All Obama has to do in FL is exceed expectations

[cali]

Sure she'll beat him big in FL. 10% of Floridians are ex New Yorkers and another large chunk of them are from the Northeast as well. They're mostly democrats, older and white- her best demographic. There are also a fair number of latino voters, another group that favors Hillary.

Obama beat Clinton by 28 points in SC. If he can come within 20 points or so of Clinton in FL- a state she's now doing de facto campaigning in- that will dampen her victory there. In addition, no matter how big her victory in FL, she won't pick up any delegates there.

Today will be a good day for Obama as far as the news cycle goes. It will all be about Teddy and Caroline endorsing him- though the Clintons will certainly try to rain on that parade with some announcement or endorsement of their own, something I certainly don't blame them for. I doubt it will work. And the Kennedy endorsements are not only helpful to Obama, they're damaging to Clinton. They loudly proclaim that she doesn't have the confidence or backing of a family the Clintons have long tried to be associated with.

It'll be an interesting couple of days.

[Bicoastal]

1. Did I miss something? I thought Florida isn't giving our guys delegates...

...and nobody was really campaigning there! So who cares WHAT happens?

[cali]

3. You don't think the MSM will cover it?

They will, and it's all about what the MSM covers and how they do it.

[southern_dem]

11. They will report the vote total but

like Michigan will focus much more on the GOP side since it counts and will probably knock out at least one candidate.

[Lucinda]

2. Link to her actively campaigning in Florida?

[FrenchieCat]

5. here.....she seems pretty active.

Clinton's Florida fund-raiser prompts Obama accusation
By S.V. DÁTE

Palm Beach Post Capital Bureau

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

TALLAHASSEE — As of today, no Democratic presidential candidate has committed to participate in a Jan. 27 debate in Boca Raton, largely because of a pledge to the traditional early primary states not to campaign in Florida.

But that won't stop Hillary Clinton from swooping into Miami Beach that same night for a fund-raiser. Her campaign is planning two events starting at 7 p.m., just two hours before Florida Atlantic University is hoping to stage a nationally televised debate for the Democratic candidates.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/politics/content/state/epaper/2008/01/15/0115clinton.html
--------------------------------

AFSCME Campaigning In Florida For Clinton
January 23, 2008 06:22 PM


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFSCME, the nation's largest public employee and health care workers union, is campaigning on behalf of Sen. Hillary Clinton in the state of Florida, even as the Senator herself has pledged not to do so.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/23/afscme-campaigning-in-flo_n_82955.html
---------------------------------

Clinton to go to Florida on primary night
By Mike Dorning

Clearly anxious to generate more attention for the Florida primary despite Democratic party sanctions stripping the state of its delegates, Hillary Clinton announced today that she would go to Florida on primary night to thank her supporters there.

All the major Democratic candidates promised not to campaign in Florida to avoid a backlash in the crucial party-sanctioned early primaries and caucuses in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Florida violated party rules by moving its primary ahead of Feb. 5.
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/01/clinton_to_go_to_florida_on_pr.html

[MonkeyFunk]

7. a private fundraiser

with no public, no press allowed.

That's not campaigning. It's a fundraiser, just like the one Obama held in Sarasota in November.

[FrenchieCat]

8. Funny...I saw footage of her getting off her airplane...landing into Florida.

Wonder if the press was there? Well, I guess so. I saw the footage on Teevee.

[MonkeyFunk]

15. Much like the picture of Obama?

at this link?

http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20071106/NEWS/711060410


Stop it - you're embarrassing yourself now. Yes, she arrived in Florida. Yes, the press took pictures - she can't stop them!

No, she's not campaigning. She's doing no public events, no press interviews.

[Lucinda]

10. You beat me with your super speedy monkey funk skills!

Yup. Fundraiser. Then a thank you party after the vote and most likely a victory speech.

[Big Blue Marble]

4. Cali, thanks for the excellent assessment.

I am looking forward to the Kennedy's endorsement speeches.

[MonkeyFunk]

6. Cali - you're better than this

to claim Clinton is actively campaigning in Florida is just not true, and you must know it.

