How Long Is It Going To Take People To Realize

[THUNDER HANDS]

it's not about who wins or loses the Super Tuesday states, but how many delegates they collect?

Obama could lose every single state next week and still only be down by less than 50 delegates.

Clinton could lose every single state and only be down by lesst han 50 delegates.

It's about proportion of victory.

The fact that there are so few states that are going to be blowouts is HUGE to this.

If Hillary or Obama can keep the other below 40%, then they will take enough delegates in a state to do some damage - but based on the polling I've seen, that's very unlikely.

Obama might be able to keep her down below 40% in Illinois, but I doubt Clinton will be able to keep him below 40% in New York - and California is the big wild card, two or three percentage points in difference could net the same number of delegates as a blowout in any of the smaller states like Delaware or Alaska.

This race is going way beyond Super Tuesday. Regardless of who wins the most states.

[polichick]

1. Okay, I'll pin all that to my bra so I won't forget! :)

[tekisui]

2. Yep. I don't think either will be over 875 or 900.

The tally will sit at or near 875 to 848.

Even with the Super delegates added, I don't see either over 1,000. Less than half way from the needed 2,025.

[Cant trust em]

3. California allots delegates proportionately, right?

delegates are important but so is having people see that you won something. Momentum is huge.

[THUNDER HANDS]

4. yes, but

Texas doesn't vote for another month. That will be the make or break state, I think. It has the most delegates up for grabs of any state after Super Tuesday.
Momentum could swing a lot between now and then.