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Not claiming fraud, but I want to know why ALL the polls were wrong.

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
tridim Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:48 PM
Original message
Not claiming fraud, but I want to know why ALL the polls were wrong.
Shouldn't the polling firms be required to explain what happened?

I probably wouldn't be asking this question if at least one poll was correct.
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Clintonista2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:48 PM
Response to Original message
1. FIRED UP! READY TO GO!
GoHillary!
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Emillereid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:49 PM
Response to Original message
2. Me too! Makes you wonder - dems can fix elections too.
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fadedrose Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:07 PM
Response to Reply #2
31. How true (nm)
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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:49 PM
Response to Original message
3. 1 poll was correct
but 30 were wrong.
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goodgd_yall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:50 PM
Original message
Which one was that?
In Iowa it was the Des Moines Register's poll that was the accurate one.
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antiimperialist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:49 PM
Response to Original message
4. Most in 2004 were wrong too. Primary polls are inaccurate n/t
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Didereaux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:51 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. notoriously inaccurate to be accurate! LOL
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goodgd_yall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:50 PM
Response to Original message
5. A Hillary surge in the last couple of days?
Just thinking...
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tridim Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:50 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Maybe, polling data would show that.
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goodgd_yall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:54 PM
Response to Reply #7
22. Depends when the polls were done.
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spooky3 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:50 PM
Response to Original message
6. Most of them had huge margins of error.
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Scooter24 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:51 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. Exactly...
some as huge as 10pts.

Polling is NOT an exact-science. Too many variables can swing a poll.
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tridim Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:55 PM
Response to Reply #10
24. Even with a big MOE the average of all the polls should still make a nice bell curve.
These results are statistically lopsided.
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bluedawg12 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:52 PM
Response to Reply #6
13. That's correct.
Polls vary by several SD points and are not absoulute numbers.

Obama is giving a gracious speech- Hilary won this one. Edwards is fighting on. Bring on the repugs!

What a great field of Dems to chose from.
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goldcanyonaz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:51 PM
Response to Original message
9. Fired up and ready to go, for Clinton!
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:52 PM
Response to Original message
11. They were right about the Republicans. I think it was race on our side
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ingac70 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:52 PM
Response to Original message
12. The Hillary camp's own internal polls showed Obama winning...
apparently they didn't have good samples.
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Anouka Donating Member (712 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:54 PM
Response to Reply #12
23. So did New Hampshire lie, or was data thrown out that shouldn't have been?
What happened?
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ingac70 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:06 PM
Response to Reply #23
29. ....
polls are only as accurate as the samples folks take. If the sample isn't as diverse as the state, you are going to get screwed up results.

Kinda like taking polls on here a few months ago and Dennis Kucinich winning them. When comparing DU to the whole of the nation, we are a bad sample!
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:53 PM
Response to Original message
14. I think it's a combination of under-sampling and cell phones.
You should always look for at least 1000 respondents and no more than a 3 per cent margin of error. Also, there are so many people who use cell phones only, they never get questioned in the first place.

I vowed to stop paying attention to the polls right after Iowa. Maybe they should be banned from DU at least until super Tuesday.

:headbang:
rocknation
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Sparkly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:53 PM
Response to Original message
15. Undecideds who decided in the last day or two went for Clinton. nt
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KittyWampus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:09 PM
Response to Reply #15
32. exit polls indicate it was women and those for whom economy prime concern. Men, younger voters
voted for Obama.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:54 PM
Response to Original message
16. I think indies went to McCain more than expected.
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Anouka Donating Member (712 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:55 PM
Response to Reply #16
25. Could be.
Have to see numbers, though. We'll see.
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ben_meyers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:54 PM
Response to Original message
17. Cell phones! n/t
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mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:54 PM
Response to Original message
18. Those rally turn out differences were a figment of your imagination.
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:54 PM
Response to Original message
19. They were weighing them for a larger Indy bump for Obama. All the polls I saw had them close
among registered Dems. And Hillary leading by as much as 3 points in some.
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:54 PM
Response to Original message
20. Because polls are designed for when two white men run against each other n/t
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terryg11 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:54 PM
Response to Original message
21. maybe because they are just polls
and not results of actual voting?
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Yukari Yakumo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:56 PM
Response to Original message
26. Independents also.
They seem to have went and voted Repub (and McCain) than was previously anticipated.
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Citizen Kang Donating Member (424 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:58 PM
Response to Original message
27. The Bushies and the Clintons are working together!
You don't think if it can be rigged in W's favor that it can't be swung in Hillary's favor?

Hell, Bill practically told everyone the Bushies and Clinton's are working together when he said Hillary would send Pappy and Bill on a worldwide tour to "heal" America's image worldwide.


DUH!

I can't believe I fall for this crap every 4 years! Just when I thought our country might actually not be controlled by the puppetmasters, they pull the strings for another Bush/Clinton....
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petersjo02 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 10:58 PM
Response to Original message
28. Margin of error
and large number of undecideds. Polls neglected to mention 17% undecided when they were trumpeting Obama's big lead. Obviously more undecideds broke for Hillary.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:06 PM
Response to Original message
30. My guess...
Perhaps they changed their models after Iowa...oversampled young voters...

Just a guess
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fujiyama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:09 PM
Response to Original message
33. They are garbage
Pay not attention to them or the media.

They both suck.
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Raine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:10 PM
Response to Original message
34. Yeah, how could they be so wrong and
by so much? Obama was supposed to win by double digits and instead he loses! :wtf:
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 11:11 PM
Response to Original message
35. I think soft Obama support didn't show up and the undecideds broke big
for Hillary.
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