Will Nevada stop the momentum?

[Egnever]

It looks as though Hillary will lose both NH and SC if this happens she will be wounded I think but still not out of this thing. Currently She has a huge lead in Nevada and if our governor is any indication she may hold that lead here.

Will it be the state that stops the momentum and renews her campaign?

[PresidentObama]

1. Stop the momentum? No. Assuming Obama wins NH and SC, he's in the driver seat to win.

I think if Barack wins Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina he's in a good position to win the nomination. Clearly.

Hillary's going to win Nevada. We know that. But her best bet is after Nevada, focus on the Feb. 5th states. Try and wedge them your way. If she can score big on the 5th, she's back in the game.

Obviously losing Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina would be horrible for her. But she's still in the game when she wins Nevada and goes into Feb. 5th.

[Bullet1987]

33. Firstly, it's not a given she'll win Nevada

There hasn't been a poll out of there is about a month. Secondly, Clinton is wounded NOW! Thanks to the compressed schedule, why do you think she's going so negative and swinging wildly into the wind hoping to land a punch? If she loses NH, she's as good as done. It's funny, if it were the other way around and Clinton had won Iowa...her supporters would be doing the same thing Obama supporters are. Obama and Clinton were the only ones capable of running the table early. Anyone who gets ran over is not getting the nomination. Period. I know that's hard for some Clinton supporters to admit, but it's the truth. If Hillary loses NH, it's a SERIOUS blow to her candidacy. A blow she is not likely to recover from.

[MadBadger]

2. Well, Nevada is before SC

Also that Culinary Workers endorsement I hear is pretty big there, and if Obama wins NH, i think he just might get it. The biggest thing about Nevada is which poll is right that was taken over a month ago. There is an ARG poll that has her up 27, but a mason dixon poll taken the same time has her up only 8 with Edwards completely out of the picture. A lot has changed since then and Obama and to some extent Edwards should be gaining. The question is, how much does he actually need to gain to overtake her there as well.

[Egnever]

3. Well I wouldn't count too heavily on the Culinary union

They are a huge union but they didn't help Dean at all last time. You are right though it is before SC something I hadn't thought about so a win here would help her but an obama win in SC after would probably negate any help she got from Nevada. Thanks for pointing that out.

[MadBadger]

4. But imagine Obama winning the Culinary Union's endorsement.

That could have an impact. I always thought that Obama would win those three and Hillary would win NV, but I think that was just me trying to be fair. I think he will win all four, especially if that mason-dixon poll is more in line with what is going on in Nevada.

[Egnever]

5. Well I hope you are right

I will tell you this. I am signed up to all the campaigns. Hillary's contacted me early about 6-8 months ago but I haven't heard from them since. Obamas campaign is the only other one I have been contacted by and they dog me weekly in fact there was a volunteer at my door today.

Also when I went to the debate here there was clearly more support for hillary in the room than anyone else but... outside in the parking lot Obama had the biggest presence.

[Renew Deal]

27. Don't feel bad. I was confused about it to.

Everyone is saying that SC is before Nevada. That's not true. I think this is Hillary's chance if she loses NH.

The Nevada primary was Feb. 15, 2004. Kerry had it locked up by then. Dean got 17% and finished ahead of Edwards. Obviously, 2008 will be different. There will still be a race.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/dates/02/14/index.html

[LVZ]

6. self delete - wrong place in thread

[MalloyLiberal]

7. Nevada's Dem chair is Rory Reid, son of Harry Reid

[Thrill]

8. If he wins NH. Its over

Nevada and SC will have huge minority participation. And although she is popular with minorities. Its hard to believe she will be able to beat him there after he's won the first two

[LVZ]

9. Turnout will be much lower here

I think Obama's momentum could propel him to a win here too but only if the turnout is much higher than predicted. Nevada is new (and inexperienced) with a "meaningful" caucus experience. Most political pundits had predicted a meager 30-50,000 participants prior to Iowa. With the major Iowa media focus, however, that is probably a bit low. Even so I still don't expect more than 100,000.

The Culinary Union endorsement (expected immediately after the NH primary) is very important, especially if there is a low turnout.

http://lasvalley.com/702/viewtopic.php?id=1310

http://lasvalley.com/702/viewtopic.php?id=1266

http://gleaner.typepad.com/

http://mysilverstate.com/frontPage.do

http://democrat.meetup.com/7/

[Egnever]

12. The Culinary Union didnt help Dean last time

But there was higher than expected turnout so if you are right and turnout is low it will. I am not sure turnout will be low though there were a ton of people at the temp chair meeting I went to and it was only one of 4 scheduled that weekend.

