With Presidential Final Four in place, speculation moves to the Veepstakes

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
The Line on Running Mates

....THE DEMOCRATS

>> CLINTON

* Evan Bayh: If you look up "vice president" in the dictionary, a picture of Bayh is staring back at you. Bayh has been elected five times to statewide offices (once as secretary of state, twice as governor, twice as senator) in a reddish state in the midwest. He's also handsome and the son of a senator (and one-time presidential hopeful). Is he too milquetoast?

* Wes Clark: Clark was widely seen as a stalking horse for the Clintons in the 2004 presidential race and has remained close to the couple. With Clark, a decorated military veteran on the ticket, it would be difficult for Republicans to paint Democrats as soft of national security and foreign policy.

* John Edwards: The Edwards primary is officially on. Edwards has said he will meet with Obama and Clinton before making an endorsement. His "shake-up the status quo" message would seem to fit better with Obama, but Edwards's strongest constituencies (whites, low-income voters) may be more prone to back Clinton than Obama. Edwards has been the vice presidential nominee once already, but don't rule him out again.

* Bill Richardson: Richardson spent years as part of the Clinton administration and will be looking for his next job as he is term-limited out as New Mexico governor in 2010. Richardson is also Hispanic -- perhaps the key voting bloc in the 2008 general election.

* Ted Strickland: The case for Strickland is simple -- he's the popular governor of Ohio. Done.

* Tom Vilsack: Vilsack, the former governor of Iowa, would have been in a stronger place if Clinton had won the Iowa caucuses. She finished third. Still, Vilsack has an amazing personal story and spent eight years as the governor of a swing state in the Midwest.

>> OBAMA

* Tom Daschle: Daschle, bounced from office in 2004 by Thune, has been intimately involved in selling Obama both inside the Beltway and in the early primary states. Daschle also deserves credit for providing Obama with experienced senior staff, from chief of staff Pete Rouse to senior campaign adviser Steve Hildebrand to communications director Dan Pfeiffer.

* John Edwards: See the write-up above.

* Tim Kaine: One of the first major elected officials to go with Obama, the governor of Virginia is out of a job at the end of 2009 due to term limits. He hails from an emerging purple state, and his missionary work and comfort with talking about faith would be an intriguing addition to the ticket.

* Claire McCaskill: The freshman senator from Missouri has been one of Obama's key surrogates around the country and is trying to deliver the Show Me State to him on Tuesday. Like Talent, geography is the strongest argument in McCaskill's favor.

* Kathleen Sebelius: Perhaps the early leader for Obama's veep pick is Sebelius, now midway through her second term as governor of Kansas. Sebelius's ability to win in strongly Republican Kansas and Obama's personal ties to the Sunflower State make her a fascinating choice.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/02/the_line_on_runningmates.html

[Qutzupalotl]

1. Obama-Biden would be a killer ticket.

Think about Joe's foot-in-mouth the day he launched his campaign...
Plus, they're friends.

Clinton-Clark would be a killer ticket too, and would go a long way towards blunting the anti-Clinton sentiment among lefties (like me). :) Clark makes McCain look like a piker.

[DeepModem Mom]

3. Agreed. I prefer a Veep choice with a name most Americans know. nt

[synesthesia]

4. .

Clinton is picking Evan Bayh. Write it down.

As for Obama, if he were to pick Kathleen, the ticket would be too McGovernish for the people. Too dovish and not tough enough. He might entertain the idea of putting Lugar or Hagel on there for a second to rewrite the Abe Lincoln narrative, but he wouldn't do it for the good of the party.

[DeepModem Mom]

6. Thanks for your wise thoughts, synesthesia -- welcome to DU! nt

[TwilightGardener]

9. Obama won't pick Sebelius, you're right--it just doesn't do anything.

Clinton will go with Clark, I believe, and give Bayh a cabinet spot, if McCain looks like he has an edge because of military experience. Lugar's like 75, and I doubt that Obama would choose Hagel for VP, although he admires both (according to Newsweek this week) and they are pretty much guaranteed a cabinet position under him.

[OmahaBlueDog]

20. Isn't Hagel going to be busy

...as Bloomberg's VP :-)

[TwilightGardener]

23. I don't know that Bloomberg will run. If they were smart, however, they'd

put Hagel at the top of the ticket to go against McCain and Hillary--more electable than Bloomberg as a Christian war hero, more conservative than McCain except for the war/foreign policy, same anti-torture/pro-immigration reform as McCain and Hillary (so that's a wash), more experience in business/banking and being a CEO than either McCain or Hillary. If it's Obama and McCain, Bloomberg definitely won't run, however.

[OmahaBlueDog]

28. It's an interesting thought

However, when you get beyond war support, they don't have a lot in common. Hagel is prety socially conservative. Also, he isn't even wildly popular in Nebraska at this point, so I'm not sure what he'd bring to the party in that respect. He does bring military experience, and it'd be a real coup -- a true anti-war unity ticket.

