The dark horse candidate prediction

[PinkTiger]

I'm going out on a limb again, folks. I'm predicting that Dean will not be the nominee, but another of our candidates will be; it will be a "dark horse" candidate, and I am thinking Gephardt.

Ideas???

[liberalnurse]

1. I think that idea is like

whipping a "dead horse". Gephardt is a proven looser and snuggled up to *bush to look good.... delusional thinking on his part.

[plm135]

2. I just dont see any other candidate

who has the passion and fire that Dean does. I think he is a flawed candidate, but ALL of the candidates are flawed to be honest.

I am not fired up about any of the candidates right now, the ones with admirable qualities are unelectable, the ones who could be electable have serious personality or other flaws.

I am somewhat open to Clark but he is just too new to really have any gravitas or ability to compete with the Rove machine.

Dean I like his passion and fire, but his arrogance and stubborness is going to be his undoing.

Kerry has similiar problems without Dean's likeability.

Gephardt just seems to be there, hanging around, but not someone to rally around...he'd make a great vice president.

Lieberman is a Zell Miller Democrat.

Braun, Kucinich, Sharpton will get about as many electoral votes as I will, and I am not planning on running.

Edwards is way too young and inexperienced, he should have followed the Evan Bayh model of running for Governor first and then waiting a space of time, ten years from now Edwards would have made a great candidate.

I am sorry, I want to be excited about one of the candidates, but why is it so hard to have a guy come out, encapsulate democratic values, AND be charismatic AND not be saddled with a major personality issue?

[bearfartinthewoods]

7. FYI Edwards is in his fifties...why do you consider that too young?

[Desertrose]

9. as one in my 50's...I like the idea

of that being too young...
:evilgrin:


I also like Edwards,too.....feels like a real guy.....spoke with him in Phx and ...well he does look younger than 50's.....

Wasn't Kennedy only 43 when he was elected?

Peace
DR

[CivilRightsNow]

16. I gotta admit...

Edwards is growing on me. Im currently favorable of Kucinich.. but that darn picture of Edwards with the kid that a DUer had as their sig line, along with the words he has shared during various debates make me very curious about him.

He could probably take the south, at face value. But I do not know what lies beneath.

[plm135]

18. He is too young because

his experience in politics is brief and unremarkable thus far. Age was not my consideration although 50 is rather young for running for president and you need something else to hang your hat on. We can mock Bush all we want to prior to 2000 but he was a governor of a large state which most people will think more valid than being a one term senator.

As for the rest, beating Fox? well, maybe from our point of view he did, but I doubt if he did from the point of view of independents and liberal republicans, and possibly not even conservative democrats, and some of these people we are going to have to win over to win this election.

My fear is that none of these candidates have what it takes to win. I hope and pray they do, and the eventual winner, whomever they are, will have my full unqualified support and vote.

Still, doesnt change my belief that our most talented politicians are the ones that are younger and not quite ready such as Bayh or Ford or even Edwards.

It just feels to me a lot like it must have felt in 96 to Republicans who had to go out and support Dole. Good guy (from their point of view), solid republican, bad candidate to go up against Clinton.

[KittyWampus]

10. Clark Smacked Down Delay, Fox News Reporter & Handles Matthews Nicely

so why say he couldn't handle Rove's Machine?

And as for gravitas... let's just say that I disagree. :)

[CivilRightsNow]

17. You'd think outta 9, it wouldnt be too much to ask

"I am sorry, I want to be excited about one of the candidates, but why is it so hard to have a guy come out, encapsulate democratic values, AND be charismatic AND not be saddled with a major personality issue?"


:wink:

[nuxvomica]

3. Admittedly, I'm prejudiced (see avatar) but I think you're right

I think Gephardt has a chance of winning Iowa and coming in third in New Hampshire. He may do well in South Carolina as well. If there's no lock by the time of the convention, Gephardt may have a chance at the nomination.
I went to Edwards' site yesterday and played with the electoral map. If the blues and reds stay firm save for Missouri, a "swing state", going blue, the presidency is ours.

[Desertrose]

4. dark horse candidate??

there can be only one!

Dennis Kucinich!!!

Ok I stole that line from Highlander...but it fits!!
:evilgrin:

seriously...I do feel it will be Dennis Kucinich...I have my ways...heh heh heh

Peace
DR

[mikehiggins]

5. I agree with your prediction except

I think it will be Clark at the end of the day.

Obviously I can't back this up with learned dissertations or pounds and pounds of polling data. I only base this on forty+ years of activism in and around the Democratic Party.

I think I know how things work in the real world. As the primaries unfold and things seem less rosy for the frontrunner as they do now the inherent weaknesses in the campaign will come to the fore and we will end up with a decision made at the convention which will end up with Clark as the nominee and probably a woman as VP.

We'll soon see.

