Political analyst gives Hillary 85% chance of winning nomination. 60% chance of winning presidency

[antiimperialist]

This is coming from Charlie Cook from the nonpartisan Cook political report Of course, this is only one opinion of one analyst, but I thought you would find it interesting and worth analyzing.
I would have to agree on the former, not the latter estimate.

What do you think?

http://cookpolitical.com/

[Changenow]

1. Why hold an election?

It is all decided.

[babylonsister]

2. I'll believe it when I see it. Til then, I don't believe it. nt

[Colobo]

3. I'd say she has a 75% chance of winning the nomination.

I said 80% last week, but after recent developments, I see her chances going down slightly.

[antiimperialist]

4. That's ridiculous. Why 75%?

All things considered I would say she has a 77.3% chance.

[Cha]

6. I say

50%.

[zulchzulu]

5. Making those kind of predictions would demand crystal ball metrics

A month in politics is infinity. Guessing the prospects on the election a little less than a year from now is nothing more than subjective postering.

[NMDemDist2]

7. he called it right 4 years ago

Cook report 2003

http://cookpolitical.com/overview/2003/august03.php

[Cheney Killed Bambi]

8. I'm Cheney Killed Bambi

Of the DU Political Report, and I give Hillary a 67% chance of winning the nomination and a 64% chance of winning the Presidency. So there!

[Didereaux]

9. I tend to agree with the nomination chances, but of all the candidates,,,

...Hillarys' fortunes in the general will be most influenced by events out of her control, or seemingly the American publics as well. IF Cheney manages to attack Iran and throws the economy into chaos(temporary or not) it will be perceived by Joe Public as an external threat by them 'ragheads', a perception carefully cultivated by Cheney & Co. If bin Laden is captured or killed the public will once again percieve the repugnants as strong and Democrats weak. This election, no matter who the candidates are in either party will be decided by a very small percentage of independent voters: posivly as few as 2-3%.

If on the other hand no 'doomsday' threats can be implemeted by Cheney & Co. then Hillarys' chances are up with those of say Edwards or Biden, I personally believe that Obama simply will not be the nominee for many reasons(no this is NOT the thread to veer off into such matters, it is about the chances of Hillary being nominated and elected).

my opinion at any rate.