Some changes in my Iowa prediction (This is the final one)

[Colobo]

Winner: Barack Obama
2nd: John Edwards
3rd: Joe Biden
4th: Hillary Clinton

The big news out of Iowa, for instance, will be:
-Obama wins the IA caucuses.
-Clinton comes in 4th.
-Biden picks up steam, comes in surprising 3rd.

[truebrit71]

1. That would be interesting...I still think that Edwards will win it though...

....As long as HRC comes in third or worse I'll be fine...

[medicswife]

2. I really like your predictions!

Biden is picking up steam....I saw articles about his crowd sizes in Time, the Wall Street Journal and some small Iowa papers.

:) That would make my day!!!!!!!! Dang, that would make my January!

[alteredstate]

14. I hope Joe Biden makes the top three!

He's a stellar public servant and a truly likable guy.

[cali]

3. that's just wishful thinking- not logical predicting

I don't see Clinton doing that poorly. She has huge numbers of staff/volunteers on the ground, and the weather is supposed to be good. And Biden is polling at 3%. Sadly.

[Colobo]

4. Biden is getting bigger crowds than what polls suggest.

We might be in for a surprise.

[PatSeg]

9. And according to TIME magazine

the campaign signed up 100 precinct captains in one day.

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1699170,00.html

[youthere]

13. The push polling is ridiculous too..

Who do you support in the caucus?
Joe Biden.
Who do you feel would be a stronger leader for America, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, or John Edwards?
None of them. Joe Biden.
Okay...we'll mark you as undecided.


Seriously.

[MethuenProgressive]

5. I too think one of the "top three" will come in fourth.

The Iowa Earthquake of '08.

[cali]

6. Yes, but is that because you support Richardson or

is somewhat objective analysis. Nothing points to any of the second tier breaking through.

[MethuenProgressive]

8. If it's anyone, it's Biden, not Bill. I just think that Iowans are ready to reject someone.

Someone in the top three, that is. There's no real 'star' and I don't think Iowa wants to vote 'present' and just vote in an MSM poll confirming three way tie. Someboday's gonna come out of this a big loser. Just my impression, no 'objective analysis'at all. Just got a feeling.

[Adelante]

10. That's what I'm sensing, too

One of the top three coming in fourth.

[Jennifer C]

16. I'm sensing that as well. nt

[Renew Deal]

7. How do you figure Biden finishes ahead of Hillary?

Based on what? There's no indication that Biden can get out of the single digits. Hillary will probably be viable everywhere. Biden will probably not be viable anywhere. So I don't see it.

[ThomWV]

18. Maybe because he is the more experienced candidate

Some people do pay attention to that.

[youthere]

11. I would switch the first two around. Edwards will win Iowa...

I HOPE your prediction is right though...I'd love to see Obama and Biden do well.

[KingofNewOrleans]

12. Edwards, Obama, Clinton

Obama very well could have more people come out to caucus for him than any candidate, but they will tend to be clustered in cities and college towns and the caucus formulas won't give him reward for that.

It really does look like Hillary is sliding to #3.

I have Biden 2nd on my list, but I just don't see any way he comes close to 3rd. I think he's better organized than Richardson, so I think he'll hold the advantage in most precincts of being the closest to viability among the 2nd tier. I think there is a fairly strong pull in these caucus precincts, to make a group that is close to viable, viable and that might get Joe close to double digits.

[Cameron27]

15. I think you're right about Edwards

but I'm not sure Obama will overtake Clinton for second yet.

[ThomWV]

17. Reverse Edwards and Obama and I'm right there with you

Could happen.