[TwilightGardener]

29. They've been talking for months, he and Bloomberg--I assume

that Hagel will be VP if Bloomie runs, but they have to see who the nominees are first. They have some stuff in common--both are pro-immigrant, pro-business, fiscal conservatives. The areas they differ are social conservative stuff like gays and abortion, and the biggie: gun control. I think Hagel could swallow everything but the gun control, having observed him as our illustrious Senator for a few years now. He's not popular here in Nebraska because he dared oppose the Chimp, and Nebraska Republicans still revere the Chimp. Plus, I saw some grousing in the paper about Hagel planning to run for Prez--there was a sense that he was getting too big for his britches. Except for Kerrey, we like our Senators like the Benator--quiet, non-descript, making no waves, bringin' home the pork, and not embarrassing us with bold statements on Sunday talk shows.

[TwilightGardener]

2. Don't see where any of the choices for Obama help him if McCain is the R nominee--

I mean, McCaskill? One fucking year in the Senate? How fucking stupid is that, if the main beef against Obama is his inexperience? Sebelius--is she a national security/foreign policy expert, that I'm not aware of? It's the "gotta have a woman" syndrome for both of these picks, apparently. Edwards, nah. He's no different than Obama, experience-wise. Tim Kaine--is HE a national security or foreign policy expert? Daschle might be a good choice, but he's got the taint of loser about him. Why isn't Jack Reed or Biden mentioned?

[DeepModem Mom]

5. I think you're on to something with Biden. He was mentioned here in post #1. nt

[Mz Pip]

12. I agree with your assessment

McCaskill needs to stay in the Senate. We need that seat. Sebelius - too nice. VPs need to be agressive attack dogs.

Lok for someone on the Foreign Relations Committee or the Armed Services Committee to round out the ticket for Obama. I like Biden.

Clinton will pick someone from a Red State - Bayh is a good possiblity.

NOt Clark. I was a Clark supporter in 2004 and was sort of surprised when he endorsed Clinton early on. There is speculation for a VP spot but I don't see it. Maybe another cabinet position.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[synesthesia]

7. edwards

Anyone that thinks Edwards has any shot at VP for either of them, sorry. From a political point of view, he adds nothing to their tickets. Kerry needed him because Kerry was seen as stiff and wooden, and Edwards was 'change' and youth.

Clinton and Obama are 'change' for their gender/race. Americans don't really care for populism, and a lot of them see Edwards as a trial lawyer car salesman, sorry to say. And he was kerry's running mate. Twice in a row, not going to happen.

Clinton won't pick Obama either, there's a lack of trust and I also think Obama would reject being associated with the Clintons. He's a 'new kind of politician' so the narrative says. He's too young to 'stain' himself by association.

Biden won't be Obama's pick either. He's from Delaware and there's the hair plugs and plagiarism things, and he's not too popular nationwide.

[synesthesia]

8. oops

sorry for double post

[featherman]

10. No Senators, please Obama/Clark makes the most sense to me

Yes I know he's a Clinton supporter blah, blah, blah... that's all to the good
Obama needs his security cred
I hope the debate indicated to some on this board that DEM unity is what is coming once this process plays out

[Adelante]

14. Obama will pick a military veteran for VP

It could be General Clark or somebody else. But I feel sure it will be somebody who can capably oversee ending the war, and add national security credentials to the ticket, I agree.

[TwilightGardener]

15. I'm the only one thinking of Jack Reed, apparently. Not a combat veteran, but still a veteran.

[synesthesia]

16. *

Jack Reed is too liberal, might be a veteran, but doesn't look or talk with enough machismo or have a good war story to tell, is too 'entrenched in Washington', etc, etc.

This isn't my opinion on things, but the media already has set stories about things, and Obama is smart enough to anticipate them.

Doesn't fit the type of tale Obama wants to tell.

[TwilightGardener]

19. What type of tale does Obama want to tell?

[synesthesia]

22. *

A post-partisan tale of change is the story he wants to tell.

This is not a criticism. He's been my #1 choice since the beginning. It's a BS tale for the most part, but it's a wonderful tale to carry through a progressive agenda (a liberal Reagan effect).

[TwilightGardener]

25. I think he'll stick with a Dem VP--

would be too tough to make domestic policy work with a Republican. However, he has already said he'll put independent-minded Repubs in his cabinet, so that fits with his "post partisan" theme.

[Cha]

35. And be able to synthesize well

with Obama.

[robbedvoter]

11. Clinton/Clark sounds good to me. As does Clinton/Obama.

Don't care whp the crazies pick

[synesthesia]

13. *

It's really hard to predict what Obama would do. I know everyone thinks he needs his own Cheney gravitas type. But first and foremost, Obama will not want to sully his 'new kind of politics' meme. Therefor, insider the beltway guys like Biden or Richardson or Clinton or whomever, just don't cut it.

Politics of change, politics of hope, etc, etc. Axelrod and Obama are obsessed with writing coherent narratives. Obsessed. It's their entire M.O.

Really Wes Clark is a great choice for Obama. A relatively fresh outside the beltway face, but also a foreign policy gravitas type guy. He seems to be entrenched with the Clintons though. Is this a marriage? I don't know.

