2004 Pre-Iowa-Caucus polling: Kerry 26%, Edwards 23%, Dean 20%, Gephardt 18%. The order was CORRECT

[Stop Cornyn]

despite the fact that there was a shift in the numbers. The actual results were Kerry 38%, Edwards 32%, Dean 18%, Gephardt 11%.

There has been some discussion here recently comparing the NATIONAL polls before the 2004 Iowa caucus and the results in the Iowa caucus. It is true that the NATIONAL polls are entirely useless as a tool to predict the Iowa caucus result.

But it is worth remembering the IOWA polling was a much better (but still imperfect) predictor of the Iowa caucus:

A Des Moines Register poll released the day before the caucuses showed Kerry narrowly in front at 26 percent of likely caucus participants, Edwards right behind at 23 percent, followed by Dean at 20 percent and Gephardt at 18 percent.

[antiimperialist]

1. Yes, but was that the only poll released the week before the elections?

Perhaps others were more inaccurate. Not that this was very accurate either.

[Stop Cornyn]

2. Zogby's pre-caucus poll had Kerry 25%, Dean 22%, Edwards 21%, Gephardt 18%. No one went from the

bottom tier to finish in the top tier:

[FlyingSquirrel]

3. Easy to predict the day before... but look what happened 2 weeks before

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3854345&mesg_id=3854414

2 weeks before the Iowa caucuses, a KCCI TV poll had Dean at 29%, Gephardt 25%, Kerry 18%, Edwards 8% with a +/- 5% margin of error. Actual results were Kerry 38%, Edwards 32%, Dean 18%, Gephardt 11%.

Best Iowa poll we have to date (Rasmussen, Dec. 12) approx. 3 weeks to go till Iowa, shows Clinton 29%, Obama 26%, Edwards 22%. Statistical 3-way tie.

[Yukari Yakumo]

6. A point and a question

The '08 poll is pre-DMR.

Is the '04 poll you point out before or after Edwards got the DMR nod?

[Stop Cornyn]

7. The 2004 poll mentioned in the OP as well as the Zogby poll in reply #2 were after the endorsement

by the DMR.

[greenvpi]

4. Nice!

Let's hope this continues. Of course Kerry isn't the best Democrat, but he is the most electible of the choices we have.

[FlyingSquirrel]

5. Scooby Doo "HRuh???"

[Zynx]

8. It's obviously some kind of satire.

[rinsd]

9. Key words being poll released day before caucus.

And the shift in percentages is tremendous far beyond the MOE.

Its almost a fluke that they got the order right.