Goldman Sachs - 8 states housing to fall 30%, $108 Billion unreported losses

[BR_Parkway]

Goldman Sachs Conference Call: Mortgage Fall Out Has More To Go

We believe ... the industry will suffer $148 Billion total losses related to CDOs, to date we've accounted for roughly about $40 billion of those, so we're estimating another $108 billion in writedowns over the next several quarters.
Goldman Sachs, Nov 19, 2007

Most of this call is company specific (like Citi), however the bearish comments on the credit crunch, housing and states currently in or near recession are worth noting.

House prices have 13% to 14% to fall from current level.
Goldman Sachs, Nov 19, 2007

GS Conference Call
US Financial Services: Mortgage Fall Out Has More To Go
Monday, November 19th, 2007
11:00am EDT

Hosted by:
Lori Appelbaum and others
Replay: 800-332-6854 (Domestic)
973-528-0005 (Int'l)
Replay Code: 707854

UPDATE:

Eight states ... for which there is greater than 30% house price depreciation forecast would be California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Virginia, New Jersey, Maryland, and Washington D.C. ... 13% to 14% nationally masks some states that we have accute concerns.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/11/gs-conference-call-mortgage-fall-out.html
Goldman Sachs, Nov 19, 2007

[Joanne98]

1. That CC was November 19th. It's gotten worse since then!

[Zynx]

3. Not demonstrably so. They forecast the short term developments since

then.

[rasputin1952]

2. I have said for years the Housing Market was askew...

now, when the real #'s start coming out, it will sink the whole "great economy" myth that bush has been so fond of speaking about.

Rampant short term speculation destroys an economy every time. Did anyone figure out this is the tip of the iceberg...there will not be a sufficient population to keep the housing market afloat in 10 years anyway. Once the Boomers were brought onto the scene, adding millions of potential homeowners, the drop is fast and precarious.

Who is going to around to buy all of the houses?

The job market will benefit though, as wages should increase as we Boomers decrease the pool of workers. At least GenX has something to look forward to, higher wages, lower housing costs...:woohoo:

We left something for them after all!...:D