Iowa Poll Shock

[emilyg]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/12/24/iowa-poll-says-c

[MadBadger]

1. Quite Sad that CNN is taking this poll seriously.

[Lucinda]

2. Why shouldnt they? ARG usually falls within the MOE of other polls during the comparable time frame

as far as I can see...

[emilyg]

3. Why shouldn't it?

Serious question - not being ugly.

[MadBadger]

5. Every other poll has showed this race within like 4 points

and then this one comes out of nowhere and shows it a 15 point lead for Clinton? You can understand why to me that just doenst seem right. ANd Im not even speaking solely about Obama. I dont believe for a second that Edwards is that far off either. It is the definition of an outlier.

[Andy823]

4. That;s so funny

CNN, the network of "Wolf", the Clintons favorite debate mod, the network that is so obviously "pro" Hillary! :rofl:

As I said over on the post in the general discussion board.

They use the "Mark Penn" polling company!

Polled everyone at the "Hillary" HQ!

And the took turns calling each other!

The sad part was they couldn't get better results polling their own staff! :rofl:

[sniffa]

6. but, isn't it better to post this in god knows how many threads?

[emilyg]

7. If it was posted before

I'm sorry

[TeamJordan23]

9. There are TWO threads about it like 10 threads down from yours. nm

[Lucinda]

18. It's an ARG poll. CNN is just reporting about it.

[whatdoyouthink]

8. Is it April

1st

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

10. Hi emilyg. Since this result has been posted, maybe you can add the CNN article to your OP

for new content.

The numbers have been posted here, but the piece you link to is the first analysis/description of the poll I've read.

[emilyg]

13. Can't find it.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

14. (the one you linked in the OP) Here it is:

December 24, 2007
Iowa poll says Clinton breaking away from the pack

WASHINGTON (CNN) — A stunning new Iowa poll seems to show the New York senator with an apparent double-digit lead over her nearest rival among likely Democratic caucus goers, with voting just over a week away.

Iowa polling is notoriously difficult because of the unpredictable nature of caucus voting. Still, the Clinton campaign is still sure to view these results as an early Christmas gift: she and Barack Obama were neck-and-neck in last week’s American Research Group poll. In the new ARG survey, conducted December 20-23, she leads the Illinois senator by 15 percentage points, 34 to 19 percent. Obama is now in a statistical tie for second place with John Edwards, who has 20 percent of the vote.

Obama seems to have lost ground among male voters: last week, he led the field with 27 percent support, followed by 21 for Clinton and 19 for Edwards. This week, the leaders are Clinton and Edwards, with 28 and 27 percent support among Democratic men. Obama has 16 percent support, and Joe Biden has 11 percent.

As Hillary Clinton appears to be breaking away from the pack, the Republican race may be tightening up: just a few days after Mike Huckabee appeared to lead Mitt Romney by an 11-point margin among likely Republican caucus goers, the two are back in a statistical tie, 23 to 21 percent. John McCain has 17 percent of the vote, Rudy Giuliani has 14 percent — and Ron Paul has 10 percent in the latest poll, up from 4 percent last week.

Huckabee’s loss may also be attributed to male voters. Last week, he had 31 percent support among Republican men; this week, he and Rudy Giuliani are tied at 20 percent. John McCain and Mitt Romney both have the support of 17 percent of the GOP’s likely male caucus goers.

The surveys have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

–CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

[emilyg]

32. Thank you

I obviouly had a brain collapse.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

11. I don't believe this poll and I think CNN simply wants the most right wing Dem candidate to win. nt

[MADem]

12. Howard Dean was predicted to clean everyone's clock in IA around this time last go-round.

If she does win IA, though, she will be in the same position Kerry was in at the same stage in the proceedings....

I don't know IA well, I have no 'sense' of the place.

[AZ Criminal JD]

15. Why is every poll that shows Clinton in the lead an "outlier" on DU

[MadBadger]

16. Polls that show her a mere 4 points up arent. But polls that show ANYBODY leading by 15 points...

those many of us believe are outliers.

[Lucinda]

19. It's showing Hillary up 5 and Obama down 5 from the prior poll, but the MOE is ±4

the spread isn't that large with the MOE figured in...unless i'm missing something...i'm getting tired :)

[loveangelc]

17. I dont support Clinton but

If this poll showed Obama or Edwards 15 points up I wouldn't take it seriously either...until I see 5 or 6 other polls that support this poll I'm not buying it.

[tammywammy]

20. Agreed

Any one poll that moves that much is suspect, until more polls confirming that come in.

[1corona4u]

31. All polls are suspect.

people on this board seem to live by them. Unless it doesn't support their candidate...then they are wrong.

If it is accurate, at all, it means that people are just now getting serious about their choices. I expect a lot of shifting in who people will be supporting over the next week....

[SoxFan]

21. A sketchy Republican firm

This firm does work for Charlie Bass, the former congressman who got his clock cleaned by US Rep. Paul Hodes, Obama's national co-chair. He has an axe to grind with the Obama people in NH, where he is located.

In addition, a lot of people in the NH political community think ARG is a fraud that doesn't actually do any calling. It's run out of a two room suite, and nobody has ever been told of the location of his boiler room. Worse, nobody has ever received a call, something that can't be said about other local pollsters such as UNH, Suffolk, RKM, and Franklin Pierce.

[ClarkUSA]

22. Thanks for the NH scoop on this firm.

Too bad, I was hoping Hillary would be called the frontrunner, since Iowans have a tendency not to vote for them.
We'll see what the next few polls say... ;-)

[Perry Logan]

23. This is the cue for Obamites to cook up some fresh slime.

[BootinUp]

24. lol nt

[surfermaw]

25. CNN is no better than FOX Fiction

Wolf Blitzer has been from day one trying his darn best to elect Obama and Hillary.... He wouldn't mention Edwards name unless he could use it to Bash him, I think they have gone off their rockers, now the repu blicans in the south are jumping for joy thinking Obama is goin to be the candidate, and they know they can beat him... they are afraid of Edwards and Hilla. Once again we are going to let the republicans pick our candidate

[kad7777]

26. GO JOE!!!

Slowly but surely, step by step, inch by inch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtGCaqOdIJ4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUC8LeZ1hM4

[zanne]

27. Two polls on the same day. CNN sees the world differently....

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/12/23/mccain_closing_gap_with_romney/?page=full

On the same day that the Boston Globe reported Obama ahead in NH, CNN had a poll saying she was more than 20 points ahead of Obama. You choose.

[Yael]

28. I thought for a second this was about Dean

Oh wait...

[Hippo_Tron]

29. Good, when Obama wins the Iowa Caucus it will be unexpected

[antiimperialist]

30. Too many threads about the same poll

One should be left standing. the rest should be deleted.

[jenmito]

33. As post #27 points out,

"On the Democratic side, the poll confirmed Obama's steady rise in New Hampshire in recent weeks, which has turned what had been a strong state for Clinton into a battleground. Aside from a CNN/WMUR poll conducted by UNH last week, which had Clinton with a 12-point edge, surveys have generally shown Obama closing in."

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/12/23/mccain_closing_gap_with_romney/?page=full

[On the Road]

34. Going Into Iowa with a Perceived 15-Point Lead in the Polls

is the WORST thing for the Clinton campaign. It's all about expectations. If she wins by a "lower than expected" margin, there is no gain and possibly a loss in momentum.