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Back in November, all declared candidates had to decide whether to accept federal matching funds for their campaign. If they take it, they receive matching funds for the first $250.00 of every person who donates:
Example: Candidate A gets one donation for $2,000.00. Candidate A will receive $250.00 to match that donation. Candidate B gets $250.00 donations from eight people. Candidate B will receive eight matching contributions totaling $2,000.00 Candidate C gets $500.00 donations from four people. Candidate C will receive four matching contributions totaling $1,000.00
After the conventions, the candidates will decide if they will take a lump sum of $77,000,000.00 for the GE. Both candidates will probably take it because it will be impossible to raise that much in the two months before the GE. They will also be able to get $18,500,000.00 from their party, but that turns out to be a push.
But the devil is in the details. If a candidate takes matching contributions for the primary, he or she will be held to a strict cap of $45,000,000.00. On top of that, the maximum matching amount is capped at $18,500,000.00, or 75,000 $250.00 donations.
This is going to translate to a $100,000,000.00 gap between Bush and any candidate who won the nomination and took the matching funds. Even if said candidate scimped and saved and saved as much on expenses as they can, they will still be looking at a $100,000,000.00 gap between him/her and Bush.
Since Bush did not take matching funds, he will be able to spend every penny of his estimated $200,000,000.00 before the GOP convention. And to those who say that he wouldn't dare attack a certain candidate on national security, two words: Max Cleland.
Now, on to the 527 orgs. Yes, there will be lots of money used to work Bush over. But the door swings both ways, so there will easily be equal money to bash whoever the candidate will be. That will give the advantage to Bush, because he will be free to spend his money to defend himself against 527's and work his base and present a positive face. Someone capped at the maximum won't be able to do that.
I want to be clear about the cap. Once it's hit, the candidate will have to stay home. He/she won't be able to buy a plane ticket, a hotel room, a happy meal, a pen, anything that can be used in the campaign. He/she won't be able to accept gifts such as plane tickets, hotel rooms, happy meals, pens, anything that can be used in the campaign. Hopefully, they will have the foresight to pay rent and other forseeable expenses beforehand.
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