Clark is the perfect fit for Obama, but I don't know if he's too loyal to the Clintons or if Obama trusts him.

Jim Webb is 'new', won in a red state, and has that Vietnam thing. But Webb is said to have sexism issues (just what people in the beltway say), and might not have the 'look' Obama is going for. I still think he's the front runner though.

[OmahaBlueDog]

17. I think your Hillary picks are spot on

The only Clinton name you threw out there that I disagree with was Vilsack; I could see him in the administration (Sec. Ag. -- maybe even Sec. Energy with all of the alt. energy. they've been doing in Iowa), but not as Veep. I'd add Jim Webb to the Hillary list. He straddles that bridge between being pro military, but anti war. That said, I think Hill's best bets are a) Obama (party unity), b) Edwards (see "a"), c) Clark (military expertise combined with Southern roots).

The big knock on Obama will be inexperience. He will need to balance that. He'll also need someone to provide some geographical balance. In a pefect world, you'd pick Al Gore ---ehhhhh! Ain't gonna gappen. Your second pick would be Hillary; I don't think she's interested in runner-up, but you don't know until you ask. I think Richardson might be a really good pick for BO. He's hispanic and has executive level experience; I think he'd be great on the stump in SoCal, Texas, Florida, Arizona, etc. Kaine would be the shrewd pick. Evangelicals dislike McCain, and disdain Romney. Unless Huck is McCain's veep (a distinct possibility), I don't see Evangelicals getting too fired up for this one (think 1996). Kaine could actually win some of them over.

[SoxFan]

21. Kaine's not an evangelical, though

Tim Kaine is a "seamless garment" Roman Catholic, which is somewhat unusual for a Virginia politician. I'm not sure how evangelicals would respond to a guy who studied under the Jesuits. On the other hand, the fact that he is very frank about his Christian beliefs might be seen as a refreshing change.

Kaine might actually draw fire from within the party. He has a relatively pro-life record, and there are some absolutists within NOW and NARAL who would threaten to raise a stink. Remember, that happened in 2000 when Evan Bayh made Gore's short list, and Bayh's record was more conventionally pro-choice than Kaine's.

[featherman]

24. It's all about the Electoral College, though

The DEM has to keep our Blue states (New England, Mid Atlantic, Upper Midwest, and Pacific Coast) and add some state like FL, OH, MO, VA, etc. This gives us the majority regardless what happens or doesn't for our candidate in the other purple or red states. VA is trending DEM and Kaine could kick it over. That would be the thinking there.

Edwards failed to carry NC though (which would have won the election) so it's a risky strategy if your Veep can't pull it off

[OmahaBlueDog]

27. Good point

I'd compare Kaine -- in this respect only -- to Sam Brownback.

Sam is a convert to Catholicism, and IIRC, a member of Opus Dei. Nevertheless, he is well liked by people such as James Dobson. I think Kaine would at least make that crowd less hostile to Obama -- and possibly delivering Virginia in the process.

[SoxFan]

31. More thoughts on Kaine

Kaine would certainly help in Virginia.

I think he would also help among socially conservative Catholics. Unlike conservative evangelical protestants, many socially conservative Catholics tend to be fairly liberal on economic issues. I think of many of my relatives, who are basically pro-labor, pro-worker, but who are sometimes squeamish about the Democratic Party's perceived cultural liberalism. A former Catholic missionary with a somewhat pro-life record would help alleviate some of their concerns with either Clinton or Obama.

And please, PLEASE, never mention Kaine and Brownback in the same sentence ever again!!!

[Spider Jerusalem]

18. My take:

I don't see a Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton ticket happening.

John Edwards is better suited to the position of AG in a Democratic administration, where he could direct his skills as a talented and passionate advocate toward addressing, among other things, corporate corruption (an important issue for Edwards, and I think he'd rather be there than VP).

Obama or Clinton will need someone with solid national defense and foreign policy credentials to balance the ticket, because those will be areas of perceived weakness, particularly against McCain.

This means Wes Clark, Joe Biden, or Jim Webb; Webb has some negatives, to be sure, as far as his past record goes, but his military record, service in the Reagan administration, and the chance that he could not only deliver Virginia but make inroads in the more conservative white male vote are pluses that make him a very attractive choice as VP (moreso, probably, than the other two, despite his relative Senatorial inexperience).

[saltpoint]

32. As per your usual, a concise, insightful, and well-written post.

Hello. And thank you.

[Spider Jerusalem]

33. Thanks...

and hello yourself. Good to see you're still here (and, yes, I've been away...heh)

[TexasObserver]

26. Biden, Strickland, Edwards would all be good choices

Stickland could be big in Ohio and the rust belt.

Biden's more Sec of State material.

I want to see John on the Court.

[MonkeyFunk]

30. Obama/Kaine

sounds like an anesthetic.

[KittyWampus]

34. that's funny! this is a great discussion btw. RATE IT UP

[KittyWampus]

36. kick