance there? Especially after '02, which was sort of a humilating defeat for democrats there.

Ohio is another great state with a lot of possibilities, but less so, because it's 7 Electoral votes less than Florida's.

Edwards' website is a lot of fun, looking at the various ways to win this thing.

[aquart]

1. Yes, it's crazy. Hope for nothing from Florida.

If the Floridians fight for themselves and their vote, maybe we'll be surprised.

But the Bushes are nervous. They'll make damn sure nothing goes wrong in Florida.

[OneBlueSky]

2. of course he has a chance! . . .

and a good one at that . . . a case can be made that he actually won Florida in 2000 . . . if he holds those voters, and if Bush fatigue increases turnout, and if they don't disenfranchise thousands of minority voters, and if he can pick up a percentage of the Nader vote -- all very do-able -- we could indeed take Florida . . . unless they program the machines to cheat, of course . . .

[truthspeaker]

3. Yes, you're nuts, because it will be rigged.

Jeb demonstrated with the FTAA protests that he can control the press and the police are on his side.

[sandnsea]

4. OR & NM - Nader

They both had around 5% Nader voters. And everything I've read says that at least half would have voted for Gore. I don't care what people say, Nader cost Gore the election and also gives the impression that the country is evenly split when it really isn't.

[silver state d]

5. yes baby yes!!!!!

[tedoll78]

6. It'd be much smarter..

for Kerry to first concentrate on these states that Gore barely won:
OR/NM/IA/MN/PA

Then, Kerry should concentrate on these states that Gore lost in 2000:
AZ/NV/OH/WV/NH

And finally, Kerry should fake a campaign in the following states to force Bush into defending them:
LA/MO/TN/FL/KY

I think Florida is a bust because of the 2002 election patterns and because Jeb is still in charge. Ohio is all we really need. I don't think Nader will be that big a factor, especially if we can convince people to not help him with the petitions to get him on each states' ballot. Nader's support will fold like a cheap lawnchair when Election Day comes.

[fujiyama]

8. Your first list...

is dead on. I absolutely agree he MUST win those states -- After thinking about it a little, if Kerry can't carry say Iowa or Oregon, he probably is going to lose anyways. These are states Dukakis won. I know Bush will put a lot of money into NM.

I also think NH and WV are states that should be focused on.

But FL was the closest state and MO was the fourth closest state. I think some resources should be put in both those states (though I definetely wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket as Gore was doing), but then again we did lose the MO senate seat in '02 (God what a disaster that was!).

I like the idea of carrying Arizona and I understand the state has a democratic governor. Why do you place it higher in the likehood of carrying it than say FL or MO though? Gore still lost that state by some 7 pts.

[Bombtrack]

11. After EVERYTHING we only lost Florida by 527 votes

Every other red state you named other than NH is less competative for Kerry than Florida. Every friggin one.

[izzie]

7. It all comes down to putting your mark down on Nov2

Bush's 200 million will not be with you.If you have a job and are paying 3.00 a gal. will.I filled my car yesterday and the man said he just filled a SUV with $66 worth of gas. Remember to keep your home at 60 so you can pay for Bush's oil.

[Kahuna]

9. Florida will go to bush. Forget about it. It's not in play.

:puke:

[Bombtrack]

10. It's crazy to think we don't. The people saying otherwise are paranoid

And insultingly stupid

http://www.tallahassee.com/mld/democrat/news/opinion/8088116.htm
Read this.

[bluedog]

12. Florida is in play

remember bush so called win in fl was 537 votes.......considering the chads.the people turned away from their polls by cops sitting beside the road. some polls moved.....the mix-up in one of our counties by Theresa( le pew0the closet repug)....some radio station telling older folks that the election date was changed..wfla which later said it was a joke.

Gore still won.he won the popular votes over bush total....so don't ever say fl is out of play.......we are working hard to get our bases out here.we go through the neighborhoods and remind people to vote...I myself.prefer absentee.....at least I know I made my mark..

[w4rma]

13. Beware Florida voting irregularities if we pin our hopes on that state. nt

[zulchzulu]

14. I think Florida is in play

It might be close, but I bet a lot of seniors are not happy with Bush at all.

If Kerry can educate them about the repercussions of the Medicare bill that will hit in 2006 and work on how much retirement money the seniors lost during the dot bomb bust, he can get a large chunk out of Florida.

There's a decent amount of military there as well that might go for Kerry because of his background.

It was close in 2000, so I'm guessing that Kerry would have a better advantage than Gore.