Tid-bits and Oddities in the new NH poll (CNN/WMUR)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

"Made up my mind" went up 7 since September. "Still trying to decide" dropped 8% since September. But undecideds were 11% in September and 11% today.

Bill Richardson has jumped up to 12% support. Percentage of voters who think Richardson will win the nomination: 0%

Percent of independents who plan to vote in the Democratic primary: 65% (unchanged from September)

The percentages in the September poll add up to 100%. The percentages in the new poll add up to 102%. (Presumably due to rounding) Which leads to this perplexing line... Clinton lost 7 points. Obama picked up 2 of them. Edwards picked up 1 of them. Richardson picked up 6 of them. (Biden lost 1, but Someone Else gained 1, so that's a wash)

Biden has not gained at all: June-5% July-4% September-3% Novemeber-2%

The category Would not support under any circumstances Clinton-22% Obama-22% Edwards-22% (Edwards about the same, but Clinton and Obama both up from about 15% to 22% since September.)

Will win nomination: Clinton 69%
Tough enough to stand up to the Republicans: Clinton-50%

Possible sign of unconscious racial assumptions: For whatever reason, Obama's rating on Edward's signature issue of poverty is easily Obama's strongest issue in the poll. It's the only issue of five that Obama leads on, and the only issue Clinton does not lead on.

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2007/images/11/20/relnh6b.pdf

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. PS re: "unconscious racial assumptions" The point is not that Obama is

notably weak on poverty as an issue, but that many voters think of poverty primarily as a "black issue." (I would have expected Iraq to be a bigger issue-winner for Obama because he talks about it a lot.)

Few voters know candidates positions on much of anything. They just parrot advertising. In 1984 polls said that people supported Gary Hart because he had "new ideas." Very few of those people could have identified any new ideas, but "New Ideas" was his campaign slogan.

In this NH poll Clinton crushes the competition of Health Care simply because her name is associated with health care. (She's associated with having failed to implement a national health care plan, but people are not big on details.)