DMR poll is accurate and shows 5% of republicans...

[mckeown1128]

switching party affiliation to vote for Obama....he gets as much support as rudy does from republicans. (as a side note for those who have been attacking this poll for showing 65% of Caucus goers to be caucusing for the first time...in 2004 the number was 55%...and we can all agree there is more excitement for this election.)


http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/NEWS09/71231044/-1/iowapoll07

[Harper_is_Bush]

1. That's meaningless. Give me a national poll. No way USA will elect a black Prez, just no way. n/t

[bunnies]

4. National polls, at this point, are worthless.

As is any poll after Iowa.

[Harper_is_Bush]

12. Not really. The goal is to get a person into the WH, is it not? n/t

[loveangelc]

6. are you trying to convince yourself....?

[Harper_is_Bush]

11. Of what? n/t

[annie1]

14. what a ridiculous statement. polls say they'll gladly elect him.

[Harper_is_Bush]

20. Excuse me if I don't take your word for it.

n/t

[annie1]

22. here...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

[ellisonz]

23. Says the Canadian!

*boo* hiss

[democracyindanger]

2. Majority of Obama's support from non-Democrats

Hmm.

[FreeState]

3. Yeah sounds like they are trying to through the vote in their favor

for the general IMO.

[mckeown1128]

5. Obama bringing people in droves into the

Democratic Party

Hmm.

[democracyindanger]

8. Yet not able

to base his Iowa caucus support on people who've actually been Democrats.

Hmm.

[mckeown1128]

10. I might be asking for it but....

where do you read that the majority of his support is coming from non Democrats. I took some cold medicine and my math skills are not up to par...how do you figure that most of his support doesn't come from Democrats???

[Skip Intro]

9. While pixies and unicorns sing follow the yellow brick road.

[mckeown1128]

7. Does it even say that the majority of his support is from

non-Democrats...besides starting tomorrow they will be Democrats..}(

[Alcibiades]

13. You don't know that this poll is accurate

No social scientist would ever say that a poll is "accurate" until after the caucuses are over. Before the caucuses, there's no way of knowing. All you can say is that, given the size of this sample, 95% of the time, the poll numbers in the sample will be plus or minus 3.5% compared to the numbers in the population. In other words, Obama could be at 28.5% or 35.5%.

95% of the time. The other 5% of the time, sample error means that the numbers could be way, way off. The one thing we know is that, given the sheer number of polls around elections, 1 out of 20 will be wrong. We know this using the same math that makes sampling work in the first place.

I'd have to say this article was written by a reporter inexperienced at reporting poll results. He writes:

"Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, up from 28 percent in the Register's last poll in late November, while Clinton, a New York senator, held steady at 25 percent and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was virtually unchanged at 24 percent."

He reifies his own poll numbers that are in themselves nothing but the result of a sample. A more accurate description would be to say The race in Iowa is a statistical dead heat." Except I'm sure people are tired of writing that particular story.

Anyway, in a crowded field, it's going to come down to which candidate is the second choice of the most of the supporters of the second-tier candidates. I hope that it's John Edwards.

[Bullet1987]

15. I thought the the DMR poll predicted 60%...not 65%?

Either way, I agree with you.

[hayu_lol]

16. Couple of nights ago, I went to freerepublic and clicked on the keyword...

elections. The general drift was that the Repugs wanted Obama to win. Concensus(dunno if you can really call it that)was that Obama would be the easiest candidate to beat.

You might try to get over there and just sample the various keywords...names of our candidates and see what you find.

Might explain the switch if significant numbers of Repugs appear to switch. They have always had their own arcane way of calculating the odds.

[rodeodance]

19. that is exactly what I am afraid of!!

[mckeown1128]

21. No, I disagree...

I think they are scared of Obama. They haven't been able to nail him like they have with Clinton or Edwards... that is why you see the rush and hannity idiots barely even mentioning that Obama exists. All they have on him is that his name sounds like Osama. (and while that might work on the idiots in the rethug party it probably wont work on independents) (side note: I do not agree with anything they have 'nailed' Clinton or Edwards with...they are both pretty clean)

[Orangepeel]

17. We'll find out tomorrow.

I think the poll overstates the number of independents and first-timers who will participate, but if Obama can bring them out, more power to him. But there's no use arguing about it now. We'll find out soon enough.

[rodeodance]

18. Whats in it for the Repugs IF Obama wins the nomination???

[mckeown1128]

24. competent leadership...progressive policies...an

end to the war in Iraq, need I go on...there are many things in it for republicans by supporting Obama...

Everyone would be progressive Democrats...Obama convinces some new people to listen...