Wow, this whole MI primary debacle really screwed Edwards

[jgraz]

There is no state in the country where Edwards' message would have resonated more than Michigan. He could have easily walked away with a win had he decided to campaign there. Add that momentum to his close polling in Nevada and it's anybody's ballgame.

:grr:

[cali]

1. I don't know that he would have won, but I certainly think

it's possible and undoubtedly he has the right message for MI.

[jgraz]

4. If Edwards had failed in MI, I wonder if that would have prompted a "consolidation"

I think he would have won there but if he hadn't, I think he would have felt some strong pressure to throw his support to Obama.

[northzax]

6. and that might not help much

if you look at Edwards' polling information, it appears that his supporters are more Hillary people than Obama people.

[skipos]

8. I looked at the exit polls and arrived at the exact opposite conclusion

Edwards supporters would go 2/3rd to Obama by my non-expert analysis.
We must be getting our data from different places.

[northzax]

11. Edwards supporters in Iowa and New Hampshire, at least

were from the conservative end of the Democratic spectrum. look at the national tracking polls, when Hillary goes up, Edwards goes down, and vice versa. The cross over voters in New Hampshire appear to be taken directly from Edwards' camp (since polling put Obama about where people expected him and Edwards should have done better) Edwards' supporters are more likely to be economically disenfranchised, older and whiter. Those people are breaking closer to Hillary than Obama. That's my non professional analysis.

[patrice]

2. I've heard that the Un-committeds "belong" to Obama, but it's early still and

the grassroots are just starting to figure out what triangulation means when it comes to their own behavior.

[redqueen]

3. It really screwed the Dem voters in MI. (nt)

[fadedrose]

5. I think that it was done on purpose because of it

Michigan surely would have gone almost 50/50 for Edwards and Obama. The DLC people, my senators, governor, Carville, McAuliffe, the Clintons, the whole DLC knew this and this was a clever plot to stack the deck for HRC. Only my opinion of course, but if it sounds like a duck, walks like a duck, looks like a duck, flies and floats like duck, it's a duck. One thing is wasn't was a kosher primary.

We were royally screwed by people who think they are royal.

[wyldwolf]

9. yeah! yeah! That's it!

The state party in Michigan, in cahoots with the Clintons and sensing an Obama or Edwards win despite all polls showing Clinton with a commanding lead, jumped ahead in the primary process for the purpose of having their delegates stripped so Obama or Edwards would take their names off the ballot and effectively lose a primary they were going to lose anyway.

Sounds reasonable!

[Ganja Ninja]

7. Yeah there's going to be a big fight over Michigan and Florida at

the Democratic convention. The whole thing smells rotten to me.

[tammywammy]

10. I'm not sure he would have won

But he definitely would have been a strong contender there.