[GreenArrow]

6. Kerry

It's hard to consider him a dark horse, but at the moment he is. And when the dust clears, with Wes Clark in tow, he will be the Democratic nominee for president.

[molly]

22. Kerry could and would beat Bush

he's got what it takes!

[rucky]

8. If there's any dark horse, it would be Edwards

clark is too high in the polls to count as one. Gep(hardt) is too stale.

I see a Clark surge after a 2nd place showing in NH. After that, it's a two-man race. The longer Gep, Kerry, Joe & Edwards stay in after that, the more traction Dean's got. Votes are split between Dean & everybody else.

If the other guys really want Dean to lose, they'll drop out & back Clark.

[Malvina Reynolds]

25. I agree with you.

Clark should get the nomination, but Edwards' standing up in interviews, only attacking Bush and having some fairly solid liberal ideas in a lot of ideas would be my idea of a surprise winner.

[Nadienne]

11. One can only hope

...that there are a few surprises coming up...

Thought if Dean does win the nomination, I will support him with fire and gusto...

(Edited to clarify...)

[reachout]

12. I am thinking not

I have yet to find a Democratic Party activist here in his home state who is excited about Gephardt. I don't think that says much for his chances nationally.

[Adjoran]

13. it could happen

It is very easy to look at things now and say it is over. But the December before NH often is wrong about who will win the nomination.

1968 - LBJ looked like a shoo-in
1972 - Muskie was the clear favorite
1976 - nobody had a clue, but Carter was the only one who thought he would win
1984 - Mondale was the clear fave, but lost NH to Hart and had to fight hard to win
1988 - Hart was the frontrunner until he told reporters to "follow me"
1992 - Bill who? Cuomo was the favorite

The only sure thing about politics is that there will be surprises down the road when real people start casting real ballots.

[Bombtrack]

14. repubs want Gephardt to be the Dean alternative, because they are weakest

2 major candidates. Why you ask? They are the 2 middleclass tax raisers

and according to who's language you want to use, one is a tireless champion of labor/boring union hack, the other pugnacious and passionate to his supporters/ unpleasant, abrasive, and unlikable to others

[Malvina Reynolds]

26. Have to agree with you here.

Republicans definitely want Dean.

Gephardt? No disrespect, but ain't no way nohow!

[CMT]

15. plausible

yes, I can see Gep as the dark horse. But he must win Iowa and win it fairly handily to get any kind of real boost.

[Raya]

19. Kerry, if Clark doesn't close the gap in NH. Clark, if he does

[LWolf]

20. Dark Horse?

No brainer. It's Kucinich. I expect you'll see him begin to pull away from the pack and close with the front-runners down the stretch.

This isn't a sprint. They've been campaigning for nearly a year; at least most have. It's rare for a front-runner to go the distance; long races favor the closers.

[plm135]

21. Man, I admire your faith

but the odds of Kucinich winning are about the same as a monkey not only flying out of my butt, but then proceeding to bang out the collected works of shakespeare on my typewriter. ;)

[Amolibri]

23. Time is flying!

Very good, plm...I have to agree about Kucinich. (good guy, but...)

The point about winning the South is well-taken...and that's where I believe Clark comes in. Clearly Dean has the momentum, and proves that he can do the straight talking (and learn to keep his 'issue' in check). I'm afraid that a Dean-Clark ticket is the best chance the Dems have...barring a major Bush 'slide'(or God forbid a MAJOR INCREASE in voter registration among the 18-25 yr.olds) where all bets would be off...
Increasing voter turnout, is, in my opinion, where the opposition should be focusing!

[Desertrose]

24. damn...that will hurt...vaseline might help

when that monkey does his thing.....

not sure about the typewriter...probably do better with a 'puter...

Don't count DK out....

Peace
DR

[LWolf]

28. Snort

Perhaps we should be stocking up on vaseline to send to our DU friends?

:evilgrin:

[genius]

27. Kucinich

Everyone who sees him knows he's the best man for the job.

[PinkTiger]

29. Actually, the purpose of this thread

Was to feel people out about predictions. Not to trash any candidate.
Doesn't anyone feel that Dean will not be the one? It just seems to me he peaked too early; and the more I see him the less I feel that he will be our man.

[okieinpain]

30. if gephardt is the nom then were doomed, bush will sweep all

50 states, and even take some of the dem strongholds too. to put it bluntly gephardt sucks. so does liberman. liberman, gephardt, sharpton, kunich, and braun should drop out. that would help mellow out the remaining field, but doing something for the party is tooooooooooooo much to ask of a dem.

[Virginian]

31. A dark horse candidate? OK, how about

Joe Wilson, Bush's greatest nightmare.

I like all the other candidates, too, and will support the nominee. I just can't decide which one I like the best. My favorite changes every day.

Which ones are for bringing back our off shore technical jobs so I can get back to work?