|
my faith in the political process, especially the mass media, is rather worn through. But a big victory for Obama and the Democratic Party would really be a step out of the pile we are stuck in now. BTW, the next concern is that neither Obama (nor HRC, if she gets elected due to dynamics I discuss paranthetically below) turn on the progressive majority of Democrats who elected them, and use their political capital to promote things like NAFTA without its sufficient labor, environmental and human rights protections. Obama seems the most likely to be a strong CANDIDATE, and the kind of president who will push for the kinds of things like environmental and human rights and labor protections, INTERNATIONALLY and nationally, that usually simply get trampled underfoot -- including by "Democrats".
Here's an election logic problem I think needs addressing: When are the pundits going to start confronting the issue of how the primaries being front-loaded favors the previously well-known contender -- the one who was considered the presumptive nominee when the process started -- over ANY possible challenger or upstart, even one that might be at least somewhat well-known before the campaign began?
The way I see it, Obama could very well demonstrate his superior strength AS A CANDIDATE, with voters who are familiar with the candidates and have heard a lot (both + and -) about them -- winning not only Iowa but New Hampshire and South Carolina as well. This is not a far-fetched prediction, and indeed, Obama may be at least an even bet to do just that. (Of course, the results in MI, FL, and NV are another matter).
But then comes Tsunami Tuesday ("TT" I like to call it for short). Here, the inertia of the campaign is given full swing, and even the momentum built up by Obama with three major victories in the heavily campaigned-in states would leave him at a disadvantage in what amounts to essentially a national primary.
Curiously, the circumstances in MI and FL, the two LARGEST states to vote before TT, is such as specifically to PRECLUDE major campaigning on the part of any candidate that doesn't want to outrage the Democratic Party establishment; hence they are more like the TT states than the 'big three' of January. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SEEM TO FAVOR THE CANDIDACY OF HRC, ALMOST INSURMOUNTABLY, AND ALL ARE PREDICTABLE RESULTS OF THE WAY THAT THE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY SET UP THE ELECTIONS.
It's time for the grass-roots and net-roots Democrats to start SERIOUSLY grappling with this issue. If this setup insures an HRC nomination, as it seems clearly to have been intended to do, AND THEN SHE LOSES, I think that progressives will REALLY have to think seriously about completely overhauling the Democratic Party. And no more dancing to the tune of the DLC and their 'why doesn't the Democratic Party dump its pro-choice platform?'(Al From) after the 2004 elections.
|