Ok for all of you polling wonks. Here's the average daily Polling Data for Iowa

[Perky]

Here is the methodology
Assumed that the polling data in any given polling period was a snapshot of any day within the polling period.
Trued up the polling data to be 600 sample size for every day
WHen two or more polls overlapper...I took the average.

So basically if 600 people were polled everyday for the last 20 days this is what the trend looks like numerically

1-Dec 2-Dec 3-Dec 4-Dec 5-Dec 6-Dec 7-Dec 8-Dec 9-Dec 10-Dec 11-Dec 12-Dec 13-Dec 14-Dec 15-Dec 16-Dec 17-Dec
Obama 192 192 150 150 180 180 180 180 180 179 180 180 198 198 198 180 180
Clinton 150 150 162 162 168 168 168 156 156 158 153 153 159 174 174 159 159
Edwards 150 150 126 126 117 117 117 138 138 138 138 138 132 120 120 138 138
Ric'son 18 18 54 54 54 54 54 36 36 42 51 51 51 48 48 24 24
Biden 30 30 30 30 27 27 27 27 27 26 24 24 21 24 24 12 12
Other 60 60 78 78 54 54 54 63 63 59 54 54 39 36 36 87 87
R-B-O 108 108 162 162 135 135 135 126 126 126 129 129 111 108 108 123 123

Obama 0.320 0.320 0.250 0.250 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.298 0.300 0.300 0.330 0.330 0.330 0.300 0.300
Clinton 0.250 0.250 0.270 0.270 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.260 0.260 0.263 0.255 0.255 0.265 0.290 0.290 0.265 0.265
Edwards 0.250 0.250 0.210 0.210 0.195 0.195 0.195 0.230 0.230 0.230 0.230 0.230 0.220 0.200 0.200 0.230 0.230
Other 0.180 0.180 0.270 0.270 0.225 0.225 0.225 0.210 0.210 0.210 0.215 0.215 0.185 0.180 0.180 0.205 0.205

Obama has led consistently since 12/5 by about 4% probably about the edge of the MOE
Clinton has been second
Edwards a strong third
Richardson and Biden are both sliding a bit and the othere/undecided are about 20%

Looks to me like no one is switching sides, so the undecideds/others are what is going to win this thing.

My guess is that they will break 50% for Obama, 35% for Edwards and 15% for Clinton

[SaveElmer]

1. Looks like the Matrix...nt

[Dawgs]

2. good guess. i hope you're right.

[canoeist52]

3. polling

I was watching Mike Dukakis the other day- I think on PBS or C-span. He basically said the polls are b.s. before the primaries. Said they we're more reliable after. I think if elections can be stolen, then surely polls can be.

[comradebillyboy]

4. What is the basis for your conclusion

on the final split for the undecideds? I would not expect nearly so large a spread since I think Richardson, Dodd and Biden people are more likely to have Clinton as their second choice.

[Perky]

5. Caucuses are pretty big Adrenalin rushes.

Any one who does not get to 15% of those attending at a particular caucuse are viewed as unviable at that site. If your guy is belo the trheshold you either get to choose someone else or go home.

Ya gotta gigure 90% or more or going to pick someone else.

Here's the thing. the Preinct captains hold some sway but there may not be a precinct captain in some preinct so everyone is a free agent.

Generically, late deciders break heavily for the non-incumbent. I think that translates in this instance to the new kid on the block. That means they break mor heavily for Obam and Edwards then Hillary. The second thing is... that there are more people who oppose the notion of Hillary than support her. Third, People want to be seen as backing a winner. I think the perception that he is the front-runner does not hurt him as much as the perception that Hillary is the "incumbent" hurts her.

On all those bases. I think Obama and Edwards get the lion share. And I think Obama get more largely because, he is perceived as being the future of the party and charismatic and intelligent and likeable and all those things that make him a rock star.

Caucus rooms are adrenalin rushes and people in Iowa instinctively understand that they make history. My guess is that the break for Obama because they want to insure if for no other reason that the battle continues to New Hampshire.

At some levels it is just a gut level sentiment... but it is backed up by election results over the last 30 years. Late-decision makers break for the new as opposed to the old.

[MGKrebs]

6. I did a chart,

based on this data.

edit: OK, let's try this link:



Looks like crap. Sorry. Software impaired I guess.

[Perky]

8. I appreciate it

Looks like you migh have a "zero" in the last bit of the undecided row though.

WHat is intersting to me in seeing it thois way is how much Clinton and Edwards mirror eachother on the trendline. Whenever Edwards goe up Clinton goes down and vice-versa

It is not much of a swing but it looks like they are tradin about 2 or 3% back and forth.

[Caseman]

7. Facinating...

...so when did the Iowans obtain the technology to read people's minds? :o

[Perky]

9. Its not mind reading at all

It's emprical data usine verbal questions and verbal responses. It is usinf a scientic sample.

Just becasue you don't like the result does not mean the science is bad.

[maximusveritas]

10. Good work

I'm worried about the advantage Edwards has in rural areas. Hopefully Obama can overcome that.

[Capn Sunshine]

11. Very similar numbers from the polling inside everyone's organization.

I assume the other campaigns are seeing the same trends.