Final 2004 Iowa Democratic Caucus Polls

[flpoljunkie]

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/how_accurate_were_the_iowa_pol.php

[TwilightZone]

1. They're probably not as inaccurate as it might appear.

There are no undecideds on caucus day, so it looks like most of the undecideds and <15% voters went to Kerry and Edwards. The proportion of the votes isn't far off in many of those polls.

That's the danger in looking at polls as a predictor - very few, if any, of them can predict where the undecideds or the voters caucusing for <15% candidates go.

[Seabiscuit]

2. The pollsters underestimated Edwards then and they're doing the same now.

[1corona4u]

3. I don't think this election will be like any ever before it....

I'm just going to wait for the caucus results.

[jefferson_dem]

4. The Entrance Poll was close to dead on - when you slide DK's support to JE

...as per their deal going in.

I'm betting on more movement and "inside deal-making" this time.

[Stop Cornyn]

5. I think this confirms that any of the top tier could win, but it is no beyond hope for the rest of

the field to expect any delegates coming out of Iowa with even one delegate. The caucus rules are unkind to bottom tier candidates.