For Democrats, a new electorate: Spike in turnout could benefit both Clinton and Obama

[DeepModem Mom]

Boston Globe: For Democrats, a new electorate
Spike in turnout could benefit both Clinton and Obama
By Scott Helman
Globe Staff / January 30, 2008

They are younger, more diverse, and less rigid in their party loyalty. More of them are women. And they are coming out in droves....The spike in Democratic voter turnout in primaries and caucuses from 2004 to 2008 is staggering - a 90 percent increase in Iowa, 30 percent in New Hampshire, and 83 percent in South Carolina. Florida Democrats were on pace last night to more than double their turnout from four years ago, while Nevada, whose noncompetitive 2004 caucuses drew only 9,000 people, this year saw 118,000 people vote.

A deeper examination of the numbers reveals trends in the early states that bode well for each of the two leading Democrats, Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, as their battle moves to the 22 states that vote next Tuesday. The key will be whether the dominant turnout trends on Super Tuesday favor Clinton, or tip toward Obama....

Obama has benefited from a surge in turnout among younger voters, who have picked him overwhelmingly over his rivals. In Sat urday's primary in South Carolina, voters ages 18 to 29 made up 14 percent of the electorate, compared with 9 percent in 2004, according to exit polls. That means that 43,000 additional 18- to-29-year-olds cast ballots this year. That big increase contributed to Obama's 28-point victory over Clinton Saturday, because those voters picked Obama over her, 67 percent to 23 percent. Obama's strong appeal among younger voters helped him cut into Clinton's advantage among white voters: Though she racked up big margins among older white South Carolinians, Obama beat her among white 18- to 29-year-olds, 52 percent to 27 percent, exit polls show. Getting young people to the polls and maintaining such wide margins will be key for Obama. His challenge is that he cannot possibly devote as many resources to mobilizing young voters in 22 states as he did in the handful of early-voting states.

Obama is also emboldened by his success among independents and Republicans, who have voted in Democratic primaries and caucuses in unprecedented numbers, and among black voters, who propelled him to his huge victory in South Carolina....

Clinton's campaign sees good omens in other trends that have emerged from the early-voting states. One is her success in the Nevada caucuses among Latino voters, who made up 15 percent of caucus-goers. Latinos in that state chose Clinton over Obama 64 percent to 26 percent....(T)he campaigns are courting Hispanics heavily this cycle, believing they will have a significant presence at the ballot boxes in Feb. 5 states such as Arizona, New Mexico, and California. Another thing to watch next Tuesday is how Clinton fares among women, who have made up roughly 6 in 10 Democratic voters in the early-voting states. Her performance among women has mirrored her fate in the primaries and caucuses to date: She beat Obama handily among women in New Hampshire and Nevada, the two states she won, but Obama beat her among women in Iowa and South Carolina, the two states he won....

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/01/30/for_democrats_a_new_electorate?mode=PF