South Carolina will not be a magic wand for Obama

[dominickdon]

This was particularly evident in Iowa. Obama's victory there and the mandatory "momentum" talk is what made the media get it so wrong on NH.

Obama did not carry his Iowa momentum to New Hampshire.
Huckabee did not carry his Iowa momentum to New Hampshire.
McCain did not carry his New Hampshire momentum to Michigan.

Now we are hearing a new version of Iowa fake-momentum in South Carolina.
South Carolina is important, but ONLY BECAUSE Obama will win that state. Not because it will create a hypothetical domino effect that has not been present so far in these primaries.

For those who argue that Hillary carried her momentum from NH to Michigan, I wouldn't compare those weird "elections" in Michigan to regular primaries. And even if we agreed to call it momentum, it would be the only case so far this year.

So take it one at a time.

[Bicoastal]

1. Noted. And thanks for being fair to all sides. nt

[dominickdon]

3. ...and I forot. Romney is 3rd in SC polls after winning Michigan

Survey USa released today
McCain 27%
Huckabee 26%
Romney 17%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=e65e2ded-926c-4e4a-9697-5a4b32bcc8b8&q=45016

[Joe the Revelator]

2. Obama's Iowa momentum is still helping him.

Every win he gets will continue to help him. If he can put togethers NV and SC wins, you'd be a fool to say he wasn't on his way to the top.

[dominickdon]

4. so momentum went on vacation in NH and came back later? n/t

When you say that momentum "still" is helping him, it sounds like it helped him in the past.

[Tulkas]

8. Hillary was was ahead in N.H. until Iowa

The polls got it wrong, but that does not mean there was no effect. Hillary was only behind in the N.H. polls for 5 or 6 days.

[dominickdon]

5. And so, McCain, Romney and Huckabee are on their way to the top? n/t

[Skip Intro]

6. I don't think Obama winning SC is a given at this point.

[dominickdon]

9. I think it is a given

Black support for Obama is in a point of no return. It's there to stay. And they represent a large chunk, almost half, of SC voting population.

[Tulkas]

7. Edwards 3rd place finish in home state may collapse his support

It is possible that after S.C. the country views this as a two horse race.

That could seriously change the race.