[FrenchieCat]

9. Fundraising is campaigning,

SHe's meeting with Florida voters and getting money from them. She got press landing in Florida. What else is campaigning about? Do tell.

Press
Talking to voters
money

Is there something I'm missing?

[Lucinda]

14. They are allowed to do fundraisers. Obama has done fundraisers as well.

[MonkeyFunk]

16. It is not!!

The DNC pledge they took specifically ALLOWS fundraisers, just like the one Obama did in November.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20071106/NEWS/711060410

[cali]

12. I'm sorry, what she's doing in FL is de facto campaigning

but I will change my OP to reflect that she's purportedly not really campaigning. The press is covering her every step there and she was at a bowling alley doing a fundraiser. Her fundraising activities on the eve of the primary in FL, really are nothing but campaigning.

[MonkeyFunk]

17. It is not

and I'm disappointed you're repeating the lie.

The rules of the pledge very specifically allow fundraising.

The only one who can be said to be campaigning is Obama, who has ads running there.

Shame on you.

[FrenchieCat]

18. We know all about the ad, as it was a short story.

[MonkeyFunk]

20. Do you want to respond

to the fact that Obama has committed the same crime you accuse Hillary of?

http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20071106/NEWS/711060410


Or is your hate blinding you so much you can't even weigh facts rationally anymore?

[MonkeyFunk]

31. I see...

you can respond immediately when you want to hurl mindless invective, but when pinned down, things get awfully quiet.

[Lucinda]

19. Obamas ads are campaigning. A fundraiser is a fundraiser. And they were all free to do so.

[hogwyld]

24. I have no horse yet, but this is definitely campaigning

Especially if you consider the timing just before the election. At the very least, she's getting a lot of local press when she's in town, and you know very well that it will be covered on all of the local news channels.

[MonkeyFunk]

28. the pledge

specifically ALLOWS fundraisers, and Obama has held them in Florida, too, and gotten press for doing so:

http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20071106/NEWS/711060410

[hogwyld]

32. IMHO, there's a big difference

between fundraising in November, and fundraising along with the accompanying media attention the day before an election. Peace.

[MonkeyFunk]

34. so one is campaigning

and one isn't?

That's a mighty artificial and arbitrary distinction.

[loveangelc]

13. the media will be covering the Republicans for the most part. They'll mention she won FL

but it wont be a big story like whoever wins FL on the Republican side will be.

[Lucinda]

22. She will be there for a post vote gathering. They will cover it.

Bank on it.

[loveangelc]

23. they'll cover it but the most important story of the night will be the Republican primary.

it's all about the REPUBLICAN primary to most of the media.

[sandnsea]

21. He doesn't have to do anything in Florida

There's no election there and pretending there is one is a sick cynical game that needs to be vigorously denounced.

[FrenchieCat]

25. Yep....

smells like the recycled endorsements!

Hillary will do whatever it takes. She wants it helluv badly! Poor thing! :(

[hogwyld]

26. Not when Hillary wins it

and in a fit of 20/20 hindsight demands that her delegates are seated at the convention.

[loveangelc]

27. Is she over the DNC? Does she decide the rules?

How can she tell the national party what SHE demands? What if they don't go with her demands?

[hogwyld]

33. She'll sick Bill on them. n/t

[sandnsea]

29. She's already pitching fits

and bullying the DNC about MI & FL. Everybody knows these delegates will be seated in August, after we have a clear winner. She wants the delegates now so she can have some basis of claiming to be in the lead. She's not and there's a good chance she won't take a clear lead on Feb 5 either. Her internals must be telling her she's going to need FL & MI or she wouldn't be fighting so hard for them.

[TheUniverse]

30. I dont see how anybody could think that losing by 20 points could be considered a victory.

[cali]

35. did I say victory? why no, of course I didn't. I said that

exceeding expectations will blunt the power of HER victory. Really not that complicated a concept.

[PADemD]

36. What are the expectations for Florida?

Can you recommend any polls?