Illinois Poll - 12/9-13 - Obama 50%; Clinton 25%; Edwards 7%

[Adelante]

Illinois polls have been rare as far as I've seen. Illinois is a Feb 5, Super Tuesday primary state.

Favorite son Barack Obama holds a 2-1 advantage over native daughter Hillary Clinton among Democrats looking to cast ballots in Illinois' Feb. 5 presidential primary, but voters are split between the two when asked who has the best chance of winning the White House, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.

-snip

Among the 500 likely Democratic voters surveyed Dec. 9 to 13, Obama, a first-term U.S. senator from Illinois, was the choice of 50 percent; Clinton, a senator from New York who was born in Chicago and raised in Park Ridge, followed with 25 percent.

Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina was a distant third with 7 percent support in the poll, while New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, U.S. Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware and U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio each had 2 percent. U.S. Sen. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut had less than 1 percent while another 11 percent of those surveyed were undecided.

-snip

Obama, seeking to become the first African-American to win the party nomination and presidency, receives his strongest support among black voters: 70 percent for the Illinois senator compared with 17 percent for Clinton. Among white voters, Obama has a 42 percent to 29 percent advantage over Clinton.

Clinton closes gap with women
But the poll found support for Obama compared to Clinton narrows considerably among white women, where he leads 41 percent to 34 percent. The two were virtually even among white voters in the suburban collar counties and Downstate.

When Democratic voters were asked which candidate is more knowledgeable and has a better grasp on the issues, 37 percent said Clinton and 33 percent said Obama, at best a narrow advantage for Clinton given her effort to portray herself as the more experienced candidate. When voters were asked which candidate would be a better agent for change in Washington, Obama was ranked significantly ahead of Clinton, 50 percent to 24 percent.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/chi-poll-bd16dec16,1,3367735.story

[Bullet1987]

1. Not that surprising...

[maximusveritas]

12. Clinton had been close to him until this recent poll

It's not surprising given that he's moving up all over the country now that more people think he has a shot.

[terrya]

2. Obama is going to win the Illinois primary handily.

This really isn't a big surprise. Obama 1st, Hillary Clinton 2nd.

[Radical Activist]

3. Anyway see any Arkansas polls?

I'm sure Clinton is ahead but it wouldn't surprise me to see black voters switching over to Obama at the last minute. I don't think Clinton will win Arkansas by a wide margin.

[ElizabethDC]

6. Most recent Arkansas poll is from August

Clinton-43 Obama-24 Edwards-11, and the rest received less than 5% each.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/2007/08/12-week/

[Radical Activist]

8. Less than 50%

can't be too encouraging for Clinton.

[JackORoses]

4. awww, Hillary's Home State rejects her

[terrya]

7. No....

Yes, she was born in Illinois. But she's spent most of her life in Arkansas.

And Obama is very popular here. Against Obama's popularity, she really doesn't stand a chance in the Illinois primary.

[JackORoses]

13. if Arkansas is her home, why is she a Senator in New York?

[cali]

15. gee, you really need help with that? OK, I'll fill you in.

She moved to NY, ran for Senate there and was elected. It's actually that simple.

[JackORoses]

17. She did this because she would not have been elected in Arkansas. Pretty sleazy.

Way to abandon your so called home, Hill.

But this was necessary in her drive to the Presidency.

[cali]

18. Probably. So what does that prove? It proves she's ambitious.

Wow. Who could possibly imagine an ambitious politician running for president? Shocking. Should I break out the smelling salts for you?

[terrya]

23. Just like Robert Kennedy did in the 60's.

RFK wasn't from New York state when he won election to the United States Senate from New York. It's not like no one else has done this.

[JackORoses]

28. "It's not like no one else has done this" This seems to be Hillary's motto

[gmudem]

16. Because New York is a big state

And if you're somebody with no political experience, you might as well pretend to represent one of the biggest states in the country before you run for president in 8 years.

Of course her record was not liberal at all for a very liberal state, and that's even more pathetic considering she had essentially no opposition in 2006.

[jillan]

5. This reminds me - I have heard it said several times that Edwards will not win SC

Anyone have the stats on that? Guess it's going to Obama.

[MadBadger]

10. According to the RCP average, Hillary is up 2.2 points

though if Obama can win Iowa, that could easily change. Recent polls have shown her up and him up. I believe he Edwards is also losing in NC.

[Adelante]

11. Edwards is 14.4% RCP average in SC

The polls are listed here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_primary-234.html

[seasat]

9. Obama and Richardson are the only two who Clinton doesn't beat in their home state.

This may change more as more recent polls come out but as of right now but my top choice and possibly my second choice are the only Democrats that beat Clinton in their home state. I think it says something about your chances when the folks that should know you the best support you.

[Adelante]

14. The message segment is interesting

"Experience" splits fairly equally, while "Change" just about matches the base vote.

When Democratic voters were asked which candidate is more knowledgeable and has a better grasp on the issues, 37 percent said Clinton and 33 percent said Obama, at best a narrow advantage for Clinton given her effort to portray herself as the more experienced candidate. When voters were asked which candidate would be a better agent for change in Washington, Obama was ranked significantly ahead of Clinton, 50 percent to 24 percent.

[BenDavid]

19. DUH! that is the only state obama will carry 2/5/08

[calteacherguy]

21. You don't seriously believe that, do you? nt

[BenDavid]

31. Take a look at all the states voting on the 5th and tell me

what other he has a chance. I have said by the middle of february hrc will have the majority of delegates to become the nominee.

[calteacherguy]

33. I think there is a good chance Obama will take California.

Heck, there's a chance he could take them all! :-)

[Bitwit1234]

20. I bet to equal it out.

New York would have Clinton had 80% and Obama 20%...what do you expect Obama to get in his home state...just another chance to make people think he is SOMETHING.

[MadBadger]

22. He'll be more than you will ever be.

[itsrobert]

24. Looks like Hillary's home state is rejecting her

Not surprising that the people who know her best, do not like what they see.

[terrya]

25. They're not "rejecting" her

Barack Obama is hugely popular here. There is NO way Hillary Clinton can win Illinois with Obama running. If Obama wasn't on the ballot, Hillary Clinton would win. Period.

[MethuenProgressive]

26. Does this poll count all the Illinois students who will caucus in Iowa?

?

[itsrobert]

27. Wow, are you saying Hillary's home state is so not for her

that they have organized to travel to Iowa to participate in the caucus?

That's an eyeopener, right there.

[Critters2]

34. No. A lot of Illinoisans attend the University of Iowa

It has several good grad programs and an excellent med school. And it's only about an hour from Illinois. So, lots of students from Illinois, who will be caucusing because they've been there long enough to qualify. Some of the candidates are not happy about this.

Three guesses as to whom...and I doubt you'll need the first two.

[Adelante]

29. The Iowan student residents of Illinois who have the right to vote in Illinois

may be counted.

[Radical Activist]

30. If you mean ones who live in Iowa 9 months out of the year

then I hope they vote in Iowa. That's their legal right after all.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

32. Why do you have a problem with people voting legally, per a SCOTUS decision?

Disenfranchisement and voter suppression is a GOP tactic. It's not very seemly coming from a fellow Dem.

BTW, Obama is not the only candidate for whom out-of-state students in Iowa are caucusing.

[Capn Sunshine]

35. why are you so intent on disenfranchising the youth?

It's bad politics, it's impolitic, and it's completely exemplary of the crap they are handing down to you dolts at ground level.

It's one of the myriad reasons you guys lost Iowa.