POLLS -- IA: Hillary 25, Edwards 23, Obama 22 :::: NH: Hillary 37, Obama 22, Edwards 9

[jefferson_dem]

And, check out HuckleberryHound in IA!

Iowa:
Dems: Clinton 25, Edwards 23, Obama 22, Richardson 12
GOP: Romney 27, Huckabee 21, Giuliani 15, Thompson 9, McCain 4, Paul 4

NH:
Dems: Clinton 37, Obama 22, Edwards 9, Richardson 6
GOP: Romney 34, McCain 16, Giuliani 16, Paul 8, Huckabee 6, Thompson 5

FULL RESULTS HERE ---> http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_111307.pdf

****

CURRENT TRENDS, courtesy of www.pollster.com

[ellisonz]

1. I think we're heading to a split.

Hillary will lose to Obama or Edwards in Iowa and will hold on by 5-10% in New Hampshire.

[Joe the Revelator]

2. I think if she loses Iowa she's done in NH

or eeks out a below expectation win, which would hurt as bad as a lost.

[rinsd]

5. So Obama or Edwards could survive a loss in IA?

[Joe the Revelator]

9. Unlikely that Obama could.

If Edwards comes in a CLOSE 2nd he might be able to hang on, but he'd have to win NH. If Hillary win Iowa, I'd look to see who came in third place. If it's someone like Biden, then he could have a good showing in NH.



But I highly suspect that Hillary is cooked in Iowa.

[rinsd]

14. Hillary is cooked in IA? Based upon what exactly?

I think Obama or Hillary could survive a 2nd place finish (though preferably a close one) in IA.

If either was then able to take NV or NH or both, they would be doing well going into SC and then Sooper-Dooper Tuesday.

I think that they need at least 2 wins out of the 1st 4 primaries to be able to win the nomination.

[TheWraith]

43. I think either could survive second place, but probably not third. NT

[JDPriestly]

10. I do to. That will mean she is an East Coast candidate.

[ellisonz]

13. I'd give her some regional advantage.

Personally, I think it'll be interesting if it drags out as long as the Clintons lose.

[jefferson_dem]

24. Actually, she's the only one of the top three who can deal with a loss in IA.

She would be bloodied and have to slog through the "end of inevitability" media narrative but she would definitely survive. It's been said over and over...but it's true. If Edwards doesn't win...he's done.

[TheWraith]

44. Agreed. It would shake every non-hard-core supporter

And every person who supported her because they thought she was cruising to the nomination. It would be the Dean collapse of 2004, but worse, because half her campaign has been pushing the juggernaut message.

[rinsd]

3. Holy comprehensive poll batman! There's a treasure trove of demo questions!

Thanks jeff_dem!

[Lucinda]

4. Is that a move into second for JE in Iowa?

I like it. :) And as for Huckabee in Iowa, thats really bad news.

[brazos121200]

6. Hillary's recent gaffes don't seem to be hurting her in these

two states, but it's still really too early to tell. If one or more of the other candidates don't catch her in at least one of these states, it's probably all over. I can't see any of them going on to beat her after she has won the first two contests. I think Obama has the best chance to do it because Edwards seems to be falling in both states. I believe if Hillary started to fall in the polls because of her recent stumbles, it would encourage Al Gore to get in the race.

[bluestateguy]

7. Obama and Edwards are dividing the anti-Hillary vote

And if they divide the anti-Hillary vote about evenly, that will allow Hillary to win the nomination.

[brazos121200]

12. That's what I have been noticing. I think if one of them would

withdraw the other one could go ahead of Hillary in the polling. But getting one of them to do that before the first primary is highly unlikely if not impossible. I'm sure some of the support for either one of them would go to Hillary but probably not that much.

[Adelante]

18. From polls I've seen recently

Both Obama's and Edwards's vote splits to Clinton 2:1, rather than to each other. It would seem both men's constituencies are less of an anti-Hillary vote than is claimed by online supporters.

[kestrel91316]

8. IMHO Edwards will win IA. And that's JUST FINE with me.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. I Think Edwards And Trippi Are Playing Obama And It's Distressing

They are trying to use his campaign as a trojan horse to weaken Hillary...But how the Hell does that help Obama?

Anyway I am sure that Hillary would rather face Edwards mano a mano than Obama... Because if Edwards disposes of Obama the lion's share of Obama's African American vote which is around 40% will go to Hillary...That, coupled with her strong support from women will easily put her over the top... I don't see her losing the Democratic nomination while getting fifty or so percent of the women's vote and ninety or so percent of the African American vote...

Barack Obama is my electoral second choice and sentimental first choice... I'm saddened he let himself be "played"....

[MalloyLiberal]

15. Um...man that's a stretch GO Edwards!

[geek tragedy]

27. Huh?

He's within the margin of error of Clinton in Iowa. Very possibly dead even if you factor in second place votes.

[rinsd]

16. Jeff-dem in case this poll has you a little down, Obama just a made a move in the SV poll for IA.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_111407.htm

[Adelante]

19. Thanks, rinsd

Hillary Clinton 29%
Barack Obama 27%
John Edwards 20%
Bill Richardson 7%
Joseph Biden 5%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Undecided 10%

Results are based on telephone interviews with 600 likely Republican cacus goers and 600 likely Democratic cacus goers, aged 18+, and conducted November 9-12, 2007. The margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

[rinsd]

21. I know SV is a GOP firm but he did move up 4pts maing it very close.

:hi:

[jefferson_dem]

20. Yo! Thanks, rinsd.

This is definitely the crazy season! Great fun for us poll-junkies.