However someone reminded me above that NV is between NH and SC and if she wins here and loses in SC I think that erases the effect of any win here.

[LVZ]

16. Wasn't the race already over by then, hence no incentive for union push? n/t

[Egnever]

18. you know i dont really remember where the race stood at that point

I do remember the turn out though we had to go to a football field instead of indoors because too many poeple showed.

[bluestateguy]

10. I don't see how Hillary winning such a small state can stop the Obama momentum

Say O. wins NH and SC; then I see Hillary needing to win Nevada to simply stay in the race, never mind reversing the momentum.

[MadBadger]

11. Again, it is an important fact to remember that Nevada is before SC

[Egnever]

13. Yep had I remembered that I likely wouldn't have made the OP

[mrreowwr_kittty]

14. If my experience going up to NV to canvass was any indication.

It may be harder for Clinton than they think. Nevada is caucusing for the first time in a Pres. election. A lot of voters aren't sure how to do it so it will be tricky for all the campaigns to get them out to caucus. However, Obama has a big organization there and is getting voters pledged to caucus. That's very critical and here's why: I knocked on doors in 2 towns on the outskirts of Vegas. While support for Clinton was 3 to one over Obama, barely any of her supporters planned to caucus for her. Every Obama supporter had either committed to caucus or we filled out a pledge card that day. That means that they will be contacted several times before the caucus and the campaign will get them there.

The Obama campaign was up and running there well before any of the other candidates. The same is true here in AZ. Clinton's campaign just opened an office this weekend. Ours has been open since October. We've been canvassing and phone banking non-stop since then. They are 3 months behind us and vote by mail ballots are already going out. The Obama campaign has similar efforts going all over the country, even in places like Utah.

[Egnever]

17. interesting

I will atest to the fact that His campaign has conteacted me over and over and over while hers only did once. He definatley has a stron organization here.

Thanks for posting that.

[LVZ]

20. I was only contacted by the Hillary folks ...

Out on the southwestern fringes of the Las Vegas valley, I have only had front-door contact by Clinton volunteers, one week ago.

[Egnever]

23. Odd that

I am in the Southwest also Rainbow and 215 area

[mrreowwr_kittty]

31. You may have had Obama folks come by when you weren't home.

We don't always leave lit.

[sandnsea]

19. 32 offices in 17 states

He didn't spend all those millions in Iowa.

[jackson_dem]

15. Hillary will have momentum if she finishes a close second on Tuesday

The polling trend, media narrative about Obama being unstoppable, etc. have raised expectations for Obama to a point where a close second would be enough for Hillary to anoint herself as the "comeback gal."

[BringBigDogBack]

22. losing NH

is a bad thing for her, period.

Clinton's shouldn't lose in New Hampshire. They're royalty

[jackson_dem]

26. Bill lost New Hampshire

He was second but did better than expected and declared himself the "Comeback Kid." The rest is history...

[BringBigDogBack]

28. Bill wasn't running against Obama...

now was he? History isn't always the best judge of the present situation.

He's run a near-perfect campaign, his message is resonating, and he's bringing new voters out in droves.

Losing NH IS NOT AN OPTION FOR CLINTON.

[jackson_dem]

29. He was running against heavyweights of the day

He did not wrap up the nomination until the late New York primary. The canonizing of Obama is hilarious. If he loses he will be just another footnote in history like Gary Hart and Jesse Jackson. If he wins it will be different, but the outcome has not been determined when just one of fifty states has voted.

[BringBigDogBack]

30. Over 500.000 donors

speaks pretty loudly

We'll see how it all plays out. I'm not calling anything for anyone yet, just sharing my opinion of what it will mean for Clinton's campaign if she does lose NH.

[jackson_dem]

34. Jesse Jackson registered two million new voters

And he still lost, even though he did take the lead in the delegate count at one point. ;)

[mrreowwr_kittty]

32. No comparison.

Bill was an unknown Arkasas governor at that time. The type of person who makes a "comeback" in a Primary. Hillary Clinton is a mega-celebrity. She cannot ever be an underdog. Coming in 3rd in Iowa was bad news.

[BringBigDogBack]

21. If Obama wins NH,

he wins SC & NV.

[LVZ]

24. Already stated before: NV is "before" SC - n/t

[maximusveritas]

25. I don't think she has a huge lead

The last polls were done in early December.
ARG did show her having a big lead, but they haven't shown they can poll accurately outside of NH.
Mason-Dixon, around the same time, showed Clinton ahead by only 8.

If that's true, the bounce Obama gets from Iowa and NH would be enough to at least turn it into a close contest.