With the nominating process moving into more diverse states like Nevada, the Democratic candidates are competing for the Hispanic vote. Why Clinton is ahead.
With Hispanics poised to play a significant role in the looming Nevada caucuses, the Democratic presidential candidates seized every opportunity they could to reach out to them in Tuesday night's debate in Las Vegas. Former Sen. John Edwards reiterated his support for comprehensive immigration reform that would include a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Sen. Hillary Clinton touted her work on education and health care and emphasized that "the agenda for America is the agenda for African-Americans and Hispanics." And Sen. Barack Obama noted that Latino voters had backed him in Illinois and that he'd be a forceful advocate for them in the White House.
The Democrats' competition for Hispanic votes has intensified. Now that the nominating process has moved beyond the mostly white states of Iowa and New Hampshire, candidates are courting more diverse constituencies in places like South Carolina, California and New York. In Nevada, where the caucuses will be held on Jan. 19, the ballooning Latino community makes up 12 percent of the eligible electorate. That could help Democrats move the state, which Pres. George W. Bush carried narrowly in 2004, into their column come November. Given the sometimes caustic rhetoric by Republicans on the illegal-immigration issue, the Latino vote has become more strongly Democratic in the past few years, according to polls. Overall, surveys show Hispanic voters supporting Clinton by wide margins. A just-released Los Angeles Times poll (with an admittedly small Latino sample) showed that California Hispanics supported Clinton over Obama by 61 percent to 19 percent.
Clinton's lead should come as no surprise. She benefits from Hispanics' fondness for her husband and warm recollections of buoyant economic times under his leadership. As New York's junior senator, she has continued to cultivate ties among Latinos and earned their affection in her own right. And now that the nominating contest is in full gear, she's benefiting from what has been widely hailed as a first-rate Hispanic outreach team. "Every event I've attended with a glimmer of a political opportunity, a Clinton representative has been there," says Dr. Carlos Campo of the College of Southern Nevada. "They're tremendously successful in rallying folks."
By contrast, Obama is largely an unknown quantity to many Latinos outside his home state of Illinois. He's hoping to make up for that in Nevada with the help of the large, powerful, and mostly Latino Culinary Workers Union, which endorsed him. Though that doesn't mean all union members will opt for Obama--and some have expressed their dissent--"the unions in Nevada are very disciplined," says Andy Hernandez, a former director of base vote for the Democratic National Committee and a Clinton supporter. One problem, though: the complexity of the caucus process may turn off first-time voters. If Obama performs well among Hispanics in the state, says Hernandez, that could boost his chances with Latinos in subsequent contests. "Latinos may pause to think and say, 'Let's take a look at this guy'," he says.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/94645/output/print
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