Iowa is so close and so unpredictable. Pollster makes a deal about different screens used to determine "likely caucus voters." Guess it's time I study up...

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/screens_rdd_the_abcpost_survey.php

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/a_different_approach_the_univ.php

[rinsd]

22. Iowa will be insane.

I would not be surprised to see multiple lead changes between now and Jan 3rd.

[Tejanocrat]

17. Favorable/unfavorable among Iowa caucus: Hillary 59%/20%, Edwards 73%/12%, Obama 72%/8%

[Bullet1987]

23. Hillary has the most to lose if she loses Iowa

because she's the frontrunner. Depending on if she's #2 or #3 will tell a lot. Obama can afford to lose Iowa, Edwards can't. Obama can still count on Independents in New Hampshire...they're the WILDCARD for that caucus.

[jefferson_dem]

25. Other than winning or a strong second by Obama...

the best he could hope for is that McLame doesn't surprise with a good showing in IA.

EJ Dionne was saying today that Obama is battling with Ron Paul for the Independent support in NH. Dayum! That's a scary thought for this Obama supporter.

[Cameron27]

26. I think that's a fair assessment,

although Clinton was really never expected to win there at all if I remember things correctly.

[Bucky]

28. Huckabee will kill McCain. They're genuine conservatives.

A few people can smell the difference. People falling for the Giuliani, Thompson, or Romney shticks are real suckers. Sell them your Florida swamp land. In this perverted environment, only one actual conservative can survive. My guess is people won't ditch Huck for McCain, but NH voters may bail on McCain for Huckabee. Plus Iowa always winnows the field down for the New Hampshire voters.

McCain's a decent man with dumb ideas on government who got desperate and kissed all the wrong asses at all the wrong times. Plus he's a bitch.

At 52, Huckabee has a future and will certainly end up as the Republican nominee sometime in the next 13 years. But not next year. He raised taxes and for that he must atone.

Put your money on Romney. These people nominated Bush. Twice. Most of 'em couldn't smell a phony if they stepped in its yardshit.

[slick8790]

29. Interesting insight, thanks.

For us Dems, despite anything anyone may say, this is definitely still a 3 way race in IA.

[Cameron27]

31. Yep it's still a 3 way race, and

anything can happen. I'm hoping that Biden's precisely that anything who can shakeup the top 3 lol.

[Bucky]

34. I want Biden too. But then again I want Sigourney Weaver to marry me.

Won't happen. But I dream. I dream.

[Cameron27]

41. ROFL

True, so true. (except the Sigourney Weaver part)

[MethuenProgressive]

30. Edwards is running his "Cancer Card" TV spot over and over and over in NH

It's not helping, John.


edit removed an <

[AtomicKitten]

32. 5th K&R for this three-way clusterf*ck to the White House.

[mzmolly]

33. HuckleberryHound ?

:rofl:

[crispini]

35. Hm, Iowa is clearly within the MOE

This could get interesting. I would really like it if it dragged out for awhile and the rest of us had a chance to weigh in on our choice.

[Robbins]

36. Iowa

Edwards has to win Iowa.As a Edwards supporter I think he Is done If he Is not first In Iowa.If he
wins Iowa the next test will be In South Carolina.If Hillary were to finish third she Is In poential
trouble.If Obama wins Iowa I except It will be even closer In New Hamphserie.Remember Kerry took his
Iowa win In 2004 and leapfrogged over Dean In New Hamphserire.If Richardson does get 12 percent or more In Iowa that means he could be a factor especilly If Edwards loses In Iowa.However he must then
win or do a strong second In Nevada.If Huchabee finishes second In Iowa he could be a foactor In the
Republican side.Thompson Is tanking.If mccain comes out a strong second In new Hampshere he Is still
In the race but he would have to win South Caarolana.If Romney beats Mccain and Thompson In South
Carolana.The Republican race after South Carolana could be Guiliana,Romney,and Huckabee.

[crispini]

37. I think it depends on how MUCH they win by.

If any one of the candidates gets completely whipped by a significant percentage, then, yeah, that would be really bad, but if it's close, then the candidate will be able to say "yeah, it's close" and keep going -- that's my thoughts, anyway. :)

[Renew Deal]

38. McCain is at the same level as Ron Paul. It's over for McCain

McCain should just pack it in and endorse Guiliani now.

[Chulanowa]

39. Why is Gore there, but not Kucinich?

I would figure they could at least stick to people who are actually running.

[IndianaGreen]

40. Looking at the graphs, it seems to me that Hillary has IA and NH in the bag

Reports of Hillary's demise were greatly exaggerated. :-(

[gmudem]

46. Huh?

Where the hell do you get that from out of this poll? They are all within the margin of error.

[jefferson_dem]

42. NOTE: These polls were in the field November 2-12...

so they do not register much of any fallout from the J-J dinner and "PlantGate."

[calteacherguy]

45. The "current trends" shows Obama and Clinton rising, as well as Biden to a lesser extent.

Representative of more people making up their minds, I suppose. It's important to realize more than 50% in Iowa still say they haven't made up